ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

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May 042016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.90/2.5
Actual: 1.77/2.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 165’13 (1301)
1st Peak @ 165’21 – 1302:14 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 165’23 – 1305 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 165’19 – 1308 (7 min)
4 ticks

Final Peak @ 165’28 – 1319 (18 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 165’23 – 1340 (39 min)
5 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’15 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 165’21 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’18 (just above the 50 SMA) and 165’22 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Slow moving initially, but it turned into a nice spike of 8 ticks as it popped just before the :02 bar expired. This would have allowed up to 6 ticks to be captured when it stalled below the R1 Pivot. It achieved 2 more ticks before a 4 tick reversal and then climbed for a final peak as it rode the 13 SMA upward for another 5 ticks.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

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Mar 312016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 1.73/2.6
Actual: 1.90/2.5
INDECISIVE
Started @ 162’31 (1301)
1st Peak @ 162’28 – 1301:35 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 163’04 – 1302:13 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 162’21 – 1302:54 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 162’31 – 1322 (21 min)
10 ticks

Expected Fill: 162’29 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 163’00 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 162’25 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Notes: A rare indecisive bond auction. It fell 3 ticks for a no slippage fill then backed off and reversed to the 200 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot. This would have hit the 3 tick stop. Then it fell strongly for a 2nd peak of 10 ticks in less than a min. After that it reversed 10 ticks to the 50/100 SMAs.

Notes: Spike was quick to shoot 6 ticks reaching the 100 SMA then hovering for 20 sec to allow 3 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed to the 200 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in the next hour.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.10.2016

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Feb 272016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_10_2016

2/10/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.09/2.8
Actual: 1.73/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 166’14 (1301)
1st Peak @ 166’20 – 1301:36 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 166’13 – 1305 (4 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 167’03 – 1354 (53 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 166’28 – 1407 (66 min)
7 ticks

Expected Fill: 166’16 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 166’19 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 166’19 and 166’21 (just below / above the 100 / 50 SMAs)

Notes: Spike was quick to shoot 6 ticks reaching the 100 SMA then hovering for 20 sec to allow 3 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed to the 200 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in the next hour.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.12.2014

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Feb 282014
 

ZB 03-14 (1 Min)  2_12_2014

Caption for 2/12:
2/12/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.01/2.7
Actual: 2.80/2.5
DULL REACTION (No Fill)
Started @ 132’06 (1301)
Only 1 tick of movement through the 1304 bar.

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell back below 3.00 to be more consistent with the range of the last 6 months. This caused the ZB to yawn with no impulse as the 50 and 100 SMAs kept it reigned in from the top. Fortunately with JOBB, you would not have filled with a 2 tick bracket, so cancel the order. After a small 2 tick bump long that could not escape the 100 SMA, it fell 6 ticks to the S2 Pivot and LOD.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.12.2014

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Mar 272014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  3_12_2014

3/12/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.80/2.5
Actual: 2.73/2.9
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 132’02 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 132’07 – 1301:43 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 132’04 – 1302:35 (2 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 132’09 – 1315 (14 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 132’03 – 1408 (67 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 131’30 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 131’27 (just below the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 132’06 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot ) / 132’10 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield continued to fall after topping 3.00 in January. This caused the ZB to pop long for 5 ticks, then back off and hover between 2-4 ticks near the R3 Mid Pivot. This would have filled your inner short entry at 132’06 with 1 tick to spare, then allowed an exit between breakeven and +2 ticks as it hovered. This is a situation where the prudent play is to exit safely with what the market is yielding. When it tried to reverse for 10 min and was unable to fall below 132’04, do not get greedy. After the reversal, it achieved a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks after 10 min, then reversed for 6 ticks to the 200 SMA.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.9.2014

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May 012014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  4_9_2014

4/9/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.73/2.9
Actual: 2.72/2.8
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 133’13 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 133’09 – 1301:37 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 133’11 – 1301:47 (1 min)
)))2 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 133’07 – 1304 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 133’11 – 1310 (9 min)
4 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 133’10 (just below the 200 SMA) / 133’05 (on the LOD)
Short entries – 133’17 (just above the PP Pivot ) / 133’20 (on the OOD)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield nearly matched last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for 4 ticks, then back off and hover on your fill point for about 1 minute. In this case, either look to exit at Breakeven or move the stop up to -1 tick and the profit target to +2 ticks. As it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and all 3 major SMAs on the drop, it is reasonable to expect a small correction back to the S1 Mid Pivot. When that did not happen, you would have taken a 1 tick loss. After the :02 bar, it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks to the S1 Pivot, then reversed for 4 ticks back to the SMAs. Then it fell again and traded sideways on the S1 Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.7.2014

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May 252014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  5_7_2014

5/7/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.72/2.8
Actual: 2.61/2.6
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 136’01 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 136’04 – 1301:38 (1 min)
)))3 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’01 – 1302:20 (2 min)
)))-3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 136’08 – 1312 (11 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 136’02 – 1320 (19 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 135’29 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 135’26 (on the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 136’05 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot ) / 136’09 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield retreated a bit from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop long for only 3 ticks in a dull reaction, then back off to the origin after about 45 sec. This would not have impulse to fill the inner tier, so cancel the order. After the :02 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot in 9 min before reversing 6 ticks to the 100 SMA in the next 8 min.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.11.2014

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Jul 032014
 

ZB 09-14 (1 Min)  6_11_2014

6/11/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.61/2.6
Actual: 2.65/2.9
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 135’01 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 134’28 – 1301:37 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 134’31 – 1301:40 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 134’24 – 1306 (5 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 134’30 – 1311 (10 min)
6 ticks

Double Bottom @ 134’24 – 1336 (35 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 135’05 – 1424 (83 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 134’28 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 134’25 (in between the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD)
Short entries – 135’05 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 135’08 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose a bit from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for 5 ticks, then quickly back off for 3 ticks after 3 sec, then fall again. This would have filled the inner tier then hovered near the fill point for 3 min. In this case, you can exit near breakeven, or wait it out with the outer tier still on the board in case of a 2nd peak and follow on reversal. As it fell later, it would have filled the outer long entry then rebounded allowing 5-7 total ticks on both fills to be captured. Then it made a double bottom and reversed for 13 ticks nearly 1.5 hrs after the auction.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.9.2014

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Jul 202014
 

ZB 09-14 (1 Min)  7_9_2014

7/9/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.65/2.9
Actual: 2.60/2.6
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 136’16 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 136’11 – 1301:53 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’13 – 1301:58 (1 min)
)))2 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 136’10 – 1304 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 136’14 – 1312 (11 min)
4 ticks

Double Bottom @ 136’10 – 1314 (13 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 136’12 (just below the LOD) / 136’08 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 136’20 (just above the 200 SMA) / 136’23 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell a bit from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for 5 ticks, then quickly back off for only 2 ticks after 5 sec. This would have filled the inner tier then hovered between 1 and 2 ticks of profit. Look to exit there. It fell for 1 more tick on the :04 bar, then traded sideways between the LOD and PP Pivot.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 8.13.2014

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Aug 312014
 

ZB 09-14 (1 Min)  8_13_2014

8/13/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.60/2.6
Actual: 2.44/2.8
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 139’11 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 139’08 – 1301:47 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 139’10 – 1302:39 (2 min)
)))2 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 139’06 – 1305 (4 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 139’18 – 1328 (27 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 139’07 (just below the 200 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot) / 139’03 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 139’15 (No SMA/Pivot near) / 139’18 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell a bit from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for only 3 ticks, then back off for only 2 ticks after about 1 min. This would have missed the inner long entry, so cancel the order. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks after 2 min, then reversed for 12 ticks in the next 23 min to the R2 Mid Pivot.