4/1/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 206K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 215K
Previous Revision: +3K to 245K
Rate Forecast: 4.9%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 164’18
1st Peak @ 164’02 – 0830:54 (1 Min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 164’14 – 0833 (3 Min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 164’01 – 0836 (6 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 164’27 – 0840 (10 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 164’16 – 0842 (12 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 165’10 – 0916 (46 min)
26 ticks

Expected Fill: 164’14 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 164’03 – 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 163’09 (just below the PP Pivot) / 163’01 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Narrow offset caused a smaller but stable spike to fall to the PP Pivot late in the :31 bar. This would have seen a low or no slippage fill then allowed up to 11 ticks to be captured on the PP Pivot. After a reversal to the 13 SMA, it fell for a 2nd peak of 1 more tick to the LOD, then it reversed for the next 40 min to the R2 Pivot.

3/4/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 195K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 242K
Previous Revision: +21K to 172K
Rate Forecast: 4.9%
Rate Actual: 4.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’21
1st Peak @ 163’04 – 0830:01 (1 Min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 163’25 – 0830:27 (1 Min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 163’01 – 0831:13 (2 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @ 162’08 – 0837 (7 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 163’16 – 0902 (32 min)
40 ticks

Expected Fill: 163’18 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 163’05 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 163’09 (just below the PP Pivot) / 163’01 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strong report caused a moderate short move initially, but it recoiled and fully reversed after about 30 sec. A profit target of 13 ticks or less would have filled. If not filled, look to exit on the hovering at 163’10 at the PP Pivot. If you did not exit, the reversal would have stopped you out with 5 ticks in the middle of the :31 bar. Then it fell strongly again and kept stepping lower for a final peak of 45 ticks in 6 min as it eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot. After the final peak, it followed the reversal of the equity markets and reversed for 40 ticks to the 200 SMA.

4/4/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 199K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 192K
Previous Revision: +22K to 192K
Rate Forecast: 6.6%
Rate Actual: 6.7%
INDECISIVE (STOP GAPPED)
Started @ 132’07
1st Peak @ 131’21 – 0830:00 (1 min)
-18 ticks

Reversal to 132’28 – 0830:05 (1 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 131’31 – 0837 (7 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 132’21 – 0906 (36 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Perfect storm scenario with a near matching # on the jobs with only 7k off the forecast, while the rate came in 0.1% worse than expected and we saw an a previous upward revision of 22K jobs. This caused a 18 tick short spike that eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot, followed by a 5 sec market freeze. When the freeze ended, the market opened with a 26 tick gap and resulted in a 39 tick reversal that nearly reached the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 131’30 with about 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall to give 9 ticks of profit before the freeze. After the freeze, the stop at 132’03 would have been gapped as it has an 8 tick slippage limit imposed by the CME. Since the market emerged from the freeze at 132’15, this would have been 12 ticks beyond the stop and 4 ticks beyond the slippage limit. This is the first time this has happened with JOBB with any report. The Non Farm report on the ZB presents the most risk for this scenario with the tight 8 tick banding limit. In this situation, you can respond 2 ways: 1)panic and get out immediately with about 20 ticks loss, or 2) take a breath and evaluate the situation. Since it was a matching report, you can expect it to return to near the price level at the origin. Since we have all the major SMAs in a fist and the PP Pivot at about 132’04, wait for it to come down to that area in about 15 min. Sure enough it fell to 132’02 in 5 min, then another 3 ticks at 7 min. Add a manual stop above the action and trail it down about 4-5 ticks above the price and set the profit target at 132’03 for a 5 tick loss. After the pullback crossed the S1 Mid Pivot, it reversed for 22 ticks in the next 30 min to the R2 Pivot. Then it backed off and traded sideways.

6/6/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 214K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 217K
Previous Revision: -6K to 282K
Rate Forecast: 6.4%
Rate Actual: 6.3%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 1939.00 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1941.50 – 0830:35 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 1940.00 – 0831:20 (2 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1943.75 – 0833:29 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1940.50 – 0851 (21 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1933.00 (just below the PP Pivot) / 1929.50 (just below the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 1946.00 (on the R1 Pivot) / 1949.50 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Nearly matching report with 3K more jobs added than the forecast, a small downward revision to the previous report and a drop of 0.1% in the U-3 rate. Due to the match, this caused an initial spike of only 10 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, but fell short of the HOD. This would have been well contained inside the Trap Trade after 30 sec, so cancel the order. After a small reversal of 6 ticks, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next 2 min. Then it reversed for 13 ticks to the 200 SMAon the next 17 min. After that, it continued to swing up and down between the HOD and 100 SMA.

8/1/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 231K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 209K
Previous Revision: +10K to 298K
Rate Forecast: 6.1%
Rate Actual: 6.2%
TRAP TRADE – TIER 2 (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1913.25 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1922.00 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))35 ticks

)))Reversal to 1919.50 – 0830:26 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Pullback to 1925.00 – 0830:45 (1 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 1918.00 – 0831:34 (2 min)
)))28 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1926.75 – 0849 (19 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 1918.00 – 0918 (48 min)
35 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1907.00 (No SMA/ Pivot near) / 1903.25 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1919.50 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1923.75 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Moderately negative report with 22K less jobs added than the forecast, a small upward revision to the previous report and an uptick of 0.1% in the U-3 rate. We saw a long spike of 35 ticks in the first 18 sec then a brief reversal followed by another push for 12 more ticks after 45 sec. This would have filled the inner short tier on initial burst, then the outer tier on the next move. With an average short position of 1921.75, look to exit at about 1919.50 for 17 total ticks. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after 19 min, then it reversed 35 ticks in the next 29 min to the 100 SMA.