6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.29.2016

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Apr 242016
 

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3_29_2016

3/29/2016 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 93.9
Actual: 96.2
Previous revision: +1.8 to 94.0
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.008836
1st Peak @ 0.008833 – 1000:29 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008838 – 1003 (3 min)
5 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Dull reaction but no move from the origin of 2 ticks or more until about 30 sec after the release. This would have been an easy decision to cancel the trade. After that it continued to remain between the S1 and S1 Mid Pivot for 25 min showing no impulse from the news.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.23.2016

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Mar 182016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_23_2016

2/23/2016 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 97.4
Actual: 92.2
Previous revision: -0.3 to 97.8
DULL FILL
Started @ 0.008910
1st Peak @ 0.008914 – 1000:05 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 0.008908 – 1002 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008929 – 1020 (20 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.008920 – 1028 (28 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008913 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008914 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008918 (just above the 100 SMA)

Notes: Reaction was surprisingly dull possibly due to the R1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA on top of the origin. You would have been faced with an exit at breakeven after the fill. Then it piddled around on the R1 Mid Pivot for 5 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks as it eclipsed the R3 Pivot.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.25.2014

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Mar 112014
 

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2_25_2014

2/25/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 80.2
Actual: 78.1
Previous revision: -1.3 to 79.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009794
1st Peak @ 0.009808 – 1001 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009784 – 1026 (26 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a small margin of 2.1 points. This caused a 14 tick long spike on the :01 bar that was tame but unsustained, as it started on the R3 Pivot after a 23 tick rally in the last 25 min and crossed the R4 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.009799 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hit 0.009808 before chopping between 0.009797 and 0.009805 up to 53 sec into the :01 bar. Look to exit with 5-6 ticks just above the R4 Mid Pivot. Due to the overbought condition and the strong resistance of the R4 Mid Pivot, it reversed quickly and steadily over the next 25 min, crossing the 50 SMA and the R3 Mid Pivot for 24 ticks. Then it chopped sideways for the better part of an hour.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.29.2014

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May 182014
 

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4_29_2014

4/29/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 82.9
Actual: 82.3
Previous revision: +1.6 to 83.9
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 0.009744
1st Peak @ 0.009747 – 1000:16 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.009740 – 1003 (3 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a small margin of 0.6 points. This caused a 3 tick long bump on the :01 bar after 16 sec that was tame, but shortly sustained as it reached the S1 Pivot. With JOBB you should have cancelled the order after 10 sec, or after the move was too small to reach the bracket. It reversed for 7 ticks to be 4 ticks short of the initial position as it crossed the 100 SMA and nearly reached the 200 SMA. Then it rallied for 18 ticks in the next 25 min most likely due to other market dynamics.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.27.2014

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Jun 032014
 

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5_27_2014

5/27/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 83.2
Actual: 83.0
Previous revision: -0.6 to 81.7
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 0.009808
1st Bar Movement: 0.009807 to 0.009810
3 ticks

Notes: Report basically matched the forecast with a small downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a dull reaction with only 3 tick span of movement on the :01 bar and 2 ticks from the anchor point. It rose to hit the S2 Mid Pivot and then retreated. Cancel the order after no fill within 10 sec and with the near match on the forecast.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.29.2014

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Aug 162014
 

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7_29_2014

7/29/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 85.5
Actual: 90.9
Previous revision: +1.2 to 86.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009805
1st Peak @ 0.009799 – 1000:05 (1 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009796 – 1016 (16 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009800 – 1034 (34 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with a moderate upward revision to the previous reading. This caused a short reaction of only 6 ticks that started on the 50 / 200 SMAs and fell to cross the 100 SMA and S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.009801 with no slippage then allowed an exit of 1-2 ticks as it hovered near the bottom of the bar. Then it traded sideways for 6 min before falling 3 more ticks for a 2nd peak to the S3 Pivot. Then it reversed 4 ticks to the 50 SMA after another 18 min. Overall not much volatility here, but these are the dog days of summer.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.26.2014

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Sep 042014
 

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8_26_2014

8/26/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 89.1
Actual: 92.4
Previous revision: -0.6 to 90.3
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009627
1st Peak @ 0.009622 – 1000:00 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.009627 – 1003 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009616 – 1011 (11 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009622 – 1029 (29 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a moderate downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a short reaction of only 5 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and fell to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs and R1 Pivot. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.009623 with no slippage then allowed an exit at Breakeven as it hovered for almost the entire :01 bar. After a reversal to the origin 2 min later, it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks to cross the PP Pivot in 8 min. Then it reversed for 6 ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot 18 min later.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 9.30.2014

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Oct 142014
 

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 9_30_2014

9/30/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 92.2
Actual: 86.0
Previous revision: +1.0 to 93.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009124
1st Peak @ 0.009132 – 1000:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009120 – 1017 (17 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009137 – 1034 (34 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.009118 – 1108 (68 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a healthy margin with a moderate upward revision to the previous reading. This caused a relatively muted long reaction of 8 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 20 SMA and S1 Pivot. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.009128 with no slippage then allowed an exit at about 0.009131 for 3 ticks where it hovered late in the :01 bar on the S1 Pivot. After the peak it reversed for 12 ticks in 17 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA and S2 Pivot. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks after 17 min. After that it fell 19 ticks to the S2 Pivot in the next 34 min.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.28.2014

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Nov 162014
 

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10_28_2014

10/28/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 87.4
Actual: 94.5
Previous revision: +3.0 to 89.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009267
1st Peak @ 0.009253 – 1000:01 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009258 – 1002 (2 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009250 – 1006 (6 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009265 – 1022 (22 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a healthy margin with a large upward revision to the previous reading. This caused a large short reaction of 14 ticks that started just below the S2 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the 200 SMA and S2 Pivot. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.009161 with 3 ticks of slippage then allowed an exit at about 0.009254 for 7 ticks where it hovered for most of the bar. After the peak it reversed for 5 ticks on the :02 bar then fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks, just short of the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in 16 min to the 50/200 SMAs.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.25.2014

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Dec 282014
 

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11_25_2014

11/25/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 95.9
Actual: 88.7
Previous revision: -0.4 to 94.1
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008477
1st Peak @ 0.008490 – 1000:06 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008471 – 1017 (17 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report strongly missed the forecast by a healthy margin with a small downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a large long reaction of 13 ticks that started just above the R2 Pivot and rose to cross the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.008483 with 3 ticks of slippage then allowed an exit at about 0.008488 for 5 ticks where it hovered for 14 sec just above the R3 Mid Pivot. After the peak it reversed for 19 ticks in 17 min to the 100/200 SMAs.

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