4/8/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 164’22
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 164’26 – 1400:05 (1 min)
)))4 ticks

)))Reversal to 164’19 – 1400:44 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 164’30 – 1402 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 164’10 – 1409 (9 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 164’29 – 1419 (19 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 164’17 (just below the 20 SMA) / 164’14 (just above the 50 SMA)
Short entries – 164’27 (just below the OOD) / 164’30 (just above the HOD)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was divided on when to hike rates (June or later). This caused a long spike of only 4 ticks that started a few sec premature and peaked 5 sec into the :01 bar. It lingered for only 3 sec to not allow a manual shifted entry before reversing, so cancel the order. It fell 7 ticks in about 40 sec before climbing for a 2nd peak of 4 more in 1 min as it eclipsed the OOD. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 7 min, crossing the 50 SMA and reaching the PP Pivot. After that it pulled back 19 ticks in 10 min to the OOD.

4/29/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.79/2.3
Actual: 1.82/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 159’01 (1301)
1st Peak @ 159’10 – 1303:29 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 159’06 – 1308 (6 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 159’20 – 1314 (12 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 159’12 – 1321 (19 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.82 climbed slightly from last month while the bid to cover ratio also rose slightly to 2.4. This caused the bonds to rally 9 ticks in about 2 min to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 159’03 with no slippage. Look to exit at 159’06 with 3 ticks where it hovered initially on the 100 SMA, or wait until it reached the 200 SMA and snag 6 total ticks a minute later. After that it reversed 4 ticks in 4 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 7 min to the S2 Mid Pivot.

5/14/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.60/2.2
Actual: 3.04/2.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 153’15 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 152’26 – 1301:49 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 153’06 – 1304 (3 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 152’16 – 1318 (17 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 153’10 – 1330 (29 min)
26 ticks

Double Bottom @ 152’16 – 1412 (71 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 late. The highest yield rose strongly from last month as the bid to cover ratio remained the same. This caused the bonds to fall for another monumental spike of 21 ticks at 1:40 to cross all 3 major SMAs then bottom near a point of support from previous lows in the past few hours. With JOBB you would have filled short at 153’09 with about 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall and hover between around 152’30 to allow about 11 ticks to be captured. After the spike, it reversed 12 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA before stepping lower for a final peak of 10 more ticks in 14 min to nearly reach the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 26 ticks to the PP Pivot in 12 min before falling for a double bottom in 42 min.

6/10/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.24/2.7
Actual: 2.46/2.7
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 148’01 (1301) (On the S2 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 148’10 – 1301:35 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 148’06 – 1301:59 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 148’14 – 1304 (3 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 148’04 – 1310 (9 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 148’14 – 1322 (21 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 147’29 – 1357 (56 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 147’29 (just below the 200 SMA) / 147’26 (just above the 50/100 SMAs)
Short entries – 148’06 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 148’09 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 – 1:40 late. The highest yield rose considerably from last month’s auction while the bid to cover ratio stayed the same. This caused the ZB to spike long 9 ticks at 1301:35 then reverse 4 ticks in 24 sec. This would have filled both short entries making the average short position 148’07.5. It reversed to 148’06 and hovered for about 30 sec to allow 1-3 ticks to be captured. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 2 min to the S1 Pivot before reversing 10 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA. Then it climbed for a double top in 12 min before reversing 17 ticks in 35 min to the 200 SMA.

6/25/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.82/2.4
Actual: 2.15/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 149’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 149’12 – 1301:49 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 149’08 – 1305 (3 min)
4 ticks

Final Peak @ 149’26 – 1346 (44 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 149’12 – 1421 (79 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.15 climbed greatly from last month while the bid to cover ratio remained at 2.4. This caused the bonds to rally 7 ticks in about 14 sec to cross the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 149’07 with no slippage. Look to exit at 149’11 just above the S1 Mid Pivot with 4 ticks where it hovered. After that it reversed 4 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA before stepping higher for a final peak of 14 more ticks in 41 min. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 35 min to the S1 Mid Pivot.