3/30/2016 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 195K
Actual: 200K
Previous revision: -9K to 205K
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 10090.5
1st Bar Span:
10093.5 to 10090.0 – 0831 (1 min)
+6 ticks / -1 tick
Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a
Notes: Matching report caused no reaction, so cancel the report after 10 sec.
3/2/2016 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 185K
Actual: 214K
Previous revision: -12K to 193K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 9745.0
1st Peak @ 9763.0 – 0815:26 (1 min)
36 ticks
Reversal to 9745.0 – 0818 (3 min)
36 ticks
Pullback to 9760.5 – 0821 (6 min)
31 ticks
Reversal to 9724.5 – 0833 (18 min)
72 ticks
Expected Fill: 9750.0 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9762.5 – 25 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9760.0 (30 ticks and above the 50 SMA)
Notes: Nice stable spike peaked after 26 sec, then reversed after hovering above the 50 SMA. Look to exit on the hovering before seeing profit slip away. No 2nd peak, but still a decent pullback to the 50 SMA followed by a reversal.
2/3/2016 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 193K
Actual: 057K
Previous revision: +10K to 267K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9473.0
1st Peak @ 9498.5 – 0816:09 (2 min)
51 ticks
Reversal to 9455.0 – 0826 (11 min)
87 ticks
Final Peak @ 9574.0 – 0923 (68 min)
202 ticks
Reversal to 9346.0 – 1031 (136 min)
456 ticks
Expected Fill: 9476.5 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 9497.0 – 41 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9493.0 (35 ticks)
Notes: Large moves spanning over 2 hrs after the report.
3/5/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 159K
Actual: 139K
Previous revision: -48K to 127K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’06
1st Peak @ 132’13 – 0817 (2 min)
7 ticks
Reversal to 132’05 – 0825 (10 min)
8 ticks
Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast by 20K jobs along with a large 48K downward revision to the previous report. This caused a smaller long reaction that started on the 50 SMA and crossed the 100/200 SMAs, the OOD, and collided with the S1 Mid Pivot for 7 ticks on the : bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 132’10 with 1 tick slippage, then seen it hover between the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot. The prudent exit would have been at 132’12 with 2 ticks on the S1 Mid Pivot after seeing the hovering. After the :01 bar, it continued to hover above the 200 SMA for 5 more min before falling back to the origin on the reversal on the next 3 bars.
4/2/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 192K
Actual: 191K
Previous revision: +39K to 178K
DULL REACTION (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 132’12
1st Peak @ 132’16 – 0815:09 (1 min)
4 ticks
Reversal to 132’10 – 0815:51 (1 min)
-6 ticks
Notes: Report matched the forecast with a large 39K upward revision to the previous report. This caused a delayed long spike of 4 ticks followed by an immediate reversal of 3 ticks as it crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot, then another 3 ticks later in the bar to the LOD. If you were listening to talking forex, you would have heard the matching results announced and had ample opportunity to cancel the trade in 9 sec before the impulse happened. With JOBB uncanceled, you would have filled long at about 132’15 with no slippage, then seen it fall and hover at about -2 ticks. Look to exit there before a bigger loss would have happened later. After the reversal to the LOD, it turned into a down trend that sustained for about 3 hrs due to other factors.
4/30/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 203K
Actual: 220K
Previous revision: +18K to 209K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.0009753 (shifted lower due to late bar movement)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009743 – 0815:01 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks
)))Reversal to 0.009752 – 0815:26 (1 min)
)))9 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009756 – 0826 (11 min)
13 ticks
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009744 (on the LOD / S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009733 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009763 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.009772 (just above the R2 Pivot)
Notes: Report came in modestly better than the forecast by 17k jobs causing a quick short spike of 10 ticks that crossed the OOD, LOD, and S1 Mid Pivot. That would have reached the inner long order with 1 tick to spare. As it reversed for 9 ticks in the next 25 sec and was flirting with the PP Pivot, look to exit with about 7 ticks. After that it continued to trend upward for a few more ticks as it used the PP Pivot for support. Ensure you are out of the trade before 0829 when the Advance GDP report is about to break.
6/4/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 217K
Actual: 179K
Previous revision: -5K to 215K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.0009743 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009759 – 0815:27 (1 min)
)))16 ticks
)))Reversal to 0.009750 – 0817:08 (3 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.009762 – 0849 (34 min)
19 ticks
Reversal to 0.009738 – 1015 (120 min)
24 ticks
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009734 (No SMA / Pivot nearby) / 0.009725 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009753 (on the OOD / S1 Pivot) / 0.009761 (just above the PP Pivot)
Notes: Report came in strongly worse than the forecast by 38k jobs causing a quick long spike of 14 ticks that crossed the OOD, S1 Mid Pivot, and HOD. Then it backed off a few ticks and peaked for 2 more ticks in the middle of the bar. That would have filled the inner tier short order with a tick or 2 of positive slippage at about 0.009754. It mostly hovered near the fill point as the S1 Mid Pivot was there and took longer than a few sec to reverse due to the strongly biased report. As it reversed for 9 ticks in the next 2 min it stalled just above the 13 SMA. An exit there would have yielded 3-4 ticks as you move the stop to breakeven if waiting for it to drop further. After that it rose for a final peak of 3 more ticks that crossed the PP Pivot before falling 24 ticks to the S2 Pivot in the next 90 min.
7/2/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 207K
Actual: 281K
Previous revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.0009856 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009833 – 0815:00 (1 min)
)))-23 ticks
)))Reversal to 0.009844 – 0815:26 (1 min)
)))11 ticks
————
Continued reversal to 0.009849 – 0818 (3 min)
16 ticks
Double Bottom to 0.009833 – 0846 (16 min)
16 ticks
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009846 (on the OOD) / 0.009837 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009866 (on the HOD) / 0.009876 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)
Notes: Report came in strongly better than the forecast by 74k jobs causing a quick short spike of 23 ticks that crossed the OOD, S3 Mid Pivot, and extended the LOD. Then it retreated 11 ticks in only 26 sec to the S2 Pivot. That would have filled the inner and outer tier long orders with about 4 ticks excess making your average entry about 0.009841. Look to exit where it hovered at about 9844 for about 6 total ticks on 2 fills. It continued to reverse for 5 more ticks early on the 3rd bar, but due to the biased report, waiting for more ticks would not be wise in this case. This proved correct as it fell for a double bottom 13 min later then remained near the LOD for over an hour until it dropped again.
7/30/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 234K
Actual: 218K
Previous revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009778 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009786 – 0815:06 (1 min)
)))8 ticks
)))Reversal to 0.009780 – 0815:48 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
Double Top @ 0.009786 – 0820 (5 min)
6 ticks
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009768 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.009758 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009787 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.009798 (just below the PP Pivot)
Notes: Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by 16k jobs causing a quick and unsustainable long spike of 8 ticks that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it retreated 6 ticks in 42 sec to nearly reach the S2 Pivot. That would have just missed the inner short entry by 1 tick, unless you had it below the S1 Pivot in which case you would have an opportunity to capture about 5 ticks in the middle of the :16 bar. After the reversal, it achieved a double top in 4 min, then stalled around the 200 SMA as the Advance GDP report was released at 0830.
9/4/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 218K
Actual: 204K
Previous revision: -6K to 212K
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009510 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009516 – 0815:21 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
)))Hovered near 0.009516 for 1 min
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009529 – 0820 (5 min)
19 ticks
Reversal to 0.009524 – 0821 (6 min)
5 ticks
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009502 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.009492 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009520 (on the 50 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009530 (on the 200 SMA/ S1 Mid Pivot)
Notes: Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by 14k jobs causing a tame slow reaction overall that yielded 6 ticks long in 21 sec, then hovered around the 20 SMA for about 1 min without reversing. That would have missed the inner short entry by 4 ticks, making it an easy decision to cancel the order. We see the guidelines would have avoided a losing setup for the trap trade as a gradual rise is not going to work out. It continued to climb for another 13 ticks in the next 4 min to the 200 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot. Then it backed off 5 ticks and traded sideways into the unemployment claims and trade balance reports.