9/5/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 175K
Actual: 176K
Previous revision: -2K to 198K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 129’11
1st Peak @ 129’24 – 0816 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 129’00 – 0816 (1 min)
-24 ticks

Settled @ 129’15 – 0816 (1 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report was nearly a perfect match to the forecast, almost like lightning striking in the same place twice. We have not had another report result within 10K of the forecast in multiple years. This served to cause a natural indecisive reaction as a report with so much magnitude 2 weeks before a monumental FED decision. It rallied long to hit the S1 Mid Pivot, then immediately crashed 24 ticks to just above the S3 Mid Pivot, then pulled back to settle 4 ticks above the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 129’17 with 3 ticks of slippage, then the stop would have filled at about 129’09 with 3 ticks of slippage for an 8 tick loss. After the wild :16 bar, it rallied up to 129’18 at the S1 Pivot, then fell to chop sideways inside of the SMAs leading up to the unemployment claims at 0830. This reaction does not raise the Risk rating of this report by any means due to the cause of the indecision, and the very low probability of the situation repeating.

7/3/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 161K
Actual: 188K
Previous revision: -1K to 134K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010062
1st Peak @ 0.010030 – 0816 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.010048 – 0817 (2 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010026 – 0833 (18 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.010045 – 0849 (34 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive showing 27k more jobs created than expected along with a negligible downward revision of 1k jobs causing an average 32 tick short spike on the :16 bar that crossed the 100/200 SMAs and R2 Pivot on its path. It left 6 ticks on the wick naked as the reversal from the 1st peak low began late on the :16 bar and culminated on the :17 bar for 18 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.010054 with 4 ticks of slippage, then look to exit just below the 200 SMA at about 0.010037 when it was hovering for about 17 ticks. After the :17 bar, it fell and chopped sideways mostly below the 200 SMA and eventually achieved a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks on the :33 bar. Then it reversed slowly for 19 ticks in about 16 min back to the 50 SMA.

5/1/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 154K
Actual: 119K
Previous revision: -27K to 237K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010284
1st Peak @ 0.010298 – 0816 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.010286 – 0819 (4 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010310 – 0826 (11 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.010277 – 0857 (42 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately negative showing 35k less jobs created than expected along with a fairly strong downward revision of 27k jobs causing a relatively small 14 tick long spike on the :16 bar that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot near the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.010288 with no slippage, then look to exit at about 0.010296 with 8 ticks as it hovered near the top of the bar. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in 3 min, then it achieved a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks, eclipsing the R1 Pivot and extending the HOD. Given the small 1st peak for the result, a 2nd peak is almost expected. After that it reversed for 43 ticks back to the 100 SMA in the next 30 min.

3/6/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 172K
Actual: 198K
Previous revision: +23K to 215K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010705
1st Peak @ 0.010678 – 0816 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.010701 – 0854 (39 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive showing 26k more jobs created than expected along with a fairly strong upward revision of 23k jobs causing a 27 tick short spike on the :16 bar that started in the middle of all 3 major SMAs and bottomed on the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.010701 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit with about 15 ticks as it hovered a few ticks above the bottom. After the peak and a failed attempt at a 2nd peak, it reversed for 23 ticks in 39 min, hitting the 200 SMA. After that it drifted lower.

1/3/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 134K
Actual: 215K
Previous revision: +30K to 148K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.011508
1st Peak @ 0.011485 – 0816 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.011531 – 0916 (61 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly positive showing 81k more jobs created than expected  along with an upward correction of 30k jobs on the previous report resulting in a 23 tick spike on the :16 bar. It started on the 200 SMA then bottomed on the PP Pivot and reversed quickly leaving 10 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.011503 with 2 ticks of slippage, then look to exit just above the PP Pivot where it hovered briefly for about 15 ticks. After reversing quickly on the :18 bar, it made a failed attempt at a 2nd peak, then reversed for a total of 46 ticks in about an hr to the R3 Mid Pivot.