FED Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10.28.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jan 052016

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10_28_2015

10/28/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 157’21 – shift 3 ticks lower to 157’18
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 157’08 – 1400:18 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 157’23 – 1401:49 (2 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Pullback to 157’11 – 1404 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 157’25 – 1405 (5 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 157’12 – 1411 (11 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 158’07 – 1431 (31 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 157’10 (in between the LOD / S3 Pivot) / 157’03 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 157’26 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 158’04 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 157’10 (inner long tier)
Best Initial Exit: 157’22 – 12 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 157’21 (on the 200 SMA)

Notes: As expected FOMC decided to wait to raise rates again to December. The inner long entry would have filled nicely then reversed to allow up to 12 ticks.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12.16.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jan 052016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12_16_2015 ZB 03-16 (Second) 12_16_2015

12/16/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 154’06
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 153’28 – 1400:00 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 154’10 – 1400:12 (1 min)
)))14 ticks

)))Pullback to 153’19 – 1400:30 (1 min)
)))-23 ticks

)))Reversal to 154’17 – 1402:04 (3 min)
)))30 ticks

)))Pullback to 154’05 – 1402:26 (3 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
Reversal to 154’25 – 1404 (4 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 154’05 – 1407 (7 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 155’12 – 1431 (31 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 153’29 – 1537 (97 min)
47 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 153’22 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 154’261 (just above the PP Pivot)

Expected Fill: 153’22 (inner long tier)
Best Initial Exit: 154’16 – 26 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 154’06 (just above the SMAs) and 154’21 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: As expected FOMC rose interest rates 25BP. This caused the a perfect setup with a nice reversal after the long entry filled for about 15 ticks quickly and another 10 with patience. Many swings followed for other trades as it rode the 13 SMA support higher then reversed after about 30 min.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.6.2016

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jan 132016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_6_2016

1/6/2016 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 155’12
————
Trap Trade:
)))No move – 1401 (1 min)
)))2 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 155’08 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 155’04 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 155’16 (just above the 100 / 50 SMAs) / 155’20 (just above the HOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Surprising dull move after the first rate hike in several years.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.27.2016

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Feb 082016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_27_2016

1/27/2016 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 159’08
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 159’03 – 1400:57 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 159’16 – 1402:42 (3 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Pullback to 159’09 – 1404 (4 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 159’31 – 1411 (11 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 159’20 – 1423 (23 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 159’00 (just above the LOD) / 158’24 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 157’26 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 158’04 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Well, first dull move to not breach the inner tier since last January. It was advisable to cancel the trade on the slow movement and inability to breakout. It fell only 5 ticks in about a minute to eclipse the S2 Pivot, then rallied after that for 10 min to the PP Pivot. Then it fell to the S1 Pivot and 20 SMA.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.11.2014

FED Testimony Comments Off

Feb 282014

2/11/2014 FED Chairman Yellen Testimony (0830 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’07
1st Peak @ 132’25 – 0832 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 133’05 – 0850 (20 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’22 – 0947 (77 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 132’30 – 1053 (143 min)
8 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Yellen testified on the semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. The headline was that the FED was going to stay the course and continue on the pace of tapering QE3 to the tune of $10B per meeting. This was not a certainty after several weak reports had been released the week prior (ISM and NFP to name a few). This caused the bonds to weaken and spike short for 14 ticks on 2 bars, crossing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reaching the S2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 133’03 with 1 tick of slippage on the :31 bar. Then it fell for another 10 ticks slowly as it briefly stalled on the S1 Pivot, but deliberately without much of a pullback. You could have captured about 9 ticks with ease. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 20 min, hitting the S1 Mid Pivot and all 3 major SMAs. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks, eclipsing the S2 Pivot about an hour later. The final reversal reclaimed 8 ticks as it reached the S2 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.29.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Feb 162014

1/29/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 133’00 (1400)
1st Peak @ 132’25 – 1401 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 133’02 – 1401 (1 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’22 – 1405 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 133’14 – 1423 (23 min)
24 ticks

Extended Reversal to 133’24 – 1515 (75 min)
34 ticks

Notes: The FED chose to continue tapering QE3 by $10B as expected down to $65B a month, saying they will continue to monitor the economy and labor sectors while also saying they do not want to be seen as reacting to every gyration in financial markets. This caused an indecisive scenario that resulted in 8-10 tick swings in the first bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 132’26 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it reverse to stop you out with a 5 tick loss with no slippage. Now that we are in the phase of tapering and the FED will not be shocking the market too much, we will probably shift this to a trap trade in the future short term. The next 3 bars continued to swing between the SMAs and the R1 Pivot, before it achieved a minor 2nd peak of 3 more ticks. Then it reversed for a choppy 24 ticks in the next 18 min to the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it pulled back and extended the reversal for another 10 ticks in the next 50 min, crossing the R3 Pivot.

CL 02-14 (1 Min) 1.15.2014

Beige Book Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/15/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION (No Fill)
Started @ 94.40
1st Peak @ 94.53 – 1405 (5 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 94.14 – 1430 (30 min)
39 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace during the reporting period of late November through the end of the year. Nine Districts reported moderate growth rates in economic activity as during the previous reporting period, while modest growth was reported in the Philadelphia and Boston districts, and Kansas City reported no change. The DX had minimal movement, and mostly chopped sideways. This resulted in only a 4 tick move in the first two bars, so cancel the order with no fill. If you had used JOBB and not cancelled, it would have filled on the :03 bar, then given a handful of ticks on the :05 bar as it briefly broke out above the 100/50 SMAs. After that a long and slow developing reversal yielded 39 ticks as it crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R3 Pivot as the pit closed. Then volume and price action dried up as it pulled back up.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.8.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jan 112014

1/8/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 128’20
1st Peak @ 128’14 – 1401 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 128’21 – 1422 (22 min)
7 ticks

Extended Reversal to 128’27 – 1507 (67 min)
13 ticks

Notes: After the FED finally commenced scaling back QE3 last month by $10B a month, they announced their intention to continue scaling back at a modest pace while monitoring the employment and inflation picture. This caused the bonds to fall only 6 ticks, as the minutes were unsurprising. With JOBB you would have filled short at 128’17 with 1 tick of slippage. Since it was a tame move and had to contend with all 3 major SMAs, move the stop to -2 ticks and set a target at 2 ticks. The 2 tick target would have filled later in the :01 bar. After the peak, it continued to oscillate around the SMAs within a span of only 5 ticks before it eventually reversed for 7 ticks, just above the origin on the :22 bar. After that it achieved an extended reversal of 6 more ticks as it crossed the S2 Pivot 45 min later.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.30.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Dec 272013

10/30/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 135’14 (1400)
Fake Spike @ 135’22 -1401 (1 min)
8 ticks

1st Peak @ 134’28 – 1402 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 135’09 – 1407 (7 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’19 – 1428 (28 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 135’02 – 1504 (64 min)
15 ticks

Notes: After the surprise last month, the FED again chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy and delay tapering saying it needs to see more evidence that the economy will continue to improve. Similar to June, this caused a fake spike long for 8 ticks, followed by the true short move of 18 ticks from the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 135’17, then seen it peak with 5 ticks of profit 9 sec into the bar before reversing. If you were familiar with this report, you should have been able to exit near break even when it failed to move more than 8 ticks as this is a precursor for a reversal. In this case it fell for another 18 ticks into the :02 bar to reach the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed 13 ticks back to the 13 SMA. In this situation, after a correcting reversal, look to sell the near the PP Pivot and snag about 8-10 ticks as it heads for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks to nearly reach the S2 Pivot at the bottom of the hour. After that it reversed for 15 ticks back to the S1 Mid Pivot about 30 min later.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 9.18.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Dec 272013

9/18/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 130’05 (1400)
1st Peak @ 131’23 – 1402 (2 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 130’27 – 1405 (5 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’15 – 1504 (64 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 131’25 – 1556 (116 min)
22 ticks

Notes: To the surprise of all, the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy and delay tapering despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions. This caused a very large long spike of 50 ticks that crossed the 50/100 SMAs and nearly reached the R4 Mid Pivot in 2 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 130’16 with 6 ticks of slippage then seen it shoot to the moon as the market had priced in tapering. Do not be in a big hurry to exit in this situation. Use the R3 Pivot or above for a good exit of at least 25 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed 28 ticks to the R2 Pivot to correct after such a large move. In this situation, after a big correction, look to buy the dip and snag about 10 ticks. After chopping sideways between the R2 Pivot and R3 Pivot for about 45 min, it rose for a 2nd peak of 24 ticks above the 1st peak, crossing the R4 Pivot. Then it backed off and gave back 22 ticks to the R4 Mid Pivot before heading sideways into the close.

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