EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 11.22.2013

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Nov 242013

11/22/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 107.9
Actual: 109.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3495
1st Peak @ 1.3529 – 0402 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.3512 – 0405 (5 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.4 points above the forecast and the highest reading in multiple years. This caused a large decisive and stable spike of 34 ticks that peaked early on the :02 bar as it reached the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.3502 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture at least 20 ticks with ease or more if you waited into the :02 bar. After the peak, it reversed for 17 ticks in 3 min back to the R1 Pivot. After that it traded sideways for at least an hour, using the R1 Pivot as its floor.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 10.25.2013

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Nov 242013

10/25/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.2
Actual: 107.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3826
1st Peak @ 1.3812 – 0401 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.3824 – 0417 (17 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3809 – 0430 (30 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.3826 – 0436 (36 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.8 points below the forecast to moderately disappoint the market. This caused a medium sized unsustainable short spike of 14 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar. Since it crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot, it could not sustain the drop and left 8 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.3819 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover between 2 and 6 ticks of profit as it hovered around the R1 Mid Pivot for 12 sec. Look to exit with 4-5 ticks when you see the hovering with the strong support barrier. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in 16 min as it crossed all 3 major SMAs. Then it achieved a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks at the bottom of the hour, before reversing 17 ticks back to the R1 Pivot and the origin.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 9.24.2013

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Nov 242013

9/24/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.4
Actual: 107.7
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 107.6
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3515
Fake Spike @ 1.3521 – 0401 (1 min)
6 ticks

1st Peak @ 1.3501 – 0401 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.3509 – 0403 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3496 – 0406 (6 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.3512 – 0428 (28 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.7 points below the forecast to moderately disappoint the market. The news broke 16 sec late and caused a 6 tick fake spike long immediately before falling for the true spike of 14 ticks. The fake spike sought out the HOD then fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.3520 or 21 with 0-1 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall to hit your stop loss for 11 ticks with slippage. This is why the report is a Risk 3. After the peak, it reversed for 8 ticks in 2 min, before falling for 5 additional ticks on the 2nd peak as it hit the OOD. Then it reversed 16 ticks in the next 22 min back to the just below the R1 Mid Pivot.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 8.27.2013

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Nov 242013

8/27/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 107.1
Actual: 107.5
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3378
1st Peak @ 1.3388 – 0401 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.3369 – 0405 (5 min)
19 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3323 – 0419 (19 min)
65 ticks

Notes: The reading came in slightly exceeding the forecast to mildly impress the market. This caused a a surprising reaction as it spiked long for 10 ticks, but then promptly reversed for a large and long developing reversal. The long move crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and ran out of gas as it fell from there. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.3384 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit around 1.3387 for 3 ticks as it could not breakout long beyond the R1 Mid Pivot. After the peak it reversed for 19 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Mid Pivot, then with a minimal break in the action, continued falling for another 46 ticks in the next 14 min as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. After that it rebounded about 10 ticks and slowly trended upward.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 11.21.2013

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 242013

11/21/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 52.3
Actual: 52.5
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 51.7
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.1
Actual: 54.5
Previous Revision: +0.6 to 52.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3411 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3431 – 0329 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.3424 – 0330 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3435 – 0357 (29 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.3418 – 0406 (38 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in nearly matching the forecast with a negligible previous revision and the services reading came in 1.4 points above the forecast with a moderate bullish previous report revision to cause a stable bullish reaction. This resulted in a 20 tick long move that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot on the :29 bar. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3417 with 2 ticks of slippage, then it a target at or just above the S1 Mid Pivot would have been ideal for about 10 ticks profit. This would have easily filled at a few times during the price action. After the peak, it reversed only 7 ticks on the next bar, then slowly climbed to a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks just before the Eurozone report came out bearish. After that it gave back 17 ticks in 9 min, briefly crossing all 3 major SMAs.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 10.24.2013

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 242013

10/24/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 51.6
Actual: 51.5
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 51.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.8
Actual: 52.3
Previous Revision: -0.7 to 53.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3794 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3778 – 0331 (3 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.3790 – 0343 (15 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3766 – 0410 (42 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.3795 – 0431 (63 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in matching the forecast with a negligible previous revision and the services reading came in 1.5 points below the forecast with a moderate bearish previous report revision to cause a stable bearish reaction. This resulted in a 16 tick short move that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and hit the OOD on the :31 bar. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3787 with 2 ticks of slippage, then it would have retreated to 5 ticks in the red and slowly come back down to give profit, then continue to fall on the next 2 bars. Given the solidly bearish results, this is a situation safe to wait for the delayed reaction. After the peak, it reversed 12 ticks in 12 min, back to the 20 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks in about 30 min after the Eurozone report came out bearish. After that it gave back 29 ticks in 20 min to the 100 SMA, and traded sideways.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 9.23.2013

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 242013

9/23/2013 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 52.3
Actual: 51.3
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 51.8
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.2
Actual: 54.4
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 52.8
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3542 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3534 – 0329 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.3546 – 0329 (1 min)
-12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3511 – 0359 (31 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1.3521 – 0407 (39 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 1 point below the forecast with a negligible previous revision to moderately impress and the services reading came in 1.2 points above the forecast with a moderate bullish previous report revision to cause an indecisive reaction. This resulted in a 8 tick short move that hit the R1 Mid Pivot and immediately reversed long to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. Due to the French report 30 min earlier having conflicting results, this report would have been designated riskier. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3536 with 2 ticks of slippage, then the 5 tick stop would have filled with no slippage immediately. After the :29 bar settled in the middle of the bar, it methodically fell for the next 30 min for another 22 ticks as it hit its low on the entire Eurozone results that were released at 0358. Then it retreated 10 ticks in 8 min. After that it traded sideways.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 11.21.2013

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 242013

11/21/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 47.8
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 49.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 51.3
Actual: 48.8
Previous Revision: +0.7 to 50.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3429 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3403 – 0259 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.3410 – 0300 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3400 – 0304 (6 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.3413 – 0324 (26 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 1.8 points below the forecast to disappoint with a small downward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 2.5 points below the forecast with a moderate upward revision. All of this served to cause a healthy and slightly volatile short spike of 26 ticks on the :59 bar that crossed the 200 SMA, S1 Mid Pivot, and LOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3418 with an abnormally high 8 ticks of slippage then seen hover between 9 and 14 ticks of profit for the rest of the bar. Look to exit with about 10-12 ticks. After the initial move, it retreated 7 ticks before falling for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed slowly for 13 ticks in the next 20 min before heading into the German report.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 10.24.2013

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 242013

10/24/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 50.3
Actual: 49.4
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 49.8
Services PMI
Forecast: 51.2
Actual: 50.2
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 51.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3817 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3807 – 0259 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.3812 – 0301 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3792 – 0328 (30 min)
25 ticks

No Reversal due to German report

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 0.9 points below the forecast to moderately disappoint with a small upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous services reading came in 1 point below the forecast with a small upward revision. All of this served to cause a bearish situation with a 10 tick short move on the :59 bar that started on the 50 SMA and fell to cross the R2 Mid Pivot and hit the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3810 with 4 ticks of slippage then seen it hover around the R2 Mid Pivot. Look To exit near break even with the 100 SMA holding and the R2 Mid Pivot also acting as strong support. After the :59 bar, it drifted sideways on the 100 SMA for about 15 min before falling on a slow developing 2nd peak of 15 more ticks as it crossed the R1 Pivot and 200 SMA with ease. There was no reversal as the 2nd peak transitioned into the bearish results of the German report.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 9.23.2013

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 242013

9/23/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 49.5
Previous Revision: n/a
Services PMI
Forecast: 49.3
Actual: 50.7
Previous Revision: +1.2 to 48.9
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3537 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3545 – 0259 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.3535 – 0304 (6 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3546 – 0311 (13 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.3537 – 0321 (23 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 0.7 points below the forecast to moderately disappoint with no revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.4 points above the forecast with a large bullish revision. All of this served to offset and caused a muted and shortly sustained long spike of only 8 ticks, crossing the 50/100 SMAs and the R1 Pivot, then coming back down to surrender the entire gain. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3543 with 3 ticks of slippage then seen it fall back to hit your stop loss after 3 sec for a 5 tick loss. With the conflicting news, this is a normal, if a tame result. After the :59 bar closed at the origin, it climbed for a 1 tick additional 2nd peak, then reversed for 9 ticks. The HOD and 200 SMA kept it fenced in as they were never approached as it straddled the OOD. Then it moved slightly higher as it headed into the German report.

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