6/19/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 139’04 (1400)
Premature Spike @ 139’14 – 1401 (1 min)
10 ticks

1st Peak @ 138’22 – 1401 (1 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 137’21 – 1455 (55 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 138’04 – 1503 (63 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions, but reiterated previous comments about tapering off the bond buying later in the year. This caused an initial long move that hit the PP Pivot and quickly reversed and turned into a downward fan as the demand for bonds was seen to be waning with QE3 being threatened to scale back. JOBB is not recommended for this report, but a short entry would have been advisable on the long retracement on the 1403 bar. Use the 50 SMA as the trail stop and/or look to exit after a sizeable 10+ tick move in a few min. It hit a climactic peak at 1455 just above the S3 Pivot for 49 ticks, then reversed for 15 ticks in 8 min. Since this was after the pit close and late in the trading day, additional trades would be discouraged, but it kept testing the LOD and then trended lower as volume and price action dried up.

10/24/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 85.77 (0815)
1st Peak @ 85.49 – 0818 (3 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 85.97 – 0819 (4 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions. This caused both the CL and the DX to seesaw over several minutes between the 200 SMA on the low end, and the S1 Pivot on the high end. This would have been an ideal report for a trap trade with a span of about 40 ticks. Notice how the volume dried up and the range tightened as the pit closed at 0830, 15 min after the report released.

8/1/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 88.88 (0813)
1st Peak @ 87.92 – 0815 (2 min)
96 ticks

Reversal to 89.26 – 0824 (11 min)
134 ticks

Notes: Report released 2 min early, but the FED largely continued their theme of inaction, leaving current policy unchanged and not hinting at new policy changes in the future saying “wait until the fall”. This caused a large short spike of nearly 100 ticks slicing through the PP Pivot as the dollar rallied, having priced in easing action by the FED, but not getting any. The bears could not sustain the selling as nearly 60 ticks were left on the tail of the :15 bar. After chopping sideways for 5 min, the market rallied to peak at 134 ticks on the reversal on the :24 bar, corresponding to a correction from the rally on the dollar. The reversal was restrained by crossing all 3 major SMAs.

3/13/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 106.86 (0815)
1st Peak @ 106.72 – 0816 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 107.18 – 0821 (6 min)
46 ticks (2x top)

2nd Peak @ 106.62 – 0829 (14 min)
24 ticks

Then continued alternating reversal / peak until 0940

Notes: Report released on time, but the FED largely “voted present” leaving all aspects of current policy unchanged and not hinting at new policy changes in the future. No allusion to QE-3 (either taking it off the table or describing it as a future necessity) was made. This caused a long term roller coaster in the market with no discernible positive or negative trend. The first 10 minutes after the release were volatile with large alternating red and green candles of large magnitude and long wicks/tails. After seeing watching the news at the time of the release and seeing the market reaction, I would stay out of this report. The only safe thing.