ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.9.2014

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Jan 112014
 

ZB 03-14 (1 Min)  1_9_2014

1/9/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.90/2.4
Actual: 3.90/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 129’00 (1301)
1st Peak @ 129’06 – 1303 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 129’10 – 1310 (9 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 129’04 – 1337 (36 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose stayed the same from last month but the bid to cover ratio was slightly higher signifying greater demand. This caused the bonds to rally for 6 ticks as it started just above the R1 Pivot and crossed the 200 SMA and R2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 129’02 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to capture about 3-4 ticks if you were patient. With the R2 Pivot at 129’05, a target there or 1 tick higher would have been ideal. It continued to rise for 4 more ticks in the next 7 min, then it reversed for 6 ticks back to the 50 SMA and R2 Pivot in the next 27 min.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.8.2014

 10y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.8.2014
Jan 112014
 

ZB 03-14 (1 Min)  1_8_2014

1/8/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.82/2.6
Actual: 3.01/2.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 128’15 (1301)
1st Peak @ 128’11 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 128’18 – 1307 (6 min)
7 ticks

Extended Reversal to 128’22 – 1359 (58 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose above 3.00 for the first time since May 2011. This caused the ZB to fall for a meager 4 ticks in 1 bar as it hit the S3 Pivot, then retreat back to where it started in a dull reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 128’12 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover within 1 tick on either side of the fill point late in the :02 bar and into the :03 bar. Look to exit at breakeven or 1 tick loss.  As is common in dull reactions on the 10-y, it reversed for 7 ticks to cross the 100 SMA and hit the S3 Mid Pivot, then fell again in an attempt for a 2nd peak that fell short by 1 tick of reaching the S3 Pivot. Then it rose for an 11 tick extended reversal just before the 1400 hour when the FOMC minutes were released.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 12.12.2013

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Dec 202013
 

ZB 03-14 (1 Min)  12_12_2013

12/12/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.81/2.2
Actual: 3.90/2.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 129’09 (1301)
1st Peak @ 129’03 – 1306 (5 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 129’13 – 1317 (16 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose slightly from last month but, continuing the high rise since May as the talk of tapering of QE3 continues to take its toll. This caused the bonds to fall for 6 ticks, in a delayed reaction as it crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the LOD / S1 Pivot in 5 bars. With JOBB you would have filled short at 129’06 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 1-2 ticks as it hovered below the 200/100 SMAs. After reaching the LOD, it was unable to penetrate, so the reversal took over for 10 ticks in the next 10 min. It climbed to reach the S1 Mid Pivot, then backed off and traded sideways.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 12.11.2013

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Dec 202013
 

ZB 03-14 (1 Min)  12_11_2013

12/11/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.75/2.7
Actual: 2.82/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 130’00 (1301)
1st Peak @ 129’24 – 1305 (4 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 129’30 – 1311 (10 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 129’15 – 1411 (70 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 129’20 – 1433 (92 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose moderately since last month. This caused the ZB to fall for 8 ticks in 4 bars as it contended with the 200 SMA, then reached the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 129’30 with no slippage, then seen it fall to struggle briefly with the 200 SMA, then break free for a few more. I would move the stop to 129’29 and place the target at 129’26. This would have given you 4 ticks with ease as the S1 Mid Pivot held. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 6 ticks in the next 6 min back to the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a slow developing 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next hour, crossing the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed for 5 ticks in about 20 min, back to the 50 SMA.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 11.14.2013

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Nov 252013
 

ZB 12-13 (1 Min)  11_14_2013

11/14/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.76/2.6
Actual: 3.81/2.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 132’20 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’11 – 1302 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 132’17 – 1320 (19 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’05 – 1354 (53 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 132’12 – 1413 (72 min)
7 ticks

Extended Reversal to 132’22 – 1529 (148 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose slightly from last month continuing the high rise since May as the talk of tapering of QE3 continues to take its toll. This caused the bonds to fall for 9 ticks as it started on the 200 SMA and R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 132’14 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture about 2 ticks at most on the initial burst. Given the rarity of 2nd peaks in the past few weeks, it would be safe to get out with a modest gain, and if you waited for the 2nd peak, the interpeak reversal would have taken you 3 ticks in the red as it hit the 50 SMA. After the reversal, it fell for 6 more ticks in about 30 min to reach the OOD. Then it commenced a slow developing reversal that achieved 7 ticks in 20 min, and 10 more ticks in about 80 min.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 11.13.2013

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Nov 242013
 

ZB 12-13 (1 Min)  11_13_2013

11/13/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.66/2.6
Actual: 2.75/2.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 131’28 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’00 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 131’26 – 1308 (7 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’01 – 1329 (28 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 131’28 – 1342 (41 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose off of the low last month. This caused the ZB to rally for a meager 4 ticks in 1 bar as it hit the HOD, then retreat back to where it started in a dull reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 131’29 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall shortly after 5 sec to hit the stop loss for a 3 tick hit. As is common in dull reactions on the 10-y, it reversed for 6 ticks to hit the 200 SMA, then rose again for a 2nd peak of 1 more tick 28 min after the initial results. Then it fell back to the 200 SMA briefly. Not much movement overall, but even with the dull reaction, it followed the trend of the past on the latter part of the reaction.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.30.2013

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Oct 312013
 

ZB 12-13 (1 Min)  10_30_2013

10/30/2013 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.06/2.5
Actual: 1.87/2.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 135’17 (1301)
1st Peak @ 135’20 – 1303 (2 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 135’16 – 1315 (14 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.87 fell back to levels from the mid-summer now that the delay of tapering of QE3 is much more likely. With the FED meeting results being posted in the next hour, this report saw little reaction. This caused a slow dull long spike of 3 ticks that peaked on the :03 bar. With JOBB, you would have seen the :02 bar expire without a move, so cancel the order. There was little movement after that as it never ventured more than 3 ticks on either side of the origin before the FED meeting results were released.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 9.26.2013

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Oct 312013
 

ZB 12-13 (1 Min)  9_26_2013

09/26/2013 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.22/2.4
Actual: 2.06/2.5
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’03 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’29 – 1302 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 133’07 – 1341 (40 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.06 fell quite a bit from last month. This caused a quick short spike of 6 ticks that bottomed 1 tick above the LOD within 5 sec, then hovered for about 2 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 133’01 with no slippage, then seen it hover with about 3 ticks of profit. With the tight trading range before the report and the LOD / S2 Mid Pivot just below the lowest point of the spike, look to exit on the :03 or :04 bars with 2-3 ticks. After the spike it retreated up to the SMAs and eventually broke through, reaching the S1 Mid Pivot 40 min later for 10 ticks.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 8.29.2013

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Oct 312013
 

ZB 12-13 (1 Min)  8_29_2013

08/29/2013 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.03/2.5
Actual: 2.22/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 131’10 (1301)
1st Peak @ 131’20 – 1306 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 131’16 – 1307 (6 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 131’27 – 1337 (36 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 131’18 – 1427 (86 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.22 rose quite a bit from last month. This caused a slow developing, but average size 9 tick long spike in 5 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 131’12 with no slippage, then seen it hover within 1 tick of the fill point for about 2 min. You could have exited within 1 tick of break even or if patient, exited with 5+ ticks on the :06 bar. After last month saw a dull reaction and the previous 2 months has larger quick reactions, this is a bit of an anomaly with the slow movement, but quite safe. After a quick 4 tick reversal, the 2nd peak achieved another 7 ticks in 30 min, as it rode the 13/20 SMAs upward and eclipsed the R2 Pivot. Then it gave back 9 ticks in the next 50 min, back to the 100 SMA and R2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.10.2013

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Oct 152013
 

ZB 12-13 (1 Min)  10_10_2013

10/10/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.82/2.4
Actual: 3.76/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 132’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’15 – 1302 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 132’10 – 1304 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’18 – 1307 (6 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 132’11 – 1312 (11 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 132’23 – 1409 (68 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 132’18 – 1450 (109 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell slightly from last month but still continued the high rise since May as the talk of tapering of QE3 continues to take its toll. Even though the last FED meeting did not result in scaling back the bond buying, the perception is for only a short delay. This caused the bonds to rally for 9 ticks, crossing no major SMAs and the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 132’12 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture about 2 ticks at most on the initial burst. Given the rarity of 2nd peaks in the past few weeks, it would be safe to get out with a modest gain. After the 1st peak, it stepped higher until a final peak of 17 ticks over an hour after the report, crossing the S2 Mid Pivot, then fell a modest 5 ticks and traded sideways just above the S2 Pivot.