Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 04-14 (1 Min) 2.27.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

2/27/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -110B
Actual: -95B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 4.484 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.441 – 1031 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 4.497 – 1031 (1 min)
56 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.563 – 1038 (8 min)
122 ticks

Notes: Smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a moderate short move while the action of the :30 bar would have been easily contained within the bracket. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 4.460 with 14 ticks slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it hit the LOD and promptly retreat to the fill point and hover for 5 sec before retreating further long. When it hovers in that manner with a big pullback, the best course of action is to exit quickly near breakeven. The :31 bar reversed all the way up to the 200 SMA then the extended reversal climbed all the way up to 4.563 for 122 ticks in 8 min. After that it chopped between the 13 SMA and PP Pivot before falling to the area of support seen before the news broke.

NG 04-14 (1 Min) 3.6.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

3/6/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -134B
Actual: -152B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.538 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.665 – 1033 (3 min)
127 ticks

Reversal to 4.620 – 1041 (11 min)
45 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.695 – 1056 (26 min)
157 ticks

Reversal to 4.629 – 1115 (45 min)
66 ticks

Notes: Larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large long move with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin, the HOD, and the R1 Mid Pivot to peak on the :33 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.575 with 27 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it continue to ratchet upward and hover around the R1 Mid Pivot at 4.641 allowing for an easy exit with 60+ ticks. With the larger offset, this is also a safer report to be patient for a higher exit. After reaching 4.665 on the :33 bar, it reversed for 45 ticks in 10 min back to the 13 SMA. After 7 min of chopping above the 13 SMA, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 30 more ticks to the R1 Pivot in the next 10 min. Then it reversed for 66 ticks in the next 20 min to the 50 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. After that it oscillated sideways near the R1 Mid Pivot.

NG 04-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/13/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -199B
Actual: -195B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 4.420 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.370 – 1031 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 4.416 – 1031 (1 min)
46 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.443 – 1052 (22 min)
73 ticks

Notes: Slightly smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a moderate unsustainable short spike with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the S2 Mid Pivot, then retreated strongly after 7 sec to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 4.392 with 18 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it retreat to stop you out after 8 sec unless you closed out manually before that. After that it chopped around the S1 Pivot before reversing for another 27 ticks in about 20 min. Then it oscillated around the 200 SMA for the short term.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 11.1.2013

GBP Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 252014

11/1/2013 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0530 EDT)
Forecast: 56.3
Actual: 56.0
Previous revision: -0.4 to 56.3
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.5995 (0528)
1st Peak @ 1.6002 – 0529 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.5990 – 0529 (1 min)
-12 ticks

Pullback to 1.5999 – 0529 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.5985 – 0532 (3 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly weaker than the forecast with 0.3 pts offset. This caused an initial long move in the wrong direction of 7 ticks followed by a reversal of 12 ticks short, and closing out the :31 bar with a pullback of 9 ticks to allow for an exit just a couple ticks below break even. In this case the 15 tick stop would have absorbed the heat and allowed for an exit between -2 and -5 ticks above the 50/100 SMAs. With the small offset, the moves were small and lacked conviction, but resulted in a 17 tick reversal on the :33 bar to reach the S2 Mid Pivot.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 12.2.2013

GBP Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 252014

12/2/2013 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 56.5
Actual: 58.4
Previous revision: +0.5 to 56.5
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.6379 (0428)
1st Peak @ 1.6425 – 0429 (1 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 1.6408 – 0432 (4 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 1.6422 – 0436 (8 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.6400 – 0446 (18 min)
22 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.6386 – 0540 (72 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 1.9 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 46 ticks that started at the bottom of recent downtrend , then broke out to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot. An exit within the first 5 sec would have secured an exit no worse than 1.6418, just below the R2 Pivot. After the peak, it reversed back to the 200 SMA on the :32 bar for 17 ticks. Then it climbed 14 ticks in the next 4 bars in a failed attempt at a 2nd peal to nearly reach the R2 Pivot. Then we saw a dramatic reversal on the :37 bar that eventually achieved 22 ticks after the :46 bar nearly reached the 50 SMA. After that, it chopped sideways near the R2 Mid Pivot before falling for an extended reversal of 26 more ticks.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 2.3.2014

GBP Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 252014

2/3/2014 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 57.1
Actual: 56.7
Previous revision: -0.1 to 57.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6403 (0428)
1st Peak @ 1.6366 – 0429 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 1.6376 – 0431 (3 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.6339 – 0501 (33 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 1.6353 – 0510 (42 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.0 pt offset. This caused a short spike of 37 ticks that started on the 200 SMA, then broke out to cross the 100/50 SMAs, the S2 Pivot, and the LOD. In this case an exit at 5 sec would have seen an exit near 1.6388, but if you waited until 8 sec, it could have been around 1.6370. This reaction differed from the others as it developed more slowly and peaked later in the bar. It also achieved a 2nd peak, begging the question if other news was contributing. After the peak, it reversed back to the former LOD position for 10 ticks on the :31 bar. Then it fell slowly and deliberately, using the 13 SMA as resistance for a 2nd peak of 27 more ticks in the next 30 min. Then it reversed for 14 ticks in the next 9 min, crossing the 13/20 SMAs.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 3.3.2014

GBP Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/3/2014 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 56.9
Actual: 56.9
Previous revision: -0.1 to 56.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6708 (0428)
1st Peak @ 1.6718 – 0429 (1 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.6750 – 0437 (9 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.6727 – 0515 (47 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast but still caused a long reaction. This caused a long spike of 10 ticks that started on the 20 SMA, then broke out to cross the 100/50 SMAs, and the S1 Pivot. In this case an exit at 5 sec would have seen an exit near 1.6717 which would have been wise with the matching results, but it surprisingly continued upward to achieve 42 ticks in the next 8 min. This reaction differed from the others as it was strongly bullish on matching news with a 2nd peak to hit the HOD. Then it fell for 23 ticks to the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot in the next 38 min.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 3.3.2014

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/3/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE
Anchor point @ 0.8937
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.8923 – 2230:04 (1 min)
-13 ticks

Reversal to 0.8948 – 2230:05 (1 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 0.8924 – 2230:06 (1 min)
-24 ticks

Reversal to 0.8964 – 2230:32 (1 min)
40 ticks

Pullback to 0.8930 – 2231:06 (2 min)
-34 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.8903 – 2234 (4 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.8921 – 2256 (26 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8924 (just below the OOD) / 0.8914 (on the LOD)
Short entries – 0.8949 (in between the R2 Mid Pivot and the HOD) / 0.8958 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused an indecisive reaction overall, with initial swings between the OOD on the short side and the R2 Pivot on the long side. The initial burst short for 13 ticks would have filled the inner long entry with 1 tick to spare, then reversed quickly to within 1 tick of our inner short entry. After a pullback, the next reversal would have filled the inner short entry and the outer short entry if left on the chart. Then it would have fallen again to allow for more profit to be captured. It eventually fell for a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks down to the S1 Pivot, then reversed for 18 ticks in the next 22 min to the PP Pivot.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 3.4.2014

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/4/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.8954
Premature Spike @ 0.8939 – 1931 (1 Min)
15 ticks

1st Peak@ 0.9009 – 1931 (1 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 0.8961 – 2024 (54 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1% with no previous revision. This caused a head fake short for 15 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the LOD, followed by the true long move of 70 ticks that crossed the R4 Pivot and backed off. There was a trigger to cancel the order about 30 sec before the report with a 9 tick spike up followed by a retracement in 10 sec. If you did not cancel, With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.8946 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it reverse and stop you out immediately with about 8 ticks of slippage at 0.8964. The “Reverse if Stopped” feature would be appropriate for this trade allowing another 20 or so ticks to be captured to offset the loss. The large spike was unsustainable as it crossed the R4 Pivot and retreated to hover between the R3 and R4 Mid Pivots. Then it trickled down about 18 more ticks in the next 54 min to the 100 SMA as volume dried up. The large red candle at 2045 is a spontaneous news event.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/5/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.8
Actual: 51.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (Early release-no fill)
Started @ 0.009754 (0957)
1st Peak @ 0.009765 – 0958 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009759 – 1001 (4 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009769 – 1004 (7 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.009759 – 1007 (10 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report fell short of the forecast by 2.2 points. The report was leaked by one news source 3 min early, as it moved on the :58 bar. This caused a tame long spike of 11 ticks on 2 bars as it started just below the 50 SMA, then climbed to cross the 200 SMA and hit the S1 Pivot. Cancel JOBB when you see the news has released early as announced on Talking Forex. After the 1st peak, it fell to test the 200 SMA for 6 ticks, then rebounded for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks above the S1 Pivot. Then it fell 10 ticks to hit the 200 SMA again. After that, it traded sideways for about 15 min before settling into another rally, unlikely due to the ISM report.

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