2/29/2012 FED Testimony (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE (into DOWNWARD FAN)
Started @ 107.09
1st Peak @ 107.23 – 0501 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reverse Peak 1 @ 106.70 – 0509 (9 min) Reverse Peak 3 @ 105.28 – 0552 (52 min)
53 ticks 195 ticks

Reverse Peak 2 @ 106.53 – 0520 (11 min) Reverse Final Peak @ 104.84 – 0633 (93 min)
29 ticks 237 ticks

Pullback Upward to 106.06 – 0716 (136 min)
122 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee. Caused a small spike, then reversed course, fought through all three major SMAs and fell precipitously until 0633 for 237 ticks. The downspike at 0531 and following reversal are due to the CL inventory report. After 0540 the inventory report had been forgotten and Bernanke was the focus again. Whatever he said at about 0545 caused a 130 tick drop in about 7 minutes. There was a retreat upward following lasting 18 min for nearly 100 ticks, but it could not clear the 50 SMA, and fell again over the next 20 min to its low point. Then the market pulled back upward.

2/2/2012 FED Testimony (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 97.03
1st Peak @ 97.25 – 0502 (2 min)
22 ticks

Reverse to 97.00 – 0506 (6 min)
25 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies before House Budget Committee on economic outlook and federal budget situation. Caused a moderate spike, and slightly larger reversal. The spike had to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs and peaked at at a double top from 0430, causing it to retreat from its peak. After the spike and reversal, the market was stuck straddling the 200 SMA seesawing up and down until 0529 when it broke out of the channel to drop to 96.86. Due to the double top at 97.25, and the retreat from hitting that value, I would consider getting out there.

7/21/2011 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 100.40
1st Peak @ 101.12 – 0406 (6 min)
72 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.32 – 0413 (13 min)
92 ticks

Reverse to 100.90 – 0420 (20 min)
42 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies before Senate Banking Committee on the implementation of the Dodd Frank Act. Caused a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and minimal reversal. After seeing the big green candle at 0413, I would close out on the 0414 as soon as it started retracing.

7/13/2011 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.14
1st Peak @ 98.54 – 0402 (2 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.68 – 0407 (7 min)
54 ticks

Reverse to 98.39 – 0411 (11 min)
29 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee. Caused a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and minimal reversal. After seeing the two candles 0407-8 hit the 200 SMA and retrace, I would close out at the 200 SMA. The typical influence of these reports runs out at 20-30 min, but in this case the oil inventory report follows at 0430 causing pre-report speculators to increase the volatility.