NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4.7.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4.7.2016
Apr 252016
 

NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4_7_2016

4/7/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 7B
Actual: 12B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.968
1st Peak @ 1.944 – 1030:00 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.990 – 1037 (7 min)
46 ticks

Pullback to 1.969 – 1043 (13 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.956 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.953 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.945 (in between the R2 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA)

Notes: Short spike hit the 200 SMA / R2 Mid Pivot and recoiled instantly. Even a profit target would not have been setup in time. Look to exit with a few ticks as it was in an overall uptrend and crossed several layers of support in the move. Nice reversal to eclipse the R3 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD.

6E 06-16 (1 Min) 3.31.2016

 (Core) CPI Flash Estimate  Comments Off on 6E 06-16 (1 Min) 3.31.2016
Apr 242016
 

6E 06-16 (1 Min) 3_31_2016

3/31/2016 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: -0.1%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.1382
1st Peak @ 1.1375 – 0500:22 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.1392 – 0507 (7 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 1.1381 – 0511 (11 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1377
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.1376 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1374 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) – move up slightly

Notes: Dull Fill but offered a breakeven or 1 tick exit at the intersection of the R1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA. A nice reversal followed for 17 ticks to the R1 Pivot.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016

 ISM Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016
Apr 242016
 

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4_1_2016

4/1/2016 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.8
Actual: 51.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008942
1st Peak @ 0.008929 – 1001:09 (2 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008935 – 1004 (4 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008910 – 1014 (14 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.008921 – 1032 (32 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008938 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 0.008930 – 8 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008927 (just below the R1 Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Nice stable spike fell for 13 ticks in a little over 1 min. This would have seen a low slippage short fill then allowed up to 8 ticks to be captured as it slowly settled. Then a small reversal to the 13 SMA followed by a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks to the PP Pivot.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.29.2016

 CB Consumer Confidence  Comments Off on 6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.29.2016
Apr 242016
 

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3_29_2016

3/29/2016 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 93.9
Actual: 96.2
Previous revision: +1.8 to 94.0
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.008836
1st Peak @ 0.008833 – 1000:29 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008838 – 1003 (3 min)
5 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Dull reaction but no move from the origin of 2 ticks or more until about 30 sec after the release. This would have been an easy decision to cancel the trade. After that it continued to remain between the S1 and S1 Mid Pivot for 25 min showing no impulse from the news.

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016

 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  Comments Off on FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016
Apr 242016
 

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3_30_2016

3/30/2016 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 195K
Actual: 200K
Previous revision: -9K to 205K
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 10090.5
1st Bar Span:
10093.5 to 10090.0 – 0831 (1 min)
+6 ticks / -1 tick

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Matching report caused no reaction, so cancel the report after 10 sec.

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016
Apr 242016
 

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 4_1_2016 FDAX 06-16 (Second) 4_1_2016

4/1/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 206K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 215K
Previous Revision: +3K to 245K
Rate Forecast: 4.9%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9780.5
1st Peak @ 9792.0 – 0830:11 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 9776.0 – 0830:21 (1 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 9802.5 – 0830:45 (1 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 9769.5 – 0832 (2 min)
66 ticks

Pullback to 9801.5 – 0835 (5 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 9742.0 – 0841 (11 min)
119 ticks

Pullback to 9772.5 – 0851 (21 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 9712.5 – 0906 (36 min)
120 ticks

Expected Fill: 9785.5 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9791.0 – 11 ticks or 9802.0 – 33 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9870.0 (just above the HOD) – move lower

Notes: The near matching report and conflict on the numbers versus the rate caused a small and oscillating reaction. Your would have had a no slippage long fill, then the exit would have varied greatly. 1. If quick you could have gleaned up to 11 ticks in the first 11 sec. If you did not adjust the stop then it would have barely absorbed the heat and allowed up to 33 ticks later in the bar. However, if the stop was adjusted any it would have taken you out for a loss. After that it reversed to the 50 SMA before pulling back for a double top. Then it stepped lower on a overall downtrend in the next 30 min.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.1.2016
Apr 242016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_1_2016

4/1/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 206K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 215K
Previous Revision: +3K to 245K
Rate Forecast: 4.9%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 164’18
1st Peak @ 164’02 – 0830:54 (1 Min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 164’14 – 0833 (3 Min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 164’01 – 0836 (6 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 164’27 – 0840 (10 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 164’16 – 0842 (12 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 165’10 – 0916 (46 min)
26 ticks

Expected Fill: 164’14 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 164’03 – 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 163’09 (just below the PP Pivot) / 163’01 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Narrow offset caused a smaller but stable spike to fall to the PP Pivot late in the :31 bar. This would have seen a low or no slippage fill then allowed up to 11 ticks to be captured on the PP Pivot. After a reversal to the 13 SMA, it fell for a 2nd peak of 1 more tick to the LOD, then it reversed for the next 40 min to the R2 Pivot.

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 4.12.2016

 WASDE - Corn  Comments Off on ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 4.12.2016
Apr 232016
 

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 4_12_2016

4/12/2016 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 364.00
1st Peak @ 360.00 – 1200:15 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 363.50 – 1203 (3 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 360.25 – 1204 (4 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 362.00 – 1206 (6 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 357.75 – 1212 (12 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 361.00 – 1215 (15 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 362.75 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 360.25 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 360.50 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) and 357.75 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Nice stable short spike of 16 ticks with a no slippage fill allowed up to 10 ticks to be captured. Typical quick swings followed to give way for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks to the PP Pivot.

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3.31.2016

 Grain Stocks  Comments Off on ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3.31.2016
Apr 232016
 

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3_31_2016

3/31/2016 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 362.00
1st Peak @ 353.50 – 1200:59 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 360.75 – 1204 (4 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 353.00 – 1213 (13 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 355.75 – 1219 (19 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 347.75 – 1327 (87 min)
57 ticks

Expected Fill: 360.50 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 353.75 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 354.25 (just below the S3 Pivot)

Notes: Tame short spike offered a no slippage fill and an exit with up to 27 ticks as the :01 bar expired just below the S3 Pivot. Then a nice reversal in 3 min to the 13/20 SMAs followed by a double bottom. After that it trickled lower in about 1.5 hrs to the S4 Pivot.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016

 7y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016
Apr 232016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_30_2016

3/30/2016 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.57/2.3
Actual: 1.61/2.5
DULL FILL…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’07 (1301)
1st Peak @ 163’10 – 1302:29 (1 min)
3 ticks

Final Peak @ 163’28 – 1324 (23 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 163’04 – 1354 (53 min)
24 ticks

Expected Fill: 163’09 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 163’10 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 163’15 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Slow and dull initially. You may have cancelled the orders as it would not have filled the long bracket until 1302:24. If filled, it would have sat on the fill point or 1 tick profit for 2 min before climbing for another 18 ticks in 20 min to the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 24 ticks in 30 min to the 200 SMA / S2 Pivot area.

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