12/5/2012 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 129K
Actual: 118K
Previous revision: -1K to 157K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.012177
1st Peak @ 0.012172 – 0818 (3 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.012188 – 0906 (51 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report was slightly negative showing 11k less jobs created than expected resulting in a dull reaction of only 5 ticks over 3 bars as it hit the 100 / 50 SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.012174 with no slippage. Recognizing the nearly matching results and the dull Impulse with strong support, look to exit at breakeven +/-1 tick. It traded sideways in a tight range for the next 30 min, then achieved a reversal of 16 ticks, crossing the S2 Pivot.

3/7/2012 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0315 HI time / 0815 EST)
Forecast: 204K
Actual:216K
Previous Revision: +3K to 173K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 105.13 (before premature spike)
Peak @ 105.20 / Retrace to 105.09 – 0316 (1 min)
7 ticks / -4 ticks

Notes: Report slightly exceeded forecast, with a negligible previous report revision. The 0315 candle spiked up at the end 7 ticks before reversing for 11 ticks. If using JOBB, your order would not have filled long due to the fast movement and slippage. Close out the order after it did not fill.

1/5/2012 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0315 HI time / 0815 EST)
Forecast: 176K
Actual:325K
Previous Revision: -2K to 204k
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 103.46
1st Peak @ 103.71 – 0316 (1 min)
25 ticks

Retrace to 103.31 – 0318 (3 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report greatly exceeded forecast, as previous report revised barely downward. 0316 candle crossed the PP line by 10 ticks and then held most of its gains. Still this is about as much as an ADP report will deliver…close out above the PP. Reversal erased all the gains back to the 50 SMA. This is pretty remarkable given such a positive report. Volatility continued until 0340 or so also sue to the unemployment claims released at 0330.

11/2/2011 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0215 HI time / 0815 EDT)
Forecast: 102K
Actual:110K
Previous Revision:+25K to 116k
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 94.06
1st Peak @ 94.40 – 0218 (3 min)
34 ticks

Retrace to 94.13 – 0222 (7 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast, and previous report revised largely upward. Strong 3 candle rise aided by previously occurring FAN. Given the FAN and the positive initial reaction, I would wait and let the trade play out. When the 0219 candle retraces more than 5 ticks, that is a good place to get out since the upward movement is terminating, yielding to the reversal. Notice the reversal dropped to the bottom of the trend line that the FAN had established.

8/11/2011 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0215 HI time / 0815 EDT)
Forecast: 102K
Actual:91K
Previous Revision: -5K to 109k
Spike / retrace
Started @ 88.91
1st Peak @ 88.81 – 0216 (1 min)
10 ticks

Retrace to 89.07 – 0219 (4 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast, and previous report revised slightly downward. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long at about 88.91 since the position of the market was 88.76 5 sec before the report broke. The reaction would have been tame going up 2-3 ticks, then back down to 10 ticks of heat. Then the 0217 candle spiked upward to just above the 50 SMA. I would close out on that spike with about 10 ticks of profit at about 89.01.