6/11/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.61/2.6
Actual: 2.65/2.9
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 135’01 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 134’28 – 1301:37 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 134’31 – 1301:40 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 134’24 – 1306 (5 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 134’30 – 1311 (10 min)
6 ticks

Double Bottom @ 134’24 – 1336 (35 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 135’05 – 1424 (83 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 134’28 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 134’25 (in between the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD)
Short entries – 135’05 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 135’08 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose a bit from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for 5 ticks, then quickly back off for 3 ticks after 3 sec, then fall again. This would have filled the inner tier then hovered near the fill point for 3 min. In this case, you can exit near breakeven, or wait it out with the outer tier still on the board in case of a 2nd peak and follow on reversal. As it fell later, it would have filled the outer long entry then rebounded allowing 5-7 total ticks on both fills to be captured. Then it made a double bottom and reversed for 13 ticks nearly 1.5 hrs after the auction.

6/26/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.01/2.6
Actual: 2.15/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 137’04 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’00 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 137’03 – 1310 (9 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 136’30 – 1321 (20 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 137’04 – 1415 (74 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.15 rebounded from the dip of last month. This caused a 4 tick short move in at :36 sec into the 02 bar as it crossed the 50 SMA and reached the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 137’02 with no slippage. It would have fallen and hovered for about 3-4 min between breakeven and 2 ticks of profit. Look to exit at 137’01 or 00 for 1-2 ticks. After a reversal of 3 ticks, it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks to breach the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 6 ticks back to the origin in the next hour.

7/10/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.44/2.7
Actual: 3.37/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 137’08 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’02 – 1302 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 137’07 – 1303 (2 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 136’29 – 1342 (41 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 137’04 – 1353 (52 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell slightly from last month, but the demand fell off a bit. This caused the bonds to spike short for a small reaction of 6 ticks that started on the R1 Pivot and 100/50 SMAs, then fell. With JOBB you would have filled short at 137’05 with no slippage, then seen it hover between your fill point and +2 ticks for about 30 sec. You could have exited there, or waited for the secondary drop which fell nicely after 10 min to the R1 Mid pivot for another 2 ticks beyond the 1st peak allowing up to 4-5 ticks to be captured. Then the final peak fell another 3 ticks after another 30 min. after that it reversed for 7 ticks in 11 min to the 100 SMA.

8/13/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.60/2.6
Actual: 2.44/2.8
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 139’11 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 139’08 – 1301:47 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 139’10 – 1302:39 (2 min)
)))2 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 139’06 – 1305 (4 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 139’18 – 1328 (27 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 139’07 (just below the 200 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot) / 139’03 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 139’15 (No SMA/Pivot near) / 139’18 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell a bit from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for only 3 ticks, then back off for only 2 ticks after about 1 min. This would have missed the inner long entry, so cancel the order. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks after 2 min, then reversed for 12 ticks in the next 23 min to the R2 Mid Pivot.

8/28/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.25/2.6
Actual: 2.05/2.6
DULL REACTION
Started @ 141’20 (1301)
1st Peak @ 141’23 – 1302 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 141’13 – 1341 (40 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 141’23 – 1436 (95 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 141’19 – 1442 (101 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.05 fell from last month while the bid to cover ratio remained very strong at 2.6. This caused a dull reaction that did not move more that 1 tick on the :02 bar, then achieved 2 ticks on the :03 bar, crossing the R2 Pivot and reaching the 50/100 SMAs. With JOBB, you would not have seen an impulse to fill the long entry until after the :02 bar expired, so cancel the order. If you did not cancel, you would have been filled at the early part of the :03 bar at 141’22 with no slippage then allowed an exit at breakeven as it hovered between the fill point and 1 tick of profit for almost all of the :03 bar. After that it reversed for 10 ticks in 39 min to the R1 Pivot, then pulled back to recover the lost ground in the next 55 min to the R2 Pivot and 200 SMA. Then it fell 4 ticks in the next 6 min to the 100/50 SMAs.