Quarterly GDP | JO Bracket Breakout

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10/17/2012 CNY Quarterly GDP (1600 HI time / 2200 EDT)
Forecast: 7.4%
Actual: 7.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
spike/reverse
Started @ 1.0319 (1559)
1st Peak @ 1.0346 – 1601 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.0329 – 1610 (11 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Matching report impressed the traders. This caused a decent long spike of 27 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar, crossing all 3 of the SMAs in its path and eclipsing the R1 Pivot. The market had been trading sideways before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0324 with no slippage. Keep an eye on how it behaves as it challenges the SMA barrier then after it easily clears, look to exit at the R1 Pivot at 1.0344 for 20 ticks. The reversal yielded 17 ticks in about 9 min after the peak, retreating to eclipse the 50 SMA. After that it tried to achieve a 2nd peak, and managed a double top about an hour later.

7/12/2012 CNY Quarterly GDP (1600 HI time / 2200 EDT)
Forecast: 7.7%
Actual: 7.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECisive
Started @ 0.9993 (1559)
1st Peak @ 0.9984 – 1601 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.0018 – 1602 (3 min)
34 ticks

Pullback to 0.9992 – 1621 (22 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Barely negative and nearly matching report caused indecision. This caused a short move of 9 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar, hitting all 3 major SMAs, then a reversal long for 34 ticks peaking on the :02 bar. The market had been trading sideways prior to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.9988 with no slippage. It fell to 0.9984, then hovered between 0.9984 and 0.9989 for 15 sec before reversing long. This would give you ample time to close out with 1-2 ticks or at break even. The other play you could make would be moving the stop loss in by 10 ticks at 0.9993 so you are only risking 5 ticks. This way you are protected, but if it dives you would be able to capture the profit. It reversed for 34 ticks, then retreated for 26 ticks to eclipse the 50 SMA, then rebounded long again.

4/12/2012 CNY Quarterly GDP (1600 HI time / 2200 EDT)
Forecast: 8.4%
Actual: 8.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPike with 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0200 (1559)
1st Peak @ 1.0159 – 1602 (3 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.0173 – 1604 (5 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0145 – 1653 (54 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 1.0159 – 1729 (90 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Results released 1 min early, so spike moved at 15:59:00. Fairly negative report disappointed the traders. This caused a short spike of 41 ticks that peaked on the :02 bar, crossing the PP Pivot and nearly reaching the S1 Pivot. Due to the gravity of the report and the infrequency, it was able to sustain the large drop and kept chopping lower after a small 14 tick reversal. The market had been trading sideways prior to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0191 with about 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get at least 15 ticks toward the end of the :00 bar and closer to 30 if you were patient. The S1 is also a convenient exit point and would have given you 34 ticks on the:06 bar. It achieved a Final peak of 55 ticks at 1.0145 on the :53 bar. The reversal yielded 14 ticks in about 36 min after the Final peak, crossing the 50 SMA, then peaking on the S1 Pivot and 100 SMA.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.17.12

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6A 12 12 (1 Min) 04.12.12