FOMC Statement | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 6.17.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jul 052015

6/17/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 149’29
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 149’18 – 1400:23 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 150’18 – 1401:10 (2 min)
)))32 ticks

)))Pullback to 149’27 – 1402:21 (3 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
Reversal to 151’02 – 1415 (15 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 150’03 – 1425 (25 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 151’05 – 1500 (60 min)
34 ticks

Pullback to 150’16 – 1514 (74 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 149’22 (just below the LOD) / 149’13 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 150’05 (just below the 200 SMA) / 150’13 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The FED deferred the option of a rate hike to September, but stated the economy was improving since the winter quarter. This caused the expected instability with an 11 tick short spike in 23 sec followed by the reversal. This would have filled the inner short entry at 8 sec. Then you would have seen it continue to fall another 4 ticks before reversing strongly for 32 ticks in about 45 sec to the S2 Mid Pivot. This would have allowed up to 26 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 23 ticks in about 70 sec to the 50 SMA before reversing 39 ticks in 12 min to the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it continued to swing as it fell 31 ticks in 10 min to the 3 major SMAs before reversing 34 ticks to nearly reach the PP Pivot in 35 min. Then it pulled back 21 ticks in 14 min after crossing the 50 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.29.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Aug 302015

7/29/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 154’03
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 154’12 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 154’07 – 1400:51 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Pullback to 154’14 – 1402:12 (3 min)
)))7 ticks
————
Reversal to 153’28 – 1405 (5 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 154’22 – 1433 (33 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 154’03 – 1527 (87 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 153’28 (just below the LOD) / 153’20 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 154’10 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 154’19 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The FED deferred the option of a rate hike to September or December, but stated the economy was continuing to improve since the winter quarter. This caused the expected instability with a 9 tick long spike in 29 sec followed by a 5 tick small reversal. This would have filled the inner short entry at 22 sec. Then you would have seen it continue to bounce around the fill point for about 2 min when it climbed to nearly reach the S1 Pivot before reversing 18 ticks to the LOD. The reversal took longer than normal to materialize, but patience for the true reversal would have paid off allowing up to 14 ticks to be captured after about 5 min. After that it hovered between the LOD and S2 Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 28 min after eclipsing the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 19 ticks in 54 min back to the origin.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 9.17.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jan 052016

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 9_17_2015 ZB 12-15 (Second) 9_17_2015

9/17/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 152’12
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 152’27 – 1400:11 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 152’05 – 1401:18 (2 min)
)))-22 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 153’10 – 1407 (7 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 152’23 – 1408 (8 min)
19 ticks

Final Peak @ 153’15 – 1440 (40 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 152’29 – 1501 (61 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 151’31 (in between the OOD / LOD)
Short entry – 152’26 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 152’26 (Short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 152’05 – 21 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 152’10 (in between the 50 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: FOMC decided to wait to raise rates again. The short entry would have filled if 152’26 or lower. Otherwise, notice the hovering above the R2 Mid Pivot for 15 sec and manually move the order lower 2-3 ticks for a fill.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10.28.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jan 052016

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10_28_2015

10/28/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 157’21 – shift 3 ticks lower to 157’18
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 157’08 – 1400:18 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 157’23 – 1401:49 (2 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Pullback to 157’11 – 1404 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 157’25 – 1405 (5 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 157’12 – 1411 (11 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 158’07 – 1431 (31 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 157’10 (in between the LOD / S3 Pivot) / 157’03 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 157’26 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 158’04 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 157’10 (inner long tier)
Best Initial Exit: 157’22 – 12 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 157’21 (on the 200 SMA)

Notes: As expected FOMC decided to wait to raise rates again to December. The inner long entry would have filled nicely then reversed to allow up to 12 ticks.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12.16.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jan 052016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12_16_2015 ZB 03-16 (Second) 12_16_2015

12/16/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 154’06
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 153’28 – 1400:00 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 154’10 – 1400:12 (1 min)
)))14 ticks

)))Pullback to 153’19 – 1400:30 (1 min)
)))-23 ticks

)))Reversal to 154’17 – 1402:04 (3 min)
)))30 ticks

)))Pullback to 154’05 – 1402:26 (3 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
Reversal to 154’25 – 1404 (4 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 154’05 – 1407 (7 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 155’12 – 1431 (31 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 153’29 – 1537 (97 min)
47 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 153’22 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 154’261 (just above the PP Pivot)

Expected Fill: 153’22 (inner long tier)
Best Initial Exit: 154’16 – 26 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 154’06 (just above the SMAs) and 154’21 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: As expected FOMC rose interest rates 25BP. This caused the a perfect setup with a nice reversal after the long entry filled for about 15 ticks quickly and another 10 with patience. Many swings followed for other trades as it rode the 13 SMA support higher then reversed after about 30 min.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.27.2016

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Feb 082016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_27_2016

1/27/2016 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 159’08
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 159’03 – 1400:57 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 159’16 – 1402:42 (3 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Pullback to 159’09 – 1404 (4 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 159’31 – 1411 (11 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 159’20 – 1423 (23 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 159’00 (just above the LOD) / 158’24 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 157’26 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 158’04 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Well, first dull move to not breach the inner tier since last January. It was advisable to cancel the trade on the slow movement and inability to breakout. It fell only 5 ticks in about a minute to eclipse the S2 Pivot, then rallied after that for 10 min to the PP Pivot. Then it fell to the S1 Pivot and 20 SMA.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.29.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Feb 162014

1/29/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 133’00 (1400)
1st Peak @ 132’25 – 1401 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 133’02 – 1401 (1 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’22 – 1405 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 133’14 – 1423 (23 min)
24 ticks

Extended Reversal to 133’24 – 1515 (75 min)
34 ticks

Notes: The FED chose to continue tapering QE3 by $10B as expected down to $65B a month, saying they will continue to monitor the economy and labor sectors while also saying they do not want to be seen as reacting to every gyration in financial markets. This caused an indecisive scenario that resulted in 8-10 tick swings in the first bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 132’26 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it reverse to stop you out with a 5 tick loss with no slippage. Now that we are in the phase of tapering and the FED will not be shocking the market too much, we will probably shift this to a trap trade in the future short term. The next 3 bars continued to swing between the SMAs and the R1 Pivot, before it achieved a minor 2nd peak of 3 more ticks. Then it reversed for a choppy 24 ticks in the next 18 min to the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it pulled back and extended the reversal for another 10 ticks in the next 50 min, crossing the R3 Pivot.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.30.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Dec 272013

10/30/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 135’14 (1400)
Fake Spike @ 135’22 -1401 (1 min)
8 ticks

1st Peak @ 134’28 – 1402 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 135’09 – 1407 (7 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’19 – 1428 (28 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 135’02 – 1504 (64 min)
15 ticks

Notes: After the surprise last month, the FED again chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy and delay tapering saying it needs to see more evidence that the economy will continue to improve. Similar to June, this caused a fake spike long for 8 ticks, followed by the true short move of 18 ticks from the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 135’17, then seen it peak with 5 ticks of profit 9 sec into the bar before reversing. If you were familiar with this report, you should have been able to exit near break even when it failed to move more than 8 ticks as this is a precursor for a reversal. In this case it fell for another 18 ticks into the :02 bar to reach the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed 13 ticks back to the 13 SMA. In this situation, after a correcting reversal, look to sell the near the PP Pivot and snag about 8-10 ticks as it heads for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks to nearly reach the S2 Pivot at the bottom of the hour. After that it reversed for 15 ticks back to the S1 Mid Pivot about 30 min later.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 9.18.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Dec 272013

9/18/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 130’05 (1400)
1st Peak @ 131’23 – 1402 (2 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 130’27 – 1405 (5 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’15 – 1504 (64 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 131’25 – 1556 (116 min)
22 ticks

Notes: To the surprise of all, the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy and delay tapering despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions. This caused a very large long spike of 50 ticks that crossed the 50/100 SMAs and nearly reached the R4 Mid Pivot in 2 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 130’16 with 6 ticks of slippage then seen it shoot to the moon as the market had priced in tapering. Do not be in a big hurry to exit in this situation. Use the R3 Pivot or above for a good exit of at least 25 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed 28 ticks to the R2 Pivot to correct after such a large move. In this situation, after a big correction, look to buy the dip and snag about 10 ticks. After chopping sideways between the R2 Pivot and R3 Pivot for about 45 min, it rose for a 2nd peak of 24 ticks above the 1st peak, crossing the R4 Pivot. Then it backed off and gave back 22 ticks to the R4 Mid Pivot before heading sideways into the close.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.31.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Dec 272013

7/31/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE (UPWARD FAN)
Started @ 133’03 (1400)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 133’11 – 1400:19 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 133’03 – 1401:25 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 133’16 – 1403:20 (4 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 133’03 – 1407:03 (8 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 134’13 – 1531 (91 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 134’06 – 1545 (105 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions, but reiterated previous comments about tapering off the bond buying later in the year. This caused an initial long move that nearly reached the S2 Pivot for 8 ticks, then a return to the origin. It repeated the cycle before developing into an upward fan for the long term reaction. A Trap Trade with 6-8 ticks offset would use the S3 Mid Pivot at 133’02 as the anchor point, then go with 133’08 – 133’10 for the short entry and 132’28 – 132’26 for the long entry. The initial burst long would have filled the short entry easily, then see the reversal give at least 4 ticks if you targeted the 100 SMA. Later opportunities to buy low and sell high were available, as it achieved a 2nd peak, then fell to the origin one more time. Then it rode the 13/20 SMAs for nearly an hour and a half as it eclipsed the R1 Pivot for 42 ticks. Then we saw a reversal of 7 ticks in the next 14 min.

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