3/30/2016 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.57/2.3
Actual: 1.61/2.5
DULL FILL…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’07 (1301)
1st Peak @ 163’10 – 1302:29 (1 min)
3 ticks

Final Peak @ 163’28 – 1324 (23 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 163’04 – 1354 (53 min)
24 ticks

Expected Fill: 163’09 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 163’10 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 163’15 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Slow and dull initially. You may have cancelled the orders as it would not have filled the long bracket until 1302:24. If filled, it would have sat on the fill point or 1 tick profit for 2 min before climbing for another 18 ticks in 20 min to the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 24 ticks in 30 min to the 200 SMA / S2 Pivot area.

2/27/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.19/2.7
Actual: 2.11/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 133’00 – 1312 (11 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’28 – 1346 (45 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 133’06 – 1504 (123 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.11 continued to fall back after a high of 2.39 in December now that tapering has started. This caused a typical slow but safe move that would have yielded 2-3 ticks after it fell through the 100/200 SMAs and R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 133’03 with no slippage late on the :04 bar then given you 2-3 ticks of profit on the :07 – :14 bars where it stalled for a few min. After a 2 tick reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 10 ticks back to the origin in the next 80 min, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot and all 3 major SMAs.

4/24/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.26/2.6
Actual: 2.32/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’11 – 1309 (8 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’17 – 1341 (40 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 134’12 – 1358 (57 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.32 rose from last month. This caused a small initial 2 tick bump followed by another 3 ticks in the next 7 min as it crossed all 3 major SMAs, the OOD, and the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled initially at 134’08 with no slippage just a few sec after order placement. It would have hovered for about 3-4 min between breakeven and 1 tick loss. Move the stop to 134’05 and be patient using 134’09 or 10 as a profit target. This would have secured 1-2 ticks in a few min. After stalling on the OOD for about 10 min, it kept climbing another 6 ticks for a 2nd peak at the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD in about 30 min. Then it reversed for 5 ticks to the 50 SMA and PP Pivot.

6/26/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.01/2.6
Actual: 2.15/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 137’04 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’00 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 137’03 – 1310 (9 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 136’30 – 1321 (20 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 137’04 – 1415 (74 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.15 rebounded from the dip of last month. This caused a 4 tick short move in at :36 sec into the 02 bar as it crossed the 50 SMA and reached the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 137’02 with no slippage. It would have fallen and hovered for about 3-4 min between breakeven and 2 ticks of profit. Look to exit at 137’01 or 00 for 1-2 ticks. After a reversal of 3 ticks, it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks to breach the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 6 ticks back to the origin in the next hour.

8/28/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.25/2.6
Actual: 2.05/2.6
DULL REACTION
Started @ 141’20 (1301)
1st Peak @ 141’23 – 1302 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 141’13 – 1341 (40 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 141’23 – 1436 (95 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 141’19 – 1442 (101 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.05 fell from last month while the bid to cover ratio remained very strong at 2.6. This caused a dull reaction that did not move more that 1 tick on the :02 bar, then achieved 2 ticks on the :03 bar, crossing the R2 Pivot and reaching the 50/100 SMAs. With JOBB, you would not have seen an impulse to fill the long entry until after the :02 bar expired, so cancel the order. If you did not cancel, you would have been filled at the early part of the :03 bar at 141’22 with no slippage then allowed an exit at breakeven as it hovered between the fill point and 1 tick of profit for almost all of the :03 bar. After that it reversed for 10 ticks in 39 min to the R1 Pivot, then pulled back to recover the lost ground in the next 55 min to the R2 Pivot and 200 SMA. Then it fell 4 ticks in the next 6 min to the 100/50 SMAs.