6E 03-15 (1 Min) 3.2.2015

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Mar 252015
 

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 3_2_2015

3/2/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: -0.5%
Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 1.1219
1st Bar Span – 1.1215 to 1.1220 (1 min)
-4 to +1 ticks

Notes: The broader reading fell short of the forecast by 0.2% while the core reading matched the forecast. This caused a dull but choppy reaction with the movement all contained by the 5 tick bracket. Cancel the order after 10 sec or earlier with no fill and seeing the small frenetic activity.  It did not have a longer term reaction either as it traded sideways on the 20 SMA for about an hour.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 3.31.2015

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Apr 052015
 

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 3_31_2015

3/31/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: -0.3%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.7%
DULL REACTION – NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.0733
1st Peak @ 1.0740 – 0500:54 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.0732 – 0502 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd peak @ 1.0745 – 0509 (9 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0735 – 0516 (16 min)
10 ticks

Notes: The broader reading exceeded the forecast by 0.2% while the core reading matched the forecast with an upward previous revision. This caused a dull but choppy reaction with the movement all contained by the 5 tick bracket initially. It took nearly 40 sec to breach 5 ticks on the long move so cancel the order after 10 sec with no fill and seeing the small frenetic activity. It eventually hit 7 ticks on the 13 SMA then reversed 8 ticks on the next bar. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 7 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA before reversing 10 ticks in 7 min.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 4.30.2015

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May 022015
 

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 4_30_2015

4/30/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.0%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – NO FILL (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Started @ 1.1215
1st Peak @ 1.1227 – 0501:17 (2 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.1189 – 0510 (10 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 1.1218 – 0523 (23 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.1191 – 0530 (16 min)
10 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading matched the forecast with no previous revisions. This caused a slow developing long spike of 12 ticks that reached the 50 SMA after 77 sec. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you should have cancelled the order after 10-15 sec with no fill and the matching results to be safe. In this case leaving the orders on the chart would have worked out, but that is normally not the case. After the peak, it reversed 38 ticks in 8 min after crossing the 100 SMA. This would have been a very safe reversal trade due to the 12 tick initial move, the 50 SMA, and the matching results. After that it pulled back 29 ticks in 13 min to the 100 SMA before reversing 27 ticks in 7 min.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 6.30.2015

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Aug 022015
 

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 6_30_2015

6/30/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.1152
1st Peak @ 1.1159 – 0500:00 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.1145 – 0500:41 (1 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1190 – 0513 (13 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 1.1170 – 0522 (22 min)
20 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading matched the forecast with no previous revisions. This caused a quick pop long for 7 ticks that backed off and hovered before reversing later in the bar. It peaked on the S1 Pivot then reversed to the LOD. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled long at 1.1157 with no slippage then seen it hover 1 tick in the red to allow a near breakeven exit. It reversed 14 ticks late in the bar before climbing for a 2nd peak of 31 more ticks in 12 min after crossing all 3 Major SMAs and nearly reaching the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 9 min after crossing the 100 SMA.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 7.31.2015

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Sep 042015
 

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 7_31_2015

7/31/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.0945
1st Peak @ 1.0957 – 0501:30 (2 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0966 – 0513 (13 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.0954 – 0527 (22 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0995 – 0629 (89 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 1.0975 – 0714 (134 min)
20 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading bested the forecast by 0.2% with no previous revisions. This caused an initial dull reaction with minimal movement until 47 sec into the :01 bar. Then it achieved 12 ticks in the next 43 sec. This should have been an easy decision to cancel the order, but it would not have hurt you to leave the orders on the board. It turned into a slow developing Fan that achieved a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in 11 min to the R1 Pivot, followed by a 12 tick reversal in 9 min to the 50 SMA, then a final peak of 29 more ticks in the next 67 min after crossing the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 45 min.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8.31.2015

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Sep 172015
 

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8_31_2015

8/31/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 1.0%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1204
1st Peak @ 1.1218 – 0500:38 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.1206 – 0502 (2 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 1.1213 – 0505 (5 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.1200 – 0513 (13 min)
13 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading also matched the forecast with no previous revisions. This caused a long spike of 14 ticks in 38 sec that started just below the PP Pivot and climbed to reach the 100 / 50 SMAs before reversing. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 1.1210 with 1 tick of slippage then trickled up to hover at 1.1217 as it hit resistance. Look to exit there with about 7 ticks. After that it reversed 12 ticks in 1 min to the PP Pivot before pulling back 7 ticks in 3 min to the 20 SMA. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 8 min.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9.30.2015

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Dec 212015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9_30_2015

9/30/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.0%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.1%
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.9%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.1241
1st Peak @ 1.1232 – 0500:01 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.1243 – 0500:02 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 1.1233 – 0505 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.1249 – 0518 (18 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1235 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: stopped – 1.1243 – 8 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1224(below the LOD and S1 Pivot

Notes: Quick whipsaw resulted in stop out to the tick.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10.30.2015

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Dec 212015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10_30_2015

10/30/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0600 EDT)
Forecast: 0.0%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1014
1st Peak @ 1.1006 – 0600:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.1014 – 0600:05 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1001 – 0604 (4 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.1012 – 0610 (10 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1009
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.1009 – Breakeven after 30 sec (hovering)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1004 (below the R1 Pivot and 200 SMA)

Notes: Quick short spike and recoil, but it trickled lower in the next 2 minute for a nice 2nd peak.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 12.2.2015

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Dec 212015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 12_2_2015

12/2/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.1%
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 1.1%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 1.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0624
1st Peak @ 1.0601 – 0501:14 (2 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.0610 – 0504 (4 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0584 – 0521 (21 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.0593 – 0531 (31 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.0618
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.0602 – 16 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.0608 (below the S1 Pivot and LOD)

Notes: With the much bigger than normal spike, look for a continued push lower and wait until the 13 SMA is challenged to exit.

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1.5.2016

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Jan 142016
 

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1_5_2016

1/5/2015 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.2%
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 1.0%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0792
Whipsaw between 1.0786 and 1.0796 – 0500:01 (1 min)
-6/+4 ticks

Reversal to 1.0803 – 0500:30 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 1.0785 – 0506 (6 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.0798 – 0517 (17 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.0787 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.0895 – 8 tick loss (stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Unfortunate whipsaw for an 8 tick loss. Still note the nice short setup after 0503 with 2 failed attempts to climb above the 50 SMA.

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