6E 12-14 (1 Min) 10.27.2014

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Nov 122014
 

6E 12-14 (1 Min)  10_27_2014

10/27/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 104.6
Actual: 103.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.2699
1st Peak @ 1.2689 – 0500:13 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.2711 – 0503 (3 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2687 – 0533 (33 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.2694 – 0554 (54 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.2 points below the forecast to mildly disappoint traders. This caused a bizarre overall reaction that had a :59 bar climb, :00 bar fall, then the report caused a 10 tick short move that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.2694 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall to hover around 1.2692 midway through the :31 bar. Look to exit there for about 2 ticks since it crossed heavy support. After the peak, it reversed strongly for 22 ticks in 2 min to the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of only 2 more ticks after 30 min. It continued to slowly trend lower in the aftermath, but as it was a steady and slow paced down trend, it is not likely due to the IFO report.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 11.24.2014

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Dec 282014
 

6E 12-14 (1 Min)  11_24_2014

11/24/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 103.0
Actual: 104.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2384
1st Peak @ 1.2404 – 0400:09 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.2381 – 0405 (5 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2411 – 0415 (15 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.2393 – 0428 (28 min)
18 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2416 – 0442 (42 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.2394 – 0510 (70 min)
22 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.7 points above the forecast to mildly impress traders. This caused a 20 tick spike in 9 sec that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and rose to cross all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. Due to the strong resistance barriers in tight proximity, it retreated after a short stay. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.2390 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover around 1.2400 for 4 sec near the PP Pivot. With the situation (100/200 SMAs and PP Pivot sitting 4 ticks apart), look to exit there with about 10 ticks as a reversal is highly likely. It fell 23 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Mid Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after 10 min as it eclipsed the HOD. Then it fell 18 ticks in 13 min to the 100 SMA. After that it climbed for a final peak of 5 more ticks in 14 min to eclipse the R1 Mid Pivot before falling 22 ticks in 28 min to the 100 SMA.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 1.26.2015

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Feb 152015
 

6E 03-15 (1 Min)  1_26_2015

1/26/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 106.7
Actual: 106.7
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.1242
1st Peak @ 1.1236 – 0400:08 (1 min)
-6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1246 – 0400:13 (1 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 1.1229 – 0402 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.1268 – 0412 (12 min)
39 ticks

Notes: The reading came in exactly matching the forecast to cause indecision. This resulted in a 6 tick short spike in 8 sec that started above the PP Pivot and fell to cross it then snapped back to reverse 10 ticks before pulling back 17 ticks in 1 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.1237 with 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped out for an 8 tick loss 5 sec later. After that it fell and chopped between the PP Pivot / 50 SMA and 100 SMA before reversing 39 ticks 10 min later to extend the HOD.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 2.23.2015

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Mar 182015
 

6E 03-15 (1 Min)  2_23_2015

2/23/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 107.4
Actual: 106.8
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1346
1st Peak @ 1.1326 – 0400:58 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.1338 – 0407 (7 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1317 – 0408 (8 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.1335 – 0414 (14 min)
18 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.6 pts below the forecast to disappoint the market. This resulted in a 20 tick short spike that trickled down over the entire :01 bar as it started on the 50 SMA and fell to extend the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.1341 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall for a nice profit with no support barrier encountered. Be patient and wait for hovering. This would have allowed 10-14 ticks to be captured. After the peak, it reversed 12 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks 1 min later. Then it reversed 18 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA. After that it traded sideways and slowly drifted lower.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 3.25.2015

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Apr 052015
 

6E 06-15 (1 Min)  3_25_2015

3/25/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 107.4
Actual: 107.9
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 1.0976
1st Bar Span 1.0973 to 1.0979 – 0501 (1 min)
+/-3 ticks

1st peak @ 1.0955 – 0504 (4 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.0973 – 0508 (8 min)
18 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.5 pts above the forecast to mildly impact the market with a dull reaction that only strayed 3 ticks away from the anchor point on either side. Fortunately the 4 tick bracket would have contained the dull movement and allowed a safe cancel of the strategy with no fill. After the :01 bar, it fell 21 ticks in 3 min to eclipse the 100 SMA / PP Pivot. Then it reversed 18 ticks in 4 min to the 50 SMA.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 4.24.2015

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Apr 272015
 

6E 06-15 (1 Min)  4_24_2015

4/24/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.5
Actual: 108.6
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0883
1st Peak @ 1.0891 – 0400:11 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.0880 – 0400:14 (1 min)
-11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0900 – 0402 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.0883 – 0413 (13 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The reading came nearly matching with only 0.1 pt offset. This resulted in an indecisive reaction that spiked long for 8 ticks in 11 sec then reversed 11 ticks 3 sec later. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.0988 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it show 3 ticks of profit for 3 sec before falling to the stop for an 8 tick loss with no slippage. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks on the next bar to reach the R2 Mid Pivot before reversing 17 ticks in 11 min to the 100 SMA.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 5.22.2015

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May 242015
 

6E 06-15 (1 Min)  5_22_2015

5/22/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.3
Actual: 108.5
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1161
1st Peak @ 1.1178 – 0400:25 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.1169 – 0402 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1180 – 0403 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.1153 – 0415 (15 min)
27 ticks

Pullback to 1.1172 – 0433 (33 min)
19 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly matching with 0.2 pts above the forecast to mildly impress the market. This resulted in a 17 tick long spike in 25 sec that started on the 100 /50 SMAs and climbed to extend the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.1165 with no slippage, then seen it rise to hover at the HOD for a few sec then climb another 4 ticks and hover again. This would have allowed 8-12 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 9 ticks in 1 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 1 min. Then it reversed 27 ticks in 12 min to cross the 200 SMA before pulling back 19 ticks in 18 min.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 6.24.2015

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Jul 042015
 

6E 09-15 (1 Min)  6_24_2015

6/24/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.2
Actual: 107.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1234
1st Peak @ 1.1222 – 0400:15 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.1232 – 0400:30 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1220 – 0404 (4 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.1232 – 0413 (13 min)
12 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.8 pts below the forecast to mildly disappoint the market. This resulted in a 12 tick short spike in 15 sec that started just below the HOD and fell to cross the 13/20 SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.1229 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall another 7 ticks then reverse. If you had a profit target or were fast, you could have captured about 5 ticks. Otherwise watch it reverse and fall later to exit with a similar result. It fell for a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks before reversing 12 ticks in 9 min.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 7.27.2015

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Sep 032015
 

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 7_27_2015

7/27/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 107.6
Actual: 108.0
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 107.5
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1095
1st Peak @ 1.1121 – 0400:23 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.1095 – 0409 (9 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 1.1112 – 0414 (14 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.1080 – 0446 (46 min)
32 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.4 pts above the forecast to cause a larger than normal long spike of 26 ticks in 23 sec. After peaking it retreated quickly to hover about 7 ticks lower. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled long at 1.1099 with no slippage, then seen it climb, peak and retreat to hover around 1.1114 to allow about 15 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 26 ticks in 8 min to the 20 SMA / R3 Pivot before pulling back 17 ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed 32 ticks in 32 min to the 100 SMA.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8.25.2015

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Sep 172015
 

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8_25_2015

8/25/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 107.6
Actual: 108.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1532
1st Peak @ 1.1543 – 0400:07 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.1530 – 0400:30 (1 min)
13 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.1516 – 0403 (3 min)
27 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.1567 – 0438 (38 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 1.1545 – 0449 (49 min)
22 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.7 pts above the forecast to cause a long spike of 11 ticks in 7 sec. After peaking it hovered before reversing. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled long at 1.1536 with no slippage, then seen it hover at 1.1540 to allow 4 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 13 ticks in 23 sec then another 14 ticks in 2 min. Then it climbed for a final peak of 24 more ticks in 35 min after crossing the 200 SMA before reversing 22 ticks in 11 min.