2/23/2016 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 107.0
Actual: 105.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9510.5
1st Peak @ 9516.5 – 0400:08 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 9506.5 – 0400:36 (1 min)
20 ticks

Continued Reversal to 9493.5 – 0405 (5 min)
46 ticks

2nd Peak @ 9526.0 – 0409 (9 min)
31 ticks

Expected Fill: 9513.5
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9515.5 (4 ticks)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9521.00 area (just above the 200 SMA) – move lower

Notes: Report caused a small initial move that lasted about 12 sec before reversing. If left alone, the stop would have been taken after 14 sec. After seeing the hovering and reluctance to launch, move the stop up to Breakeven or just below and look to exit. It reversed to the OOD before pulling back to eclipse the 200 SMA.

3/25/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 110.9
Actual: 110.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3828
1st Peak @ 1.3814 – 0500:13 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.3835 – 0500:33 (1 min)
21 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3845 – 0512 (12 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3803 – 0551 (51 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.3816 – 0633 (93 min)
13 ticks

Notes: The reading came in only 0.2 points below the forecast to nearly match and continues to remain at top of the range of readings in multiple years. This caused a small and shortly lived spike of 14 ticks that reversed after 13 sec into the bar after crossing the PP Pivot and extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.3822 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture up to 7 ticks with a profit target. If you did not have a profit target, look for a quick exit after hearing the near matching results for 2-5 ticks. It reversed for 21 ticks in the next 20 sec up to 50/100 SMAs, then continued for another 10 ticks in the next 11 min up to the HOD. Then it fell for a surprising 2nd peak of 11 ticks more than the original spike, losing steam just above the S1 Mid Pivot in about 40 min. After that it reversed for 13 ticks in the next 42 min, crossing the 50 SMA and nearly reaching the 100 SMA.

5/23/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 111.0
Actual: 110.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3644
1st Peak @ 1.3629 – 0400:48 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.3639 – 0404 (4 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.3615 – 0437 (37 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.3626 – 0452 (52 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.6 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint but still remain at top of the range of readings in multiple years. This caused a slow developing short spike of 15 ticks started on the 13 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD to peak late in the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.3640 with no slippage, then seen it initially struggle with the LOD and S1 Pivot before it made a secondary push lower for another 10 ticks after 30 sec. Look to exit at about 1.3630 where it hovered for 7 sec for 10 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 10 ticks back to the S1 Pivot in 3 min. Then it stepped lower to a final peak of 14 more ticks that reached the S3 Mid Pivot in the next 33 min. After that it reversed for 11 ticks to the 50 SMA in 15 min.

7/25/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 109.6
Actual: 108.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3467
1st Peak @ 1.3454 – 0400:44 (1 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3443 – 0408 (8 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.3454 – 0412 (12 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.6 points below the forecast to strongly disappoint. This caused a short spike of 13 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and fell to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot, and extend the LOD on the :01 and :02 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.3462 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall to 1.3459 and initially struggle with the S1 Pivot before it made a secondary push lower for another 3 ticks after 20 sec. Look to exit in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots for the conservative play, or wait for a 2nd peak with the strong bearish results. The 2nd peak achieved another 11 ticks in 7 more min as it tried to reach the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 11 ticks back to the S2 Mid Pivot in 4 min.

9/24/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 105.9
Actual: 104.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.2867
1st Peak @ 1.2854 – 0400:51 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2863 – 0403 (3 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 1.2855 – 0410 (10 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.2866 – 0434 (34 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.2 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint traders. This caused a short spike of 13 ticks that started just above the 50 SMA and fell to cross the 100/200 SMAs, the S1 Pivot and OOD on the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.2863 with no slippage, then seen it fall to hover near the OOD allowing 7-8 ticks to be captured. It reversed quickly in the next 2 bars for 9 ticks back to the 13 SMA. Then it pulled back 8 ticks to the OOD 7 min later before a reversal of 11 ticks back to the origin in 24 min. After that it fell but the length of time after the report and slow drop indicate other market factors were likely the cause.