4/13/2016 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.90/2.5
Actual: 1.77/2.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 165’13 (1301)
1st Peak @ 165’21 – 1302:14 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 165’23 – 1305 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 165’19 – 1308 (7 min)
4 ticks

Final Peak @ 165’28 – 1319 (18 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 165’23 – 1340 (39 min)
5 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’15 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 165’21 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’18 (just above the 50 SMA) and 165’22 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Slow moving initially, but it turned into a nice spike of 8 ticks as it popped just before the :02 bar expired. This would have allowed up to 6 ticks to be captured when it stalled below the R1 Pivot. It achieved 2 more ticks before a 4 tick reversal and then climbed for a final peak as it rode the 13 SMA upward for another 5 ticks.

3/10/2016 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.50/2.1
Actual: 2.72/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 161’25 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 162’03 – 1303:34 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 161’30 – 1307 (6 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 162’08 – 1326 (25 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 161’31 – 1334 (33 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 162’14 – 1417 (76 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 162’08 – 1436 (95 min)
6 ticks

Expected Fill: 161’28 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 162’02 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’31 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Nice long spike, but very slow. It also stalled for about 30 sec at 161’29 as the resistance of the 100 SMA and S2 Pivot held it down. Once it broke free, it grabbed another 5 ticks. Then it stepped higher for a 2nd and Final peak as it used the 50 SMA as support.

2/26/2016 7-yr Bond Auction (1131 EST)
Previous: 1.76/2.6
Actual: 1.57/2.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 165’29 (1131)
1st Peak @ 165’15 – 1132:20 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 165’27 – 1136 (5 min)
12 ticks

Continued Reversal to 166’01 – 1203 (62 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’26 (short)
Slippage: 1 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 165’16 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’21 (just below the 3 Major SMAs)

Notes: Large quick spike cut right through several layers of support to allow up to 10 ticks to be captured. No 2nd peak probably due to the lingering effect of the strong support just crossed as it reversed 12 ticks in 4 min.

2/10/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.09/2.8
Actual: 1.73/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 166’14 (1301)
1st Peak @ 166’20 – 1301:36 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 166’13 – 1305 (4 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 167’03 – 1354 (53 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 166’28 – 1407 (66 min)
7 ticks

Expected Fill: 166’16 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 166’19 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 166’19 and 166’21 (just below / above the 100 / 50 SMAs)

Notes: Spike was quick to shoot 6 ticks reaching the 100 SMA then hovering for 20 sec to allow 3 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed to the 200 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in the next hour.

2/13/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.90/2.6
Actual: 3.69/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’00 (1301)
1st Peak @ 133’07 – 1302 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 133’00 – 1305 (4 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell quite a bit from the last auction and consistent with the 10-y auction the day before. The bid to cover ratio was quite a bit lower signaling lower demand. This caused the bonds to rally for 7 ticks as it only crossed the HOD. It was briefly sustained and left 4 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB you would have filled long at 133’03 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to capture only about 1-3 ticks as it did not linger at the top for more than 3 sec. Then it reversed quickly to the origin in the next 3 min. After that it attempted to rally and was only able to climb within 1 tick of the 1st peak and trade sideways.