FED Chairman Speeches | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.10.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 212013

5/10/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0930 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 94.20
1st Peak @ 94.09 – 0932 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 94.44 – 0950 (20 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.37 – 1054 (84 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 94.08 – 1115 (105 min)
71 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke before the Federal Reserve Bank’s 49th annual conference on Bank Structure and Competition in Chicago. He discussed and defended the FED policies in monitoring the financial system. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 94.15 with no slippage on the :31 bar. Then it fell for only 11 ticks as the :31-:33 bars found support at 94.09. With the market having trended lower about 70 ticks in the previous 30 min and near the LOD, be wary of hanging around for a larger short move. After all 3 bars could not penetrate 94.09 and the LOD was looming only 8 ticks lower, look to exit at about breakeven on or around the 20 SMA. After the peak, we saw a reversal of 35 ticks in 20 min. After it collided with the 100 SMA, it fell again for a 2nd peak of 83 ticks in the next hr. Then it reversed for 71 ticks in about 20 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.12.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 062013

4/12/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 90.95
1st Peak @ 91.17 – 1233 (3 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 90.86 – 1243 (13 min)
31 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke before the “Resilience and Rebuilding for Low-Income Communities” Conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve System Community Affairs Officers, in Washington DC. He did not discuss QE3, but spoke about low income housing and the housing market as a whole. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 91.00 with no slippage on the :02 bar. This is a case where the first bar would not have filled as it only moved 4 ticks on either side of the anchor point. Be patient and wait for the :02 bar. With the 50 and 200 SMAs looming above, watch the initial interaction and move the stop loss up to 1-2 ticks lower than the 200 SMA. When the bars after the :03 could not achieve a higher level and no bar was able to establish space above the 200 SMA, look to exit around 91.08 before it hits your stop loss. Then you would secure 3-8 ticks. The reversal reclaimed 31 ticks, eclipsing the 100 SMA in 10 min. Even though this was Friday afternoon news, it still was a safe opportunity and relatively tame.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.8.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 052013

4/8/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (1915 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 93.38
1st Peak @ 93.42 – 1916 (1 min)
4 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2013 Financial Markets Conference about the stress test results of the banks. Due to the time of day, narrowly into the thinly traded Asian market session, we saw a dull reaction with low volume. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled. In this case, after about 2 min, cancel the order. Even if you had left it on the chart, the long move at 1954 would have given you a small profit. We will not recommend FED Speeches after the pit close and out of the US trading session again.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.4.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 052013

4/4/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (1030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 93.22
1st Peak @ 93.41 – 1031 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 92.75 – 1041 (11 min)
66 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke about the financial and economic education at the Redefining Investment Strategy Education Conference in Dayton, via satellite. He did not discuss QE3, so there was not much to excite the market on this event. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 93.29 with 2 ticks of slippage. The market was already engaged in a short move, so it went against the grain and crossed the 100 SMA and found resistance at the 20 SMA. Since the market was in a downtrend and it was unable to close above the 20 SMA, move the stop up to the 100 SMA, then look to exit around 93.39. You would have taken 10 ticks or been stopped with 1 tick profit. The reversal continued with the downtrend nearly down to the LOD for 66 ticks. Then the market corrected back to the intersection of the 50 and 100 SMAs, before falling again.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.25.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 052013

3/25/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (1315 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 94.03
1st Peak @ 94.14 – 1316 (1 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.90 – 1424 (69 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 94.50 – 1530 (135 min)
40 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke about the monetary policy and global economy, strongly defending the dovish policies of easing and historically low interest rates. This caused a moderate weakening of the dollar and a corresponding rally in oil. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 94.10 with 2 ticks of slippage. It initially hit the R1 Pivot at 94.13, where the 1st peak terminated, then it kept climbing for the next hour or so for 87 total ticks, riding the 13 and 20 SMAs except for 1 dip near the end of the move to the 50 SMA. I chose to exit at the 100 SMA as I had to leave, but there were many better later exit points if you were patient, monitored the dollar, the SMAs, and the MACD. You could have exited around the :46 bar when it hit the 200 SMA or on the dip through the 20 SMA and MACD crossing around 1410. The market reversed for 40 ticks after the pit close culminating at 1530.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.15.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Nov 152012

11/15/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0820 HI time / 1320 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 84.88
1st Peak @ 85.13 – 0826 (6 min)
25 ticks

Reverse to 84.98 – 0828 (8 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 85.53 – 0852 (32 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 85.07 – 0908 (48 min)
46 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke about the challenges to the housing and mortgage markets. Mostly a glim outlook caused a moderate weakening of the dollar and a corresponding rally in oil. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 84.93 with no slippage. If you were patient, you could have exited on the :25 or :26 bars with 7-15 ticks. The market reversed for 15 ticks to close the gap to the 13 SMA , then rallied for a stepping final peak of 65 ticks 32 min after the speech started, nicking the 200 SMA. The reversal reclaimed 46 ticks, bottoming on the 100 SMA 16 min later. Then it chopped higher for a double top and more.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.01.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Oct 012012

10/1/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0630 HI time / 1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.50
Peak @ 92.21 – 0639 (9 min)
29 ticks

Reverse to 92.59 – 0647 (17 min)
38 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke was on the defense this time in response to the critics of QE3. He vigorously defended the action taken as necessary and helpful and denied that the FED was enabling bid deficits. After the :31 bar rose for a few ticks, the market fell into a methodical 29 tick dive over 8 bars to nearly hit a double bottom at the 92.20 area from almost an hour earlier. The small rise initially hit the 100 SMA and fell, slicing through the 50 SMA. With JOBB, if you had not cancelled the order, you would have filled at about 92.43 short with no slippage. After it encountered mild support at the 50 SMA, I would close out at about 92.28 on the :35 bar for about 15 ticks. The reversal basically reclaimed the drop, crossing the 100 and 50 SMAs in 8 min after the peak for 38 ticks. Then it repeated the cycle and seesawed on either side of the 50 and 100 SMAs on top of each other.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.31.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Aug 312012

8/31/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 95.93
Peak @ 96.14 – 0401 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reverse to 94.91 – 0408 (8 min)
123 ticks

Recover up to 96.04 – 0422 (22 min)
113 ticks

Notes: Factory Orders broke at the same time and resulted in the biggest rise in a year. This caused the the long spike of 21 ticks on the :01 bar. The spike crossed the 100 SMA and then hit resistance just below the R2 Pivot and 50 SMA causing it to bounce lower. As the speech was being delivered to the Economic symposium, the perception was initially hawkish as the dollar rallied and stimulus was downplayed. This caused the CL to selloff. Then after 10 min, the perception changed resulting in the dollar falling and oil rallying. If factory orders had not released at the same time, the market would have simply fallen for about 10 min, then rebounded without the long spike on the :01 bar. Nothing shocking to the market enough to cause a significant reaction. In this case the JOBB would not have filled after 10 sec, so cancel the order. If you did not cancel before you got filled, then move the stop in tightly and try to close with a small profit or loss (3-5 ticks).

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.06.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Aug 062012

8/6/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0300 HI time / 0900 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 91.11
Peak @ 91.02 / Retrace to 91.15 – 0401 (1 min)
-9 ticks / 4 ticks

Notes: Nothing shocking to the market enough to cause a significant reaction. In this case the JOBB would not have filled after 10 sec, so cancel the order. If you did not cancel before you got filled, then move the stop in tightly and try to close with a small profit or loss (3-5 ticks).

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.10.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 102012

5/10/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0330 HI time / 0930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE /REVERSE
Started @ 97.43
Peak @ 97.24 – 0333 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 97.48 – 0337 (7 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Small spike of 19 ticks that was achieved on the tail of the :33 candle to fight through the 50 SMA and R1 Pivot, but arrest before reaching the 100 SMA. Then the reversal gave back 24 ticks in a quick 4 min after the drop.

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