Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

GBP Services PMI Comments Off

Apr 022014

3/5/2014 GBP Services PMI (0428 EST)
Forecast: 58.0
Actual: 58.2
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 1.6671 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6680 – 0427:54 (0 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6663 – 0428:02 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6678 – 0428:15 (1 min)
)))15 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.6692 – 0432 (4 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.6669 – 0449 (21 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6653 (just below the LOD) / 1.6635 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6693 (on the HOD) / 1.6706 (No SMA/ Pivot nearby)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with a narrow offset of +0.2 causing a premature long impulse for 9 ticks as it eclipsed the 50 SMA. Then it reversed 8 sec later 17 ticks to cross the 200 SMA and nearly reach the S1 Mid Pivot. All of this movement would have been well inside the 20 tick inner tiers, so cancel the order. After 15 sec it pulled back to the 100 SMA, then eventually achieved a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks on the :02 bar as it nearly reached the HOD. Then it fell 23 ticks in the next 21 min to cross the 200 SMA. After that, it continued to cycle between the R1 Mid Pivot and S1 Mid Pivot 2 more times as it gradually trended lower.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10.7.2013

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Apr 062014

10/7/2013 NAB Business Confidence (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 12
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9395
1st Peak @ 0.9406 – 2032 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.9371 – 2136 (66 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report came in at the highest level in recent months to cause a long spike of 11 ticks that started on the 13 SMA and was slow and tame to advance. It crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD, peaking 6 sec into the :32 bar. After the peak, it reversed slowly and methodically for 35 ticks in the next 64 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs, the S1 Mid Pivot, and extending the LOD. This could have also been correcting the bullish advance in the hour leading up to the trade.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 11.11.2013

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Apr 062014

11/11/2013 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 5
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9347
1st Peak @ 0.9320 – 1934 (4 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9315 – 1949 (19 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.9331 – 2001 (31 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9304 – 2131 (121 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.9312 – 2146 (136 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report came in much less than the previous month to cause a short move of 27 ticks over the :31 – :34 bars that started on the HOD and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and eclipse the S1 Pivot while extending the LOD. Once again the move was slow and tame resulting in a fill with low slippage. The S1 Mid Pivot would have been a safe and conservative exit for about 10-12 ticks. After the peak, it struggled with the S1 Pivot for about 15 min, then reversed for 16 ticks back to the 50 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot. Then it proceeded to take slow and progressive steps lower in a downward fan that used the 50 SMA as resistance and eventually crossed the S2 Mid Pivot about 2 hrs after the report. Then it reversed for 8 ticks in 15 min.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 12.9.2013

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Apr 062014

12/9/2013 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 5
Previous Revision: +1 to 6
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9081
1st Peak @ 0.9091 – 1933 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.9080 – 1954 (24 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report came in at the same as last month with a small upward previous revision. This caused a nearly dull reaction that yielded 10 ticks in 3 bars as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot, 50/100 SMAs, and nearly reached the HOD. The push on the :33 bar was too much to sustain, so it ceded the gain late on the bar, then eked out another few ticks in the next 20 min. Minimal action overall as the report was probably matching expectations and it is heading into the Holidays.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 1.27.2014

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Apr 062014

1/27/2014 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 6
Previous Revision: +1 to 6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8711
1st Peak @ 0.8735 – 1932 (2 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.8727 – 1933 (3 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8741 – 1947 (17 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.8725 – 2017 (47 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report came in 1 pt higher than last month with a small upward previous revision. This caused a 24 tick long spike that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and 13/20 SMAs and crossed the 200 SMA and the R1 Pivot while extending the HOD. Once again the move was slow and tame resulting in a fill with low slippage and peaking in the middle of the :32 bar . The R1 Pivot would have been a safe exit for about 18-20 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 8 ticks, then achieved a Final peak of 6 more ticks as it eclipsed the R2 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed for 16 ticks in the next 30 min back to the R1 Mid Pivot, then it traded sideways.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.10.2013

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Apr 062014

2/10/2014 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 8
Previous Revision:n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8932
1st Peak @ 0.8955 – 1933 (3 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.8940 – 1938 (8 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8996 – 2006 (36 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 0.8981 – 2011 (41 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report came in 2 pts higher than last month with no previous revision. This caused a 23 tick long spike that started on the 20 SMA / R1 Pivot and crossed the R3 Mid Pivot while extending the HOD over 3 bars. Once again the move was slow and tame resulting in a fill with low slippage and peaking just after the :33 bar started. The R3 Mid Pivot would have been a safe exit for about 13-15 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 15 ticks back to the R2 Pivot and 13 SMA in 5 min. Then it rebounded to climb for a large 2nd peak of 41 more ticks in the next 28 min, riding the 13 SMA while experiencing a few min of resistance at each Pivot. It would be a safe proposition to buy the reversal after the initial peak, and hold onto it until the 13 crosses the 20 SMA and the MACD crosses. This would have secured over 40 ticks above the R4 Pivot.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 3.10.2014

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Apr 062014

3/10/2014 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 7
Previous Revision: +1 to 9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9035
1st Peak @ 0.9012 – 2032 (2 min)
23 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9006 – 2053 (23 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.9026 – 2119 (49 min)
20 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9035 – 2224 (114 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in 1 pt lower than last month with an upward previous revision. This caused a 23 tick short spike that started on the HOD and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs, the PP Pivot, and OOD. The spike was still tame but moved faster than the last few reactions resulting in a fill with low slippage and peaking about halfway through the :32 bar. With the :31 bar hitting the LOD and the PP Pivot / 200 SMA a little above, look to exit just a tick or 2 lower than the LOD on the :32 bar. After the peak, it reversed for only 7 ticks, before continuing to fall for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot 20 min later. Due to the upward revision, we did not get a large lasting 2nd peak, but a small one and a larger reversal that recovered 20 ticks in 26 min, and another 9 ticks back to the origin in the next hour.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 10.10.2013

Official Bank Rate Comments Off

Apr 092014

10/10/2013 Official Bank Rate / Asset Purchase Facility (0700 EST)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.5941 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 1.5919 – 0700:00 (1 min)
-22 ticks

Reversal to 1.5943 – 0700:03 (1 min)
24 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5923 (between the S1 Mid and S1 Pivots) / 1.5912 (between the LOD and S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5959 (just above the HOD) / 1.5971 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: The Bank of England left rates unchanged as expected, and the Asset Purchase Facility also remained unchanged. This caused a short move of 22 ticks at the open of the :01 bar that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot, followed by an immediate reversal back to the origin. The initial burst short would have filled your inner tier long entry with about 4 ticks excess/heat, then immediately reversed back to the origin in the next 3 sec. It hovered at 1.5941 from 15 to 38 sec to allow for an easy exit with 18 ticks. Then it traded sideways near the PP Pivot after the brief disturbance.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 11.7.2013

Official Bank Rate Comments Off

Apr 092014

6B 12-13 (1 Range) 11_7_2013

11/7/2013 Official Bank Rate / Asset Purchase Facility (0700 EST)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.6077 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 1.6049 – 0700:16 (1 min)
-28 ticks

Reversal to 1.6070 – 0700:38 (1 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 1.6058 – 0700:43 (1 min)
-12 ticks

Reversal to 1.6073 – 0701:44 (2 min)
15 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6060 (in between the LOD and the S1 Pivot) / 1.6050 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6093 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 1.6103 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: The Bank of England left rates unchanged as expected, and the Asset Purchase Facility also remained unchanged. This caused a short move of 28 ticks that stepped lower until 16 sec into the :01 bar until it hit the S2 Mid Pivot, followed by a reversal back to the S1 Mid Pivot at 38 sec. Then it pulled back 12 ticks to the S1 Pivot before reversing again to the S1 Pivot and nearly the 200 SMA on the :02 bar. The initial short burst would have filled both tiers of the long orders, for an average entry of 1.6055, with 1 tick excess/heat on the outer tier. Then it kept climbing to the S1 Mid Pivot and bounced 3 times. Moving the profit target down to 1.6071 would have been prudent for 32 total ticks. After the :02, it tightened up and trended lower.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 12.5.2013

Official Bank Rate Comments Off

Apr 092014

6B 12-13 (1 Range) 12_5_2013

12/5/2013 Official Bank Rate / Asset Purchase Facility (0700 EST)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.6338 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 1.6356 – 0700:04 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.6340 – 0700:46 (1 min)
-16 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.6357 – 0719 (19 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.6330 – 0745 (45 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6321 (no support barrier nearby) / 1.6312 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6355 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.6365 (just above the 200 SMA)

Notes: The Bank of England left rates unchanged as expected, and the Asset Purchase Facility also remained unchanged. This caused a long move of 18 ticks at the open of the :01 bar in 4 sec, followed by a choppy reversal that found support at 1.6340, just above the S1 Pivot at :46 sec and again late in the :01 bar. An exit at 1.6342 or 43 in the middle of the :01 bar would have been prudent for about 12 ticks. After the :01 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 1 more tick on the :19 bar to nearly reach the 200 SMA. Then it reversed for 27 ticks in the next 26 min as the ECB news was released to hit the LOD.

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