9/11/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.22/2.6
Actual: 3.24/2.7
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 137’08 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’19 – 1303:06 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 137’14 – 1305 (4 min)
5 ticks

Double top to 137’19 – 1308 (7 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 137’09 – 1323 (22 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 137’15 – 1334 (33 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 137’07 – 1346 (45 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose slightly from last month, but the demand rose. This caused the bonds to spike long for a healthy reaction of 11 ticks that started on the 100 / 50 SMAs and R1 Mid Pivot then rose to cross the 200 SMA and R2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 137’13 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover around 137’17 near the R2 Pivot for over a minute for an ideal exit of 4-5 ticks. It peaked at 137’19 early in the :04 bar, then chopped in the next 5 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks in the next 15 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. After that it pulled back for 6 ticks in 11 min before reversing for 8 ticks in the next 22 min.

10/8/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.54/2.7
Actual: 2.38/2.5
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 140’11 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 140’03 – 1302:32 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 140’06 – 1307:45 (7 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Double Bottom @ 140’02 – 1318 (17 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 140’06 – 1322 (21 min)
4 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 140’07 (just below the PP Pivot) / 140’03 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 140’16 (on the 100 SMA) / 140’19 (on the 200 SMA)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell strongly from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for a large decisive spike of 8 ticks. This would have filled both of your long entries in a staggered fashion, then hovered near the outer tier fill point for nearly 5 min. Be patient and wait for a small reversal, but move your stop to 140’00. It rebounded 4 ticks after 5 min to reach the 13 SMA, then hovered for about 1 min to allow an easy exit with 1 tick of profit. Then it continued to trade between the LOD and 140’06 until the FOMC meeting minutes at 1400.

10/9/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.24/2.7
Actual: 3.07/2.4
DULL REACTION
Started @ 140’21 (1301)
1st Peak @ 140’18 – 1301:55 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 140’22 – 1303 (2 min)
4 ticks

Continued Reversal to 141’06 – 1314 (13 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 140’17 – 1347 (46 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 140’27 – 1357 (56 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest fell strongly from last month, and the demand tapered. This caused the bonds to have a muted reaction initially that fell only 3 ticks to the LOD, then reversed 4 ticks late in the :03 bar. With JOBB you would have filled short at 140’18 with no slippage, then seen it back off and at 2 ticks in the red. Look to exit there on the dull reaction with the LOD appearing strong to prevent any downward momentum. In a bizarre delayed reaction, the reversal then continued to climb 16 more ticks in the next 11 min to the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed back to the LOD in the next 33 min. After that it returned to the SMAs and R1 Mid Pivot to trade sideways.

11/12/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.38/2.5
Actual: 2.37/2.5
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 141’05 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 141’01 – 1301:36 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 141’04 – 1302:36 (2 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Pullback to 141’00 – 1309 (8 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 141’06 – 1322 (21 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 141’01 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 140’29 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entries – 141’10 (just above the 100 SMA) / 141’13 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest was unchanged from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for 4 ticks to the R1 Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry if it was placed at 141’01, but not lower. It reversed 3 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot after about a minute to allow 2-3 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back 4 ticks in the next 6 min before reversing 6 ticks to the R2 Pivot and 50 SMA. After that it continued to trend lower to resume the sentiment from before the auction.

12/10/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.37/2.5
Actual: 2.21/3.0
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 143’11 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 143’14 – 1301:54 (1 min)
)))3 ticks

)))Reversal to 143’09 – 1302:21 (2 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 143’06 – 1305 (4 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 143’15 – 1314 (13 min)
4 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 143’07 (just below the PP Pivot / OOD) / 140’29 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entries – 143’15 (just above the 100 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot) / 143’04 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell strongly from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop long for only 3 ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot as it crossed the 200 / 50 SMAs. This would have fallen 1 tick short of your inner short entry, so cancel the order. After the peak, it reversed 5 ticks in 27 sec then another 3 ticks in the next 2 min to eclipse the PP Pivot and OOD. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 1 more tick in the next 9 min to the R1 Mid Pivot and 100/200 SMAs all on top of each other.