French Flash Manufacturing PMI | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 4.23.2013

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 072013

4/23/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 44.2
Actual: 44.4
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 44.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3047 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3068 – 0259 (1 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.3090 – 0316 (18 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.3080 – 0320 (22 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0358. The reading came in 0.2 points above the forecast to mildly impress, but the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.8 points better than the forecast. This caused a 21 tick long spike over 1 bar that peaked on the R1 Mid Pivot, using all 3 SMAs in a tight fist at the origin as support. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3052 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at the R1 Mid Pivot on the :59 or :00 bar for 15 ticks, or leave a few contracts active for the highly likely 2nd peak that gained another 22 ticks as the overall news was very bullish. After the 1st peak, it ascended on the :02 bar for another 15 ticks, then achieved a final peak of 7 more ticks after a brief reversal on the :16 bar. It never fell below the 13 SMA until the German report broke as it hovered around the R1 Pivot prior to the release.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 3.21.2013

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 072013

3/21/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 44.4
Actual: 43.9
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 43.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2955 (0358)
1st Peak @ 1.2935 – 0359 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.2943 – 0400 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2930 – 0407 (9 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.2940 – 0419 (21 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0358. The reading came in 0.5 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint, but the simultaneous Services reading came in 2.2 points off the forecast. This caused a 20 tick short spike over 1 bar that crossed all 3 of the major SMAs near the origin. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2951 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit at the LOD on the :59 bar or it is normally safe to wait for a few more ticks in the following bars for 12 – 15 ticks. After the 1st peak, it pulled back to reverse for 8 ticks in 1 min. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks 8 min later, before the final reversal reclaimed 10 ticks 21 min after the report. Then it chopped sideways just before the German report released.

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 2.21.2013

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 072013

2/21/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 43.9
Actual: 43.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3275 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3258 – 0300 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.3270 – 0312 (14 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3255 – 0321 (23 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.3263 – 0326 (28 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The reading came in 0.3 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint, but the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.8 points off the forecast. This caused an average 17 tick short spike over 2 bars that crossed all 3 of the major SMAs near the terminus. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3271 with no slippage. Look to exit in the midst of the SMAs on the :59 or :00 bar for about 7-12 ticks. After the 1st peak, it struggled to reverse for 12 ticks in 12 min to eclipse the 20 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks 9 min later, before the final reversal reclaimed 8 ticks just before the German report released.

6E 03-13 (1 Min) 1.24.2013

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 072013

1/24/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 44.9
Actual: 42.9
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3335 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3301 – 0259 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.3311 – 0300 (2 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3291 – 0308 (10 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 1.3306 – 0320 (22 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The reading came in 2 points below the forecast to strongly disappoint. This caused a large 34 tick short spike over 1 bar that crossed the 200 SMA near the origin and the PP Pivot about halfway down. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3329 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit as the bar expires near the LOD with about 25 ticks. After the 1st peak, it bounced up off of the LOD for 10 ticks, then fell for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks a few min later. The reversal snagged about 15 ticks in another 10 min, fighting through the 20 and 13 SMAs then traded sideways for about 8 min awaiting the German report results.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 11.21.12

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 212012

11/21/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2200 HI time / 0300 EST)
Forecast: 44.1
Actual: 44.7
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 43.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.2847 (2158)
1st Peak @ 1.2854 – 2159 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.2839 – 2211 (13 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2128. The reading came in only 0.6 points above the forecast to slightly impress. This also broke on the evening before the US Thanksgiving holiday with considerable less market volume. This caused a dull 7 tick long spike over 1 bars that had to contend with all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot 2-7 ticks a few ticks above the origin. The light volume, narrow report offset, and close SMAs all restrained the initial spike. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2850 with no slippage if you did not cancel the order. Look to exit in between the 50 and 100 SMAs with 2-3 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed to eclipse the R1 Pivot by 2 ticks for 15 ticks 11 min later. After that it trended upward back to the 200 SMA and traded sideways awaiting the German report results.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 232012

10/23/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2100 HI time / 0300 EDT)
Forecast: 43.9
Actual: 43.5
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 42.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.2998 (2058)
1st Peak @ 1.2992 – 2101 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.3002 – 2110 (12 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2058. The reading came in nearly only 0.4 points below the forecast to slightly disappoint. This caused a dull 6 tick short spike over 3 bars that bottomed at the 200/100 SMAs. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2995 with no slippage. Move the stop loss to 1.3001 (2 tick above the short term hi and above 1.3000), then look to exit at the 200 SMA Pivot with 2-3 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 10 ticks (1 tick below the HOD) about 10 min later, then traded sideways to wait on the German report release.

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 09.19.12

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 192012

9/19/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2100 HI time / 0300 EDT)
Forecast: 46.5
Actual: 42.6
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 46.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2992 (2058)
1st Peak @ 1.2975 – 2059 (1 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2952 – 2107 (9 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.2969 – 2124 (26 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2058. The reading came in nearly 3 points below the forecast to strongly disappoint. This caused a 17 tick short spike over 1 bar that crossed no SMAs and bottomed 1 tick above the S2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2987 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at the S2 Pivot, which the :02 bar crashed through for 13 ticks, or if you noticed the severity of the report, wait out the 2nd peak for 30 or more ticks. After the 1st peak, it retreated 6 ticks, but unable to reach the 13 SMA, it quickly dove again for a 2nd peak of 40 total ticks. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in 17 min, crossing the 13 and 20 SMAs. After that it fell to the 20 SMA to wait on the German report results.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 08.22.12

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 222012

8/22/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2100 HI time / 0300 EDT)
Forecast: 43.7
Actual: 46.2
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 45.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2550 (2058)
1st Peak @ 1.2567 – 2100 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.2557 – 2106 (8 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2576 – 2113 (15 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.2567 – 2120 (22 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2058. The reading came in 2.5 points above the forecast to strongly impress. This caused a 17 tick long spike over 2 bars that did not cross any SMA or Pivot, but extended the HOD 11 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2555 with 2 ticks of slippage. With the relatively large spike, I would exit at the top of the :59 bar with 10 ticks. No SMAs were crossed, but the HOD extension will limit the buying power. After the peak, it reversed for 10 ticks to the 13 SMA, then ascended for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks about 12 min later. Then it reversed for 9 ticks back to the 13/20 SMAs to wait on the German report results.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 07.23.12

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 232012

7/23/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2100 HI time / 0300 EDT)
Forecast: 45.6
Actual: 43.6
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 45.2
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2118 (2058)
1st Peak @ 1.2110 – 2059 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.2141 – 2121 (23 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2058. The reading came in 2 points under the forecast to disappoint. This caused a small 8 tick short spike over 1 bar that did not cross any SMA or Pivot, but extended the LOD 2 ticks. This caused a surprisingly quick reversal after 7 sec of hovering near the LOD. With a fairly disappointing report, we would expect a larger sustainable drop. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2114 with 1 tick of slippage. Since the 50 SMA and PP Pivot above should serve as resistance, I would move the stop loss to 1 tick above the 50 SMA at 1.2122, then wait for a secondary drop. When that did not happen it would be an 8 tick loss, but this report reaction is an anomaly. After hitting the LOD, it reversed strongly for 31 ticks in about 20 min. Then it came back down to the 200 SMA to wait on the German report results.

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 06.20.12

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 202012

6/20/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2100 HI time / 0300 EDT)
Forecast: 44.6
Actual: 45.3
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 44.7
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2681 (2058)
1st Peak @ 1.2695 – 2105 (7 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.2682 – 2119 (21 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2058. The reading came in 0.7 points above the forecast to mildly impress. This caused a 14 tick spike over 7 bars that crossed all 3 major SMAs, but having recently dropped below them, they had not been established as resistance yet. It eclipsed the PP Pivot by 3 ticks to hit its peak. With JOBB you would have filled at about 1.2684 with no slippage. Look to exit at the PP Pivot with 8 ticks – right on the 12 tick average for this report. After the peak, it eventually reversed back to 1 tick above the origin in 21 min for 13 ticks. Then it popped up to the PP Pivot and came back down before the German report broke.

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