FOMC Statement | JO Bracket Breakout

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12/13/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0915 HI time / 1415 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.10 (0913)
1st Peak @ 100.41 – 0926 (13 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 101.01 – 0931 (18 min)
60 ticks (2x top)

2nd Peak @ 100.43 – 0941 (28 min)
67 ticks

Notes: *Report broke 2 min early at 0823. Report was not biased positive or negative as the FED reported the US economy is expanding moderately and left their policy unchanged. Again, DO NOT USE JOBB due to uncertain release time. After seeing the 0914 candle I would get in short on the 0915 candle after it retraced up at about 101.00. After seeing it cross the 100 SMA, the 200 SMA and the long wicks on the 0924 -0926 candles I would get out on the 0928 candle at the latest when it went above 100.65. Even then, after revering upwards it came right back down to almost the same level, then seesawed for the next hour.

11/2/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0630 HI time / 1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN (with initial spike)
Started @ 94.00 (0632)
1st Peak @ 93.29 – 0636 (4 min)
71 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.45 – 0725 (53 min)
155 ticks

Reverse to 93.47 – 0748 (36 min) / 80.66 – 0920 (61 min)

Notes: *Report broke 2 min late at 0632. Report mildly disappointed in continuing “Operation Twist” in an attempt to lower long term interest rates to initiate more borrowing, but most doubt it will have any effect. Market was in a FIST prior to report release. After seeing the long tail on the 0633 candle and the 0635 candle start below the 100 / 200 SMAs with no pullback, I would get in going short below the 50 SMA. I would set my stop loss about 10 ticks above the 100 / 200 SMA anticipating a retrace and 2nd fall. I would consider closing on the 0711 candle, but after seeing the long wick, it should continue down again (MACD also did not really cross yet). Then I would close on the 0724 candle after seeing the double bottom.

9/21/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.46 (0823)
1st Peak @ 86.41 – 0827 (4 min) (after spike up 34 ticks on 0824 Candle)
105 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.01 – 0837 (14 min)
145 ticks

Reversal to 86.99 – 0907 (44 min)
98 ticks (2x top)

Notes: *Report broke 8 min late at 0823. Report mildly disappointed in establishing “Operation Twist” in an attempt to lower long term interest rates to initiate more borrowing, but most doubt it will have any effect. Again, DO NOT USE JOBB due to uncertain release time. Notice the 0817 and 0818 candles where traders jump the gun anticipating. Then the 0824 candle spiked up 34 ticks before falling 23, a 57 tick swing. I would watch the 0825 candle seeing it decisively red, then jump in short on the 0826 in the 87.12 area with a 15 tick stop loss. I would get out at 0838 or 0843 after seeing the tails on a 2nd peak.

8/9/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN (with initial spike)
Started @ 81.96 (0819)
1st Peak @ 79.49 – 0824 (5 min)
247 ticks

2nd Peak @ 78.86 – 0846 (27 min)
310 ticks

Reverse to 79.97 – 0855 (36 min) / 80.66 – 0920 (61 min)

Notes: *Report broke 4 min late at 0819. Report was underperforming overall as Bernanke pledged to keep interest rates low to 2013, and 3 FOMC members dissented, the highest # since 1992. A Downward Fan was already in progress (note the unchanged slope of the 50 / 100 / 200 SMAs before and after the report release except for the blip from the pre-report spike. DO NOT USE JOBB for this as it can break up to 10 min early or late. Keep an eye on the news and jump in after the announcement in the direction the market is heading. Low point occurred 27 min after report release.

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