2/20/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 49.7
Actual: 47.7
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 49.2
Services PMI
Forecast: 49.9
Actual: 53.4
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 49.4
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1359
1st Peak @ 1.1355 – 0300:02 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 1.1363 – 0302 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1319 – 0316 (16 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.1340 – 0329 (29 min)
21 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 2.0 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with a mild downward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 3.5 pts above the forecast with a negligible downward revision. This caused an initial dull / indecisive reaction of only 4 ticks as the news was conflicting and nearly equally offsetting. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 1.1356 with no slippage, then allowed an exit with 2-3 ticks loss as it hovered before it continued to reverse for another 5 ticks into the :02 bar. Then it fell for a large 2nd peak for 36 more ticks in 14 min to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. After that it reversed 21 ticks to the 50 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot in 13 min just before the release of the German report.

4/23/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 49.4
Actual: 48.4
Previous Revision: +0.6 to 48.8
Services PMI
Forecast: 52.5
Actual: 50.8
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 52.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0697
1st Peak @ 1.0679 – 0303:40 (4 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.0690 – 0307 (7 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0676 – 0311 (11 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.0691 – 0321 (21 min)
15 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.0 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint the market with a moderate upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.7 pts below the forecast with a moderate downward previous revision. This caused a slow developing short spike of 18 ticks in nearly 4 min to reach the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 1.0693 with 1 tick of slippage, then it would have trickled a little lower and hovered to allow a quick exit with 2 ticks. With the results consistently disappointing, it would be safe to wait for a longer term reaction as the average yield on this report is 17 ticks. It continued to fall for the next 3 min to allow an exit at 1.0680 for 13 ticks. Then it reversed 11 ticks in 3 min to the 13 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 4 min. After that it reversed 15 ticks in 10 min to the 50 SMA as it headed into the German report.

6/23/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 50.1
Actual: 50.5
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 49.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 52.5
Actual: 54.1
Previous Revision: +1.2 to 52.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1276
1st Peak @ 1.1288 – 0300:00 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.1272 – 0303 (3 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1291 – 0316 (16 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.1274 – 0322 (22 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.4 points above the forecast to mildly impress the market with a negligible revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.6 pts above the forecast with a moderate upward previous revision. This caused a long spike of 12 ticks immediately to cross the 100 / 200 SMAs near the origin and breach the upper limit of the trend channel established 30+ min before the report. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 1.1283 with 4 ticks of slippage, then it peaked and hovered at about 1.1286 to allow 3 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 16 ticks in 2 min before stepping higher for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 13 min at the trend channel upper boundary. After that it reversed 17 ticks to the 50 SMA in 6 min, then recovered a bit as it headed into the German report.

8/21/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 48.6
Previous Revision: n/a
Services PMI
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 51.8
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1288
1st Peak @ 1.1279 – 0300:15 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.1285 – 0303 (3 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.1254 – 0330 (30 min)
34 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.2 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with no revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 0.3 pts below the forecast with no previous revision. This caused a short spike of 9 ticks in 15 sec that reached the S1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 1.1284 with 1 tick of slippage, then it peaked and hovered with 2-3 ticks. As this report often goes for a 2nd peak and only reversed 6 ticks, staying in for a larger drop would have been prudent as it fell 25 more ticks in the next 27 min into the German report after crossing the R2 Pivot.

10/23/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 50.7
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 50.6
Services PMI
Forecast: 51.9
Actual: 52.3
Previous Revision: +0.7 to 51.9
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.1122
1st Peak @ 1.1116 – 0259:59 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1126 – 0300:00 (1 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 1.1113 – 0300:54 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.1136 – 0312 (12 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1099 – 0319 (19 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.1109 – 0328 (28 min)
10 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1118 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.1123 – stopped 5 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Strange reaction that went the wrong direction and was volatile in the secondary movement.