-060712.jpg "Click to enlarge")
6/7/2012 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE, then DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 86.69
1st Peak @ 86.85 / Retrace to 86.37 – 0401 (1 min)
16 ticks / -32 ticks
Final Peak @ 84.57 – 0531 (91 min)
212 ticks
Reverse to 85.36 – 0551 (111 min)
79 ticks (2x top)
Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee. Indecisive at first would have gotten you in long then retraced short and hit the stop loss. When Chaiman Bernanke made it clear that QE3 would not be inserted, the market reacted bearishly, selling off methodically for the next 90 min. The movement was not clear initially, however when it penetrated the 200 SMA, then came back up to bounce off of it as resistance, that would be a good place to enter a short trade on the :28 or :29 bar. The double bottom at 85.31 at about 1 hr after the testimony started would be a good exit for nearly 100 ticks.