ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016

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Apr 232016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_30_2016

3/30/2016 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.57/2.3
Actual: 1.61/2.5
DULL FILL…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’07 (1301)
1st Peak @ 163’10 – 1302:29 (1 min)
3 ticks

Final Peak @ 163’28 – 1324 (23 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 163’04 – 1354 (53 min)
24 ticks

Expected Fill: 163’09 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 163’10 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 163’15 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Slow and dull initially. You may have cancelled the orders as it would not have filled the long bracket until 1302:24. If filled, it would have sat on the fill point or 1 tick profit for 2 min before climbing for another 18 ticks in 20 min to the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 24 ticks in 30 min to the 200 SMA / S2 Pivot area.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.26.2016

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Feb 282016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_26_2016

2/26/2016 7-yr Bond Auction (1131 EST)
Previous: 1.76/2.6
Actual: 1.57/2.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 165’29 (1131)
1st Peak @ 165’15 – 1132:20 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 165’27 – 1136 (5 min)
12 ticks

Continued Reversal to 166’01 – 1203 (62 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’26 (short)
Slippage: 1 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 165’16 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’21 (just below the 3 Major SMAs)

Notes: Large quick spike cut right through several layers of support to allow up to 10 ticks to be captured. No 2nd peak probably due to the lingering effect of the strong support just crossed as it reversed 12 ticks in 4 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 2.27.2014

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Mar 112014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  2_27_2014

2/27/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.19/2.7
Actual: 2.11/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 133’00 – 1312 (11 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’28 – 1346 (45 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 133’06 – 1504 (123 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.11 continued to fall back after a high of 2.39 in December now that tapering has started. This caused a typical slow but safe move that would have yielded 2-3 ticks after it fell through the 100/200 SMAs and R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 133’03 with no slippage late on the :04 bar then given you 2-3 ticks of profit on the :07 – :14 bars where it stalled for a few min. After a 2 tick reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 10 ticks back to the origin in the next 80 min, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot and all 3 major SMAs.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.27.2014

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Apr 182014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  3_27_2014

3/27/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.11/2.7
Actual: 2.26/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’09 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 134’01 – 1307 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’16 – 1352 (51 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 133’29 – 1630 (209 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.26 rebounded from last month. This caused a quick pop of 4 ticks that remained within 1 tick of breakeven for about 2 min as it crossed the 20/13 SMAs and nearly reached the HOD. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 134’08 with 1 tick of slippage just a few sec after order placement. With the quick spike, move the stop up to -1 tick and the profit target down to 134’10 on the HOD. The stop would have filled after about 45 sec as it reversed for 8 ticks in the next 5 min, crossing the 100/50 SMAs and the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in the next 45 min. After that it fell for a slow developing reversal of 19 ticks in 2.5 hrs heading into the session close down to the R1 Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.24.2014

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May 132014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  4_24_2014

4/24/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.26/2.6
Actual: 2.32/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’11 – 1309 (8 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’17 – 1341 (40 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 134’12 – 1358 (57 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.32 rose from last month. This caused a small initial 2 tick bump followed by another 3 ticks in the next 7 min as it crossed all 3 major SMAs, the OOD, and the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled initially at 134’08 with no slippage just a few sec after order placement. It would have hovered for about 3-4 min between breakeven and 1 tick loss. Move the stop to 134’05 and be patient using 134’09 or 10 as a profit target. This would have secured 1-2 ticks in a few min. After stalling on the OOD for about 10 min, it kept climbing another 6 ticks for a 2nd peak at the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD in about 30 min. Then it reversed for 5 ticks to the 50 SMA and PP Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.29.2014

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Jun 042014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  5_29_2014

5/29/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.32/2.6
Actual: 2.01/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 138’25 (1301)
1st Peak @ 138’21 – 1304 (3 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 138’26 – 1308 (7 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 138’08 – 1358 (57 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 138’18 – 1441 (100 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.01 fell quite a bit from last month. This caused a 4 tick short move in 3 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled initially at 138’23 with no slippage. It would have fallen and hovered for about 3-4 min between 1 and 2 ticks of profit. I had my profit target at 138’21 and it did not fill, so I moved the stop on the reversal to 138’27, just above the 100 SMA and waited for a 2nd peak. Then I captured the 2 ticks on the 2nd peak on the :16 bar. It continued to fall for a total of 13 more ticks in the next 50 min as it crossed the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 10 ticks in the next 43 min to the 100 SMA and OOD.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.26.2014

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Jul 092014
 

ZB 09-14 (1 Min)  6_26_2014

6/26/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.01/2.6
Actual: 2.15/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 137’04 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’00 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 137’03 – 1310 (9 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 136’30 – 1321 (20 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 137’04 – 1415 (74 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.15 rebounded from the dip of last month. This caused a 4 tick short move in at :36 sec into the 02 bar as it crossed the 50 SMA and reached the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 137’02 with no slippage. It would have fallen and hovered for about 3-4 min between breakeven and 2 ticks of profit. Look to exit at 137’01 or 00 for 1-2 ticks. After a reversal of 3 ticks, it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks to breach the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 6 ticks back to the origin in the next hour.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.30.2014

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Aug 182014
 

ZB 09-14 (1 Min)  7_30_2014

7/30/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.15/2.4
Actual: 2.25/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 137’21 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’14 – 1302 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 137’18 – 1304 (3 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 137’12 – 1310 (9 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 137’21 – 1339 (38 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.25 rose from the dip of last month while the bid to cover ratio was very strong at 2.6. This caused a large 7 tick short move at :35 sec into the 02 bar as it crossed the S3 Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 137’18 with 1 tick of slippage. It would have fallen and hovered for about 30 sec within 1 tick of the low to allow an exit with 3-4 ticks. Since it crossed the S3 Pivot and extended the LOD after a large bearish trend, do not wait to exit after presented a good opportunity. It reversed for 4 ticks in 2 min to the S3 Pivot, then fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks after 6 min. Then it reversed for 9 ticks to the 100 SMA in the next 29 min.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 8.28.2014

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Sep 092014
 

ZB 09-14 (1 Min)  8_28_2014

8/28/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.25/2.6
Actual: 2.05/2.6
DULL REACTION
Started @ 141’20 (1301)
1st Peak @ 141’23 – 1302 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 141’13 – 1341 (40 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 141’23 – 1436 (95 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 141’19 – 1442 (101 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.05 fell from last month while the bid to cover ratio remained very strong at 2.6. This caused a dull reaction that did not move more that 1 tick on the :02 bar, then achieved 2 ticks on the :03 bar, crossing the R2 Pivot and reaching the 50/100 SMAs. With JOBB, you would not have seen an impulse to fill the long entry until after the :02 bar expired, so cancel the order. If you did not cancel, you would have been filled at the early part of the :03 bar at 141’22 with no slippage then allowed an exit at breakeven as it hovered between the fill point and 1 tick of profit for almost all of the :03 bar. After that it reversed for 10 ticks in 39 min to the R1 Pivot, then pulled back to recover the lost ground in the next 55 min to the R2 Pivot and 200 SMA. Then it fell 4 ticks in the next 6 min to the 100/50 SMAs.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.25.2014

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Oct 132014
 

ZB 12-14 (1 Min)  9_25_2014

9/25/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.05/2.6
Actual: 2.24/2.5
DULL REACTION – FILL
Started @ 137’24 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’21 – 1302 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 137’26 – 1305 (4 min)
5 ticks

Pullback to 137’22 – 1322 (21 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 138’00 – 1356 (55 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.24 rose substantially from last month while the bid to cover ratio tapered slightly to 2.5. This caused a dull reaction that fell 3 ticks as it crossed the 200 SMA. With JOBB, you would have been filled short at 137’22 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 0-1 ticks as it hovered late in the :02 to early :03 bars. Then it reversed 5 ticks in 4 min, crossing the 100/50 SMAs to reach the R2 Pivot. After that it pulled back 4 ticks to the 200 SMA in 17 min, then reversed 10 ticks in the next 34 min to extend the HOD.