4/28/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 102.6
Actual: 95.2
Previous revision: +0.1 to 101.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008407
1st Peak @ 0.008417 – 1001:07 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008410 – 1001:48 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.008423 – 1007 (7 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008413 – 1048 (48 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a healthy margin of 7.4 pts with a negligible upward revision to the previous reading. This caused a long move of 10 ticks that climbed 9 ticks immediately then hovered to snag 1 more tick later. It started just below the 200 SMA and rose to cross the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.008411 with 1 tick of slippage then allowed an exit with 3-4 ticks as it hovered just above the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks after peaking in the :02 bar. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 5 min to extend the HOD before reversing 10 ticks in 41 min to reach the R1 Mid Pivot.

6/30/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 97.1
Actual: 101.4
Previous revision: -0.8 to 94.6
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.008184
Whipsaw between 0.008196 and 0.008176 – 1000:01 (1 min)
20 ticks span

Pullback to 0.008193 – 1016 (16 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008185 – 1025 (25 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a 4.3 point delta offset by a modest downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a whipsaw that spanned 20 ticks in 1 sec. This would have filled your long entry then fallen to stop you out with 10 ticks including 2 ticks of slippage. This was due to the impact of the Greek default and wide gap between both sides. After the whipsaw, it pulled back 9 ticks in 15 min before reversing 8 ticks in 9 min. Note that it also had a quick spike and retreat 17 min before the report.

8/25/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 92.8
Actual: 101.5
Previous revision: +0.1 to 91.0
SPIKE / REVERSE – TRIPWIRE TO CANCEL
Started @ 0.008355
1st Peak @ 0.008366 – 1000:38 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008355 – 1000:58 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 0.008364 – 1002 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008343 – 1017 (17 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a 8.7 point delta with a negligible upward revision to the previous reading. We saw a premature whipsaw short 43 sec before the release to be a tripwire to cancel the order. Then The reaction caused a long move of 11 ticks that started just below the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 13 /20 SMAs in 38 sec then reversed later in the bar back to the origin. Then it pulled back 9 ticks in 1 min before reversing 21 ticks in 15 min to the 200 SMA.

10/27/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 102.5
Actual: 97.6
Previous revision: -0.4 to 102.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008311
1st Peak @ 0.008317 – 1000:21 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008311 – 1001:06 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008318 – 1003 (3 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008311 – 1008 (8 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008319 – 1020 (20 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008306 – 1106 (66 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008314 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008316 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008318 (just above the 50 SMA)

Notes: Small reaction was constrained by all 3 major SMAs to only yield 6 ticks. Then it cycled twice to claim another tick or 2 on a peak, then reversed to the R2 Pivot.

1/26/2016 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 96.6
Actual: 98.1
Previous revision: -0.2 to 96.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008453
1st Peak @ 0.008446 – 1000:51 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008452 – 1003 (3 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008438 – 1018 (18 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.008454 – 1058 (28 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008450 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008446 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008446 (just below the PP Pivot and 50/100 SMAs)

Notes: Reaction was constrained by several layers of support, so keep the profit target small and notice the hovering around the 50/100 SMAs and the PP Pivot. After a reversal back to the 200 SMA, it stepped lower for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks to the LOD. Then it wrestled to get above the PP Pivot for a reversal to the R1 Mid Pivot.