FED Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.29.12

Beige Book Comments Off

Aug 292012

8/29/2012 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.32
1st Peak @ 95.38 – 0803 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 95.25 – 0805/0808 (5/8 min)
13 ticks (2x bottom)

2nd Peak @ 95.66 – 0822 (22 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 95.33 – 0911/0914 (71/74 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report was modestly positive overall showing gradual growth in most sectors, with slowing growth in a few others. This caused a muted reaction overall. The market was in a choppy pattern heading upward before the report broke, so it continued in that pattern to nearly reach the S1 Pivot at 95.66. Then the prospect of QE3 was dampened as the report was digested to be just positive enough to make it less necessary. So the dollar rallied, and the CL fell to the level at the origin of the report . Not a recommended report for JOBB, but the initial behavior would have been a dull reaction and cause for canceling the order.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.06.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Aug 062012

8/6/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0300 HI time / 0900 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 91.11
Peak @ 91.02 / Retrace to 91.15 – 0401 (1 min)
-9 ticks / 4 ticks

Notes: Nothing shocking to the market enough to cause a significant reaction. In this case the JOBB would not have filled after 10 sec, so cancel the order. If you did not cancel before you got filled, then move the stop in tightly and try to close with a small profit or loss (3-5 ticks).

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.01.12

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Aug 012012

8/1/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 88.88 (0813)
1st Peak @ 87.92 – 0815 (2 min)
96 ticks

Reversal to 89.26 – 0824 (11 min)
134 ticks

Notes: Report released 2 min early, but the FED largely continued their theme of inaction, leaving current policy unchanged and not hinting at new policy changes in the future saying “wait until the fall”. This caused a large short spike of nearly 100 ticks slicing through the PP Pivot as the dollar rallied, having priced in easing action by the FED, but not getting any. The bears could not sustain the selling as nearly 60 ticks were left on the tail of the :15 bar. After chopping sideways for 5 min, the market rallied to peak at 134 ticks on the reversal on the :24 bar, corresponding to a correction from the rally on the dollar. The reversal was restrained by crossing all 3 major SMAs.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12

Beige Book Comments Off

Jul 182012

7/18/2012 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 90.07
1st Peak@ 90.26 – 0804 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 90.00 – 0812 (12 min)
26 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: Report was satisfactory and tame overall showing modest to moderate growth in most sectors, with slowing growth in a few others. This caused a muted reaction overall. Since the market was in a choppy pattern before the report broke, it continued in to exhibit the same behavior with little impetus to deviate. At the release it continued its rise from the low of 89.84 before the report to achieve a peak of 19 ticks at 90.26 on the :04 bar, crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it fell to 90.00, crossing the R1 Pivot, the 50 SMA, and bouncing off of the 100 SMA. Then it chopped sideways for 2 hrs between the R1 Pivot and the 200 SMA until it climbed above the R1 Pivot late in the trading day. Not a great setup for JOBB, it would have the appearance of a dull report, barely filling and failing to launch. Still it would have been good for a handful of ticks. The long wicks and tails signal lack of conviction and heavy HFT influence.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12

FED Testimony Comments Off

Jul 182012

7/18/2012 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 89.67
Peak @ 89.46 – 0401 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reverse to 89.79 – 0406 (6 min)
35 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee (day 2). Do not trade day 2 with JOBB. In this case, most of the air was let out of the balloon on the previous day testimony before the Senate Banking Committee and nothing surprising transpired in the Q & A. The span of :00 to :07 bars was a replay of what happened the day before on a much smaller scale. After the :08 bar, it traded sideways staying afloat on the 50 SMA until the oil inventory report took over to influence the market.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.17.12

FED Testimony Comments Off

Jul 172012

7/17/2012 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 89.21
1st Peak @ 88.92 – 0401 (1 min)
29 ticks

Final Peak @ 87.71 – 0443 (43 min)
150 ticks

Reverse to 89.76 – 0731 (211 min)
205 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee. Chmn Bernanke initially reported that the FED would not interject any new stimulus, the economy is in a poor state of health, and nothing the FED could do would help the situation. As the markets had already priced in some stimulus action from the FED, the dollar rallied strongly causing the oil to crash. Then at :45 min after the report, during the Q & A session, Bernanke stated that stimulus was not off the table and may be implemented in the near future. This caused the Hopium to return, reversing the trend of the first 45 min to cause the dollar to crasch and oil to rally for the next 2 hrs and 45 min. With JOBB, the first bar spike of 29 ticks would have easily generated a profit. It crossed the 200 SMA, but everything else was above the price action. If you stayed in, the next bar was unable to close above the 200 SMA, then you could exit at either the :22 area where it crossed the 20 or at the :46 bar after the sustained drop then support encountered at the 87.80 level. The reversal claimed over 200 ticks in almost 3 hrs, encountering moderate resistance at each SMA, then eventually climbing above the R1 Pivot to peak just below 90.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.20.12

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jun 202012

6/20/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0630 HI time / 1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 82.29 (0632)
1st Peak @ 81.55 – 0634 (2 min)
74 ticks

Reverse to 82.18 – 0635 (3 min)
63 ticks

2nd Peak @ 81.43 – 0641 (9 min)
86 ticks

Reverse to 82.90 – 0709 (37 min)
147 ticks

Notes: *Report broke 2 min late at 0632. Report mildly disappointed in that the FOMC expanded “Operation Twist” in an attempt to lower long term interest rates to initiate more borrowing, but the markets were pricing in and hoping for more stimulus. The dollar rallied initially causing the dip in oil, then it sold off sharply in the following 30 min accounting for the strong reversal. If you are looking to place a trade, do not use JOBB, but manual entries are okay if you follow a news feed and keep a close eye on how the DX index reacts. With the rally on the dollar, keep an eye on it until it starts to turn. When it does, buy the dip on oil in the 81.70 area at about 0645. Then stay in until the DX turns or oil crosses the 13 and 20 at about 0718. Another good place to exit is when you see it eclipse the 200 SMA, then retreat back to it.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.07.12

FED Testimony Comments Off

Jun 072012

6/7/2012 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE, then DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 86.69
1st Peak @ 86.85 / Retrace to 86.37 – 0401 (1 min)
16 ticks / -32 ticks

Final Peak @ 84.57 – 0531 (91 min)
212 ticks

Reverse to 85.36 – 0551 (111 min)
79 ticks (2x top)

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee. Indecisive at first would have gotten you in long then retraced short and hit the stop loss. When Chaiman Bernanke made it clear that QE3 would not be inserted, the market reacted bearishly, selling off methodically for the next 90 min. The movement was not clear initially, however when it penetrated the 200 SMA, then came back up to bounce off of it as resistance, that would be a good place to enter a short trade on the :28 or :29 bar. The double bottom at 85.31 at about 1 hr after the testimony started would be a good exit for nearly 100 ticks.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.06.12

Beige Book Comments Off

Jun 062012

6/6/2012 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 85.14
1st Peak@ 84.93 – 0810 (10 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.75 – 0827 (27 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 85.23 – 0838 (38 min)
48 ticks (4x top)

Notes: Report was satisfactory overall showing moderate growth in most sectors, with modest or slowing growth in a few others. This caused a muted reaction overall. Since the market was in a downtrend before the report broke, it continued in that prevailing direction. At the release it closed the gap long up to the 13 SMA, but could not get any higher. Then it went sideways and fell. After bottoming out on the :27 bar, it reversed upward for 48 ticks then chopped sideways. With nothing overly positive or negative to solidify expectations of QE or other easing, the markets were tame. Not a good setup for JOBB, and no clear direction after 5 min.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.10.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 102012

5/10/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0330 HI time / 0930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE /REVERSE
Started @ 97.43
Peak @ 97.24 – 0333 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 97.48 – 0337 (7 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Small spike of 19 ticks that was achieved on the tail of the :33 candle to fight through the 50 SMA and R1 Pivot, but arrest before reaching the 100 SMA. Then the reversal gave back 24 ticks in a quick 4 min after the drop.

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