7/9/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.14/2.5
Actual: 3.08/2.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 152’10 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 151’28 – 1302:20 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 152’03 – 1308 (7 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 151’18 – 1326 (25 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 151’26 – 1330 (29 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month as the bid to cover also dropped. This caused the bonds to spike short for 14 ticks in about 70 sec as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 152’05 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to drop and trickle down to hover around 151’29 to allow about 8 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 7 ticks in 5 min to the S3 Mid Pivot / 13 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 18 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 4 min to the 13 SMA.

8/27/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.02/2.5
Actual: 1.93/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 156’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 156’14 – 1301:44 (1 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 157’03 – 1349 (47 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 156’17 – 1449 (107 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.93 fell moderately from last month while the bid to cover ratio stayed the same. This caused the bonds to rise 8 ticks in about 52 sec after crossing the 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 156’08 with no slippage. It peaked and hovered without reversing, then continued to climb another 21 ticks in 47 min to the HOD as it used the 13/20 SMAs as support. Then it reversed 18 ticks in 1 hr to the 200 SMA.

8/13/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.08/2.2
Actual: 2.88/2.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 157’31 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 157’15 – 1301:45 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 157’31 – 1314 (13 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 157’22 – 1320 (19 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 158’10 – 1353 (52 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 late. The highest yield fell substantially from last month as the bid to cover ticked up. This caused the bonds to spike short for 16 ticks at 1301:38 as it started on the S2 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD in 7 sec. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket you would have filled short at 157’26 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to drop to hover around 157’16 to allow about up to 10 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 16 ticks in 12 min back to the origin before pulling back 9 ticks in 6 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 33 min as it crossed the S1 Pivot / OOD.

10/7/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.24/2.7
Actual: 2.07/2.6
INDECISIVE
Started @ 157’16 (1301)
1st Peak @ 157’11 – 1301:34 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 157’19 – 1301:48 (1 min)
8 ticks

Pullback to 157’11 – 1311 (10 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 157’20 – 1324 (23 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 157’13 (short)
Slippage: 1 ticks
Best Initial Exit: Stopped @ 157’16 – 3 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 157’09 (above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Rare whipsaw on a usually reliable safe report.

12/9/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.30/2.6
Actual: 2.23/2.6
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 155’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 154’27 – 1303:23 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 155’21 – 1313 (12 min)
26 ticks

Continued Reversal to 155’25 – 1334 (33 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 155’04 – 1353 (52 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 155’03 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 154’28 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 154’30 (below the 20 SMA)

Notes: Initial reaction fell against the uptrend causing a big reversal.