3/24/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 51.9
Previous Revision: +1.2 to 49.7
Services PMI
Forecast: 47.9
Actual: 51.4
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 47.2
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3796
1st Peak @ 1.3839 – 0401 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.3812 – 0404 (4 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report normally breaks 2 min early at 0358, but the protocol was changed on this report to be at 0400. The manufacturing reading came in 2.1 points above the forecast to impress the market with a healthy upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 3.5 points above the forecast with a negligible upward revision. All of this served to cause a large long spike of 43 ticks on the :01 bar that was shortly sustained. It started just underneath the 100/200 SMAs, then crossed the LOD and R2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3811 with 12 ticks of slippage then seen it hover between 7 and 10 ticks of profit for most of the rest of the bar. After the opening few seconds, if your profit target was not filled, move the profit target to about 1.3820, just above the R2 Mid Pivot. After the :01 bar, it fell for another 7 ticks to 1.3812 on the :04 bar, then made a small pullback above the R2 Mid Pivot before trading sideways heading into the German report release.

5/22/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 51.1
Actual: 49.3
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 51.2
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.3
Actual: 49.2
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 50.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3674
1st Peak @ 1.3654 – 0301 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.3666 – 0305 (5 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 1.3658 – 0318 (18 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.3667 – 0329 (29 min)
9 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.8 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with a negligible upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.1 points below the forecast with a negligible upward revision. All of this served to cause a moderate short spike of 20 ticks on the :01 bar that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3663 with 8 ticks of slippage then seen it fall to the S1 Mid Pivot and retreat after 3 sec. A profit target of 8 or less would have filled, otherwise look to exit at 59 or 58 where it hovered in the middle of the :01 bar. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in 4 min to the 13 SMA, then it fell for 8 ticks in the next 13 min. Then it reversed for 9 ticks as it headed into the German report release.

7/24/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 48.5
Actual: 47.6
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 48.2
Services PMI
Forecast: 48.9
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3452
1st Peak @ 1.3458 – 0300:41 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.3447 – 0316 (16 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.9 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with a small upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.5 points above the forecast with no revision. All of this conflicted and caused a tame long reaction as the services reading took the lead. We saw a long spike of 8 ticks on the :01 bar that crossed the 200 SMA 3 Major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3605 with 5 ticks of slippage then seen it hover around your fill point before falling later. Since this report looks for a 2nd peak very often and the news was very bearishly biased, it would be wise to be patient and wait for a fall to 1.3600 or 1.3598 with the R1 Mid Pivot. It achieved a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks 11 min later as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot and OOD. Then it reversed for 11 ticks in the next 17 min, crossing the 50 SMA as it headed into the German report release.

9/23/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 47.1
Actual: 48.8
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 46.9
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 49.4
Previous Revision: -0.8 to 50.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.2856
1st Peak @ 1.2869 – 0301:29 (2 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2861 – 0304 (4 min)
8 ticks

Double Top @ 1.2869 – 0309 (9 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.2861 – 0315 (15 min)
8 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.7 points above the forecast to impress the market with a moderate upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 0.8 points below the forecast with a large downward revision. All of this conflicted but caused a small stable long spike of 13 ticks over 2 bars that crossed the 200/100 SMAs near the origin and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2859 with no slippage then seen it hover between 1-2 ticks of profit for most of the bar. With the results conflicting and the R1 Pivot only 2 ticks higher and yet to be contested, it would be safe and wise to exit there. It continued to climb for 8 more ticks in the next bar, but that was not predicted or predictable. Then it reversed 8 ticks back to the R1 Pivot in 2 min. It repeated the move for a double top and reversal back to the R1 Pivot in 11 min, then traded sideways into the German report release.

11/20/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 48.9
Actual: 47.6
Previous Revision: +1.2 to 48.5
Services PMI
Forecast: 48.6
Actual: 48.8
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 48.3
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.2540
1st Peak @ 1.2535 – 0300:00 (1 min)
-5 ticks

Reversal to 1.2542 – 0300:01 (1 min)
7 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.2560 – 0303 (3 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 1.2550 – 0308 (8 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.2577 – 0318 (18 min)
27 ticks

Pullback to 1.2565 – 0327 (27 min)
12 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.3 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with a strong upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in nearly matching the forecast with a small upward revision. This caused a small whipsaw of 7 ticks span in the first second as the revision and result of the manufacturing data conflicted. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2536 with 1 tick of slippage then stopped out at 1.2541 for a 5 tick loss. After the initial volatility, it traded sideways in a dull manner for the rest of the bar then reversed strongly for 25 ticks in 2 min to the PP Pivot. After a 10 tick pullback to the OOD in 5 min, it reversed 27 ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot in 10 min. Then it pulled back 12 ticks in 9 min to the 20 SMA as it headed into the release of the German report at the bottom of the hour.