4/15/2014 CNY Quarterly GDP (2200 EDT)
Forecast: 7.4%
Actual: 7.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9312 (2159:29)
1st Peak @ 0.9334 – 2201 (2 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.9321 – 2202 (3 min)
13 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.9309 – 2224 (25 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Matching report caused a long spike of 22 ticks that reached the R1 Mid Pivot and launched at :29 sec in a gradual rise. With JOBB your long order would have filled at 0.9318 with 1 tick of slippage, and shown an easy ramp up to 15 ticks at the R1 Mid Pivot as a optimal exit. After the peak, it reversed for 13 ticks in the next bar to the PP Pivot. Then it continued into an extended reversal for another 12 ticks in the next 22 min as it reached the 100/200 SMAs. With the matching report, a trade on the HG would not be recommended.

10/20/2014 CNY Quarterly GDP (2200 EDT)
Forecast: 7.2%
Actual: 7.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL…INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.8740 (2159:20)
1st Peak @ 0.8724 – 2159:57 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.8776 – 2200:30 (2 min)
52 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.8782 – 2201:42 (3 min)
58 ticks

Pullback to 0.8763 – 2205 (6 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report caused only a 3 tick bump at about 2159:29 when released, but a delayed short spike of 15 ticks at 2149:57 to the S2 Pivot, then a reversal of 52 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot in the next 30 sec. The safe play would have been to cancel the order at about 2159:40 with no decisive move seen. If not, you would have filled short at about 0.8733 with 2 ticks of slippage then likely stopped out at 0.8740 with a loss of 7 ticks including 2 ticks of slippage. Fortunately the relatively tight stop makes the loss small and less impacting. It continued to climb to 0.8782 late in the :02 bar to eclipse the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 19 ticks in 3 min to the old HOD position. After that it continued to oscillate between the R1 Mid Pivot and R2 Mid Pivot for the next hour or so. With the matching report and unstable reaction, a trade on the HG would not be recommended.

1/19/2014 CNY Quarterly GDP (2100 EST)
Forecast: 7.6%
Actual: 7.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (Early release)
Started @ 0.8743 (2159:14)
1st Peak @ 0.8758 – 2200 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.8743 – 2201 (2 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8772 – 2106 (7 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.8753 – 2123 (24 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report that was 0.1% better than forecast released about 6 sec early to cause a long spike of 15 ticks that reached the R1 Pivot, then chopped between the origin and the R2 Pivot 2 times. With JOBB and a properly synchronized clock, you would have seen the bracket activate after the initial burst and a small retreat. Fortunately there was a lull in the movement for about 5 sec to allow the orders to be cancelled before a fill would have happened. If you had not cancelled the order, with JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.8755 with 1 tick of slippage. It hovered near the R2 Pivot for about 15 sec, so look to exit near break even. After the reversal to the origin on the :01 bar, it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 14 more ticks as it eclipsed the R2 Mid Pivot on the :06 bar. Then it reversed for 19 ticks in the next 17 min, back to the 50 SMA. We also advise placing a manual order on the HG in the same direction as the 6A reacts with the anticipation of a delayed move about 2-4 min later. In this case, buy the HG at about 3.3480 and look for about 6-8 ticks since it was a narrow offset on the result.