EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 11.20.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 242014

11/20/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 48.9
Actual: 47.6
Previous Revision: +1.2 to 48.5
Services PMI
Forecast: 48.6
Actual: 48.8
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 48.3
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.2540
1st Peak @ 1.2535 – 0300:00 (1 min)
-5 ticks

Reversal to 1.2542 – 0300:01 (1 min)
7 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.2560 – 0303 (3 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 1.2550 – 0308 (8 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.2577 – 0318 (18 min)
27 ticks

Pullback to 1.2565 – 0327 (27 min)
12 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.3 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with a strong upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in nearly matching the forecast with a small upward revision. This caused a small whipsaw of 7 ticks span in the first second as the revision and result of the manufacturing data conflicted. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2536 with 1 tick of slippage then stopped out at 1.2541 for a 5 tick loss. After the initial volatility, it traded sideways in a dull manner for the rest of the bar then reversed strongly for 25 ticks in 2 min to the PP Pivot. After a 10 tick pullback to the OOD in 5 min, it reversed 27 ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot in 10 min. Then it pulled back 12 ticks in 9 min to the 20 SMA as it headed into the release of the German report at the bottom of the hour.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 11.20.2014

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 242014

11/20/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 51.5
Actual: 50.0
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 51.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 54.5
Actual: 52.1
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 54.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2567
1st Peak @ 1.2541 – 0330:10 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.2558 – 0333 (3 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2506 – 0348 (18 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 1.2526 – 0359 (29 min)
20 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.5 points below the forecast with a mild downward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 2.4 points below the forecast with a mild downward previous report revision. With all of the news bearish, we saw a decisive large short spike for 26 ticks that crossed the OOD, 100 / 200 SMAs. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2557 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover below the 200 SMA for 8 sec. This would have been an ideal place to exit with about 12-15 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 17 ticks in the next 2 min to the PP Pivot before falling for a final peak of 35 more ticks in 15 min as it crossed the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 20 ticks in the next 11 min to the old LOD position. With the German and French reports inconsistent, do not look to trade the Eurozone report at 0400.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 11.24.2014

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Dec 282014

11/24/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 103.0
Actual: 104.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2384
1st Peak @ 1.2404 – 0400:09 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.2381 – 0405 (5 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2411 – 0415 (15 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.2393 – 0428 (28 min)
18 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2416 – 0442 (42 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.2394 – 0510 (70 min)
22 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.7 points above the forecast to mildly impress traders. This caused a 20 tick spike in 9 sec that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and rose to cross all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. Due to the strong resistance barriers in tight proximity, it retreated after a short stay. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.2390 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover around 1.2400 for 4 sec near the PP Pivot. With the situation (100/200 SMAs and PP Pivot sitting 4 ticks apart), look to exit there with about 10 ticks as a reversal is highly likely. It fell 23 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Mid Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after 10 min as it eclipsed the HOD. Then it fell 18 ticks in 13 min to the 100 SMA. After that it climbed for a final peak of 5 more ticks in 14 min to eclipse the R1 Mid Pivot before falling 22 ticks in 28 min to the 100 SMA.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 12.4.2014

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

Dec 282014

12/4/2014 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.05%
Actual: 0.05%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 1.2316
————
Trap Trade:
))):46t Bar Span: 1.2312 – 1.2319
)))7 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.2296 (on the LOD) / 1.2284 (just above the S2 Mid pivot)
Short entries – 1.2336 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 1.2348 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The ECB decided to leave rates pat and wait to see the longer term effects of the stimulus. This caused minimal movement with only 7 ticks span on the :46 bar making it an easy decision to cancel the order with no fill. It continued to chop in the next 5 min, but the movement is unpredictable, so trading is discouraged.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 6.30.2014

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Jan 112015

6/30/2014 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 1.3659
1st Peak @ 1.3663 – 0500:00 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 1.3656 – 0502 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3666 – 0517 (17 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.3653 – 0549 (49 min)
13 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused a dull spike of 4 ticks immediately to the R2 Mid Pivot that reversed quickly. With JOBB and a 5 ticks bracket, your order would not have filled and kept you safe from a losing trade. Cancel the order after the minimal move with no fill. After the spike it reversed 7 total ticks in the next min to the 100 SMA. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 15 min, eclipsing the R2 Mid Pivot and extending the HOD. After that it reversed 13 ticks in 32 min to the 200 SMA.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 7.31.2014

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Jan 112015

7/31/2014 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision:n/a
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 1.3393
1st Peak @ 1.3390 – 0500:02 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 1.3397 – 0500:08 (1 min)
7 ticks (4 from origin)

Pullback to 1.3391 – 0502 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.3402 – 0515 (15 min)
13 ticks

Notes: The broader reading fell short of the forecast while the core reading matched the forecast. This caused a dull and indecisive spike of 3 ticks short to the PP Pivot that reversed quickly to cross all 3 major SMAs and the OOD. With JOBB and a 5 ticks bracket, your order would not have filled and kept you safe from a losing trade. Cancel the order after the minimal move with no fill. After the reversal, it pulled back 6 ticks in 1 min to nearly reach the PP Pivot before reversing 13 ticks in 15 min to cross the R1 Mid Pivot.

6E 09-14 (1 Min) 8.29.2014

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Jan 112015

8/29/2014 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision:n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3179
1st Peak @ 1.3195 – 0500:38 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.3187 – 0502 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3197 – 0503 (3 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.3180 – 0514 (14 min)
17 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.3177 – 0533 (33 min)
20 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused a long spike of 10 ticks immediately followed by a slower climb for 6 more ticks after 38 sec. This would have filled your long entry at 1.8185 with 1 tick of slippage then allowed up to 9 ticks to be captured as it peaked on the R1 Pivot. It reversed 8 ticks in 1 min to the R1 Mid Pivot followed by a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 1 min. Then it reversed 17 ticks in 11 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA and another 3 ticks in 19 min to the PP Pivot and 100 SMA.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 9.30.2014

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Jan 112015

9/30/2014 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 1.2667
1st Peak @ 1.2633 – 0500:42 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.2645 – 0502 (2 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2597 – 0540 (40 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 1.2615 – 0547 (47 min)
18 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading fell short of the forecast by 0.2%. This caused a short spike of 5 ticks immediately followed by a slower descent for 29 more ticks after 42 sec. This would have filled your short entry at 1.2661 with 1 tick of slippage then allowed up to 25 or so ticks to be captured as it peaked just above the R3 Pivot. After that it reversed 12 ticks in 1 min, then settled into a downward fan to trickle lower over 38 min for a final peak of 36 more ticks after crossing the S4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed to nearly reach the 50 SMA for 18 ticks in 7 min.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 10.31.2014

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Jan 112015

10/31/2014 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2576
1st Peak @ 1.2556 – 0510 (10 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.2564 – 0515 (15 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2552 – 0521 (21 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.2567 – 0541 (41 min)
15 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading fell short of the forecast by 0.1% with a 0.1% upward revision on the previous report. This caused a dull initial reaction that only strayed 2 ticks away from the origin. This would have been an easy decision to cancel the order. Then we saw it fall 20 ticks in the next 9 min after crossing the S1 Pivot. This is bizarre due to the delayed reaction and no forex factory indication of a late release. It reversed 8 ticks in 5 min to the S1 Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 15 ticks in 20 min to the 100 SMA and traded sideways before another news report at 0600 caused a long spike.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 11.28.2014

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Jan 112015

11/28/2014 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2438
1st Peak @ 1.2450 – 0500:00 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.2444 – 0502 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2457 – 0503 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.2444 – 0515 (15 min)
13 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2464 – 0530 (30 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.2449 – 0600 (60 min)
15 ticks

Notes: The broader reading matched the forecast while the core reading also matched the forecast. This caused an immediate long spike of 12 ticks that crossed the 50/100 SMAs near the origin and the 200 SMA near the top. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 1.2446 with 3 ticks of slippage. After the fill it would have chopped between 1.2444 and 1.2450. With the matching news and the 200 SMA acting as resistance, look to exit at 1.2448 with 2 ticks when it hovered late in the bar. After the reversal at the beginning of the :02 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 2 min to the S2 Mid Pivot, then reversed 13 ticks in 12 min back to the 200 SMA. After that it climbed for a final peak of 26 ticks in 15 min to the S1 Pivot and nearly the OOD before reversing 15 ticks in 30 min to the S2 Pivot and 100 SMA.

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