11/12/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.91/2.5
Actual: 3.07/2.4
INDECISIVE
Started @ 152’27 (1301)
1st Peak @ 152’16 – 1301:33 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 153’06 – 1302:02 (1 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 152’29 – 1303 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 153’05 – 1310 (9 min)
8 ticks

Expected Fill: 152’21 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: Stopped @ 152’26 – 5 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 152’18 (above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Rare whipsaw on a usually reliable safe report. The swings afterward are expected and tradeable after a whipsaw.

9/24/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.93/2.5
Actual: 1.81/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 157’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 157’10 – 1303:03 (2 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 157’04 – 1313 (12 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 157’14 – 1327 (26 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 157’02 – 1353 (52 min)
12 ticks

Expected Fill: 157’08 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 157’10 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 157’12 (4 ticks) – move lower to 157’10

Notes: None.

11/25/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1131 EST)
Previous: 1.89/2.5
Actual: 2.01/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 155’04 (1131)
1st Peak @ 155’13 – 1131:37 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 155’06 – 1132:05 (1 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 155’20 – 1212 (41 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 155’12 – 1239 (68 min)
12 ticks

Expected Fill: 155’06 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 155’10 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 155’10 (4 ticks)

Notes: Early release due to Thanksgiving holiday routine.

1/13/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.23/2.6
Actual: 2.09/2.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 157’21 (1301)
1st Peak @ 157’27 – 1301:39 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 157’23 – 1304 (3 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 157’30 – 1308 (7 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 157’19 – 1319 (18 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 157’23 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 157’26 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 157’28 (on the HOD)

Notes: Spike was quick and fell just short of the HOD. This would have allowed up to 3 ticks immediately with a profit target, or up to 6 ticks after 6 min as the reversal would not have gone below the fill point.

1/30/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.39/2.5
Actual: 2.19/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’01 (1301)
1st Peak @ 133’05 – 1303 (2 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 133’02 – 1305 (4 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 133’07 – 1308 (7 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 133’01 – 1330 (30 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.19 fell back a bit after a high of 2.39 in December now that tapering has started. This caused a typical slow but safe move that would have yielded 1-2 ticks initially as it eclipsed the PP Pivot. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 133’03 with no slippage late in the :02 bar then given you 1-2 ticks of profit on the :03 bar. After a small reversal, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in the next 5 min. If you decide to wait for a 2nd peak or have a secondary profit target, an exit at 133’06 or 07 would have been available. After that it reversed for 6 ticks back to the origin 23 min later, crossing the 50 SMA and reaching the 200 SMA.