CB Consumer Confidence | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.28.2014

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Feb 122014

1/28/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 78.3
Actual: 80.7
Previous revision: -0.6 to 77.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009731
1st Peak @ 0.009720 – 1001 (1 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009710 – 1004 (4 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.009724 – 1029 (29 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a small margin of 2.4 points. This caused a 11 tick short spike on the :01 bar that was tame and sustained, as it started on the falling 13 SMA, and ran out of momentum just before reaching the 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.009725 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall a few more sticks and stall at about +4 ticks. With the 200 SMA looming lower, you would be safe to grab a few ticks and exit at about 0.009721. Without much of a reversal, it continued lower for another 10 ticks on the next 3 bars, crossing the 200 SMA and the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed for 14 ticks in the next 25 min, as it reached the 50 SMA.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 11.26.2013

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Nov 292013

11/26/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 72.2
Actual: 70.4
Previous revision: +1.2 to 72.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009842
1st Peak @ 0.009852 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009864 – 1010 (10 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.009856 – 1013 (13 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a small margin of about 2 points. This caused a 10 tick long spike on the :01 bar that was tame and sustained, as it crossed the 50/100 SMAs, the PP Pivot, and the OOD. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.009846 with no slippage, then seen it pop up and hover near the 100 SMA. Look to exit around 0.009851 with 5 ticks on the 100 SMA. After the spike, it continued to rise slowly without reversing for 12 more ticks in the next 9 min, crossing the 200 SMA and the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 8 ticks in 3 min back to the 200 SMA. After that it traded sideways between the 200 SMA and the R1 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 10.29.2013

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Nov 062013

10/29/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 75.2
Actual: 71.2
Previous revision: +0.5 to 80.2
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010214
1st Peak @ 0.010227 – 1001 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.010210 – 1016 (16 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a large margin. This caused a 13 tick long spike on the :01 bar that was unsustainable, as it crossed the 200 SMA and S2 / S2 Mid Pivots. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.010222 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up and fall instantly. Look to exit around 0.010220 with a 2 tick loss as it hovered on the 200 SMA. After the spike, it continued to chop between the 100 and 200 SMAs as it eventually achieved 17 ticks on the reversal to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it bounced off the pivot and conquered the 200 SMA.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 9.24.2013

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Nov 062013

9/24/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 79.9
Actual: 79.7
Previous revision: +0.3 to 81.8
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.010133
1st Peak @ 0.010136 – 1001 (1 min)
3 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.010144 – 1006 (6 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.010133 – 1011 (11 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report narrowly missed the forecast but was effectively matching. The narrow offset caused a muted dull response of only 3 ticks on the :01 bar. With JOBB you would not have seen an impulse move to fill an order within 10-15 sec, so cancel the order. After achieving 3 ticks, it continued to slowly climb for 8 more ticks in the next 5 min. Then it reversed for 11 ticks. After that, volatility and price action increased due to other circumstances.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.30.2013

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Nov 062013

7/30/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 81.1
Actual: 80.3
Previous revision: +0.8 to 82.1
DULL REACTION
Started @ 134’12
1st Peak @ 134’14 – 1003 (3 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 134’10 – 1006 (6 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report fell slightly short of the forecast but remained at a high level. The narrow offset caused a muted dull response of only 2 ticks achieved in 3 min. With JOBB you would not have seen an impulse move to fill an order within 10 sec or the :01 and :02 bars, so cancel the order. After achieving 2 ticks which may or may not be due to the news, it matched the HOD and fell for 4 ticks in the next 3 bars. Then it continued to fall slowly for the next 3 hrs.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.27.2013

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Nov 062013

8/27/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 79.6
Actual: 81.5
Previous revision: +0.7 to 81.0
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010267
1st Peak @ 0.010256 – 1001 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.010268 – 1004 (4 min)
12 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010294 – 1029 (29 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a moderate margin and matched the highest reading in many years that was recorded in June. This caused a 11 tick short spike on the :01 bar that could not reach the 200 SMA / R1 Pivot area. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.010262 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall quickly, retreat to about 4 ticks in the red, then fall and hover around 0.010258. Look to exit there for 3-5 ticks. After the spike, it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 3 bars back to the 13 SMA. Then it chopped sideways for about 12 min before continuing to rally for an extended reversal of 38 ticks in about 15 min. Then it backed off and traded sideways.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 6.25.2013

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Jul 192013

6/25/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 75.2
Actual: 81.4
Previous revision: -1.9 to 74.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’21
1st Peak @ 134’11 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 133’31 – 1020 (20 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 134’17 – 1110 (70 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin and again saw the highest reading in many years. This report was scheduled at the same time as New Home Sales which came in very bullish too. The New Home sales came in a few sec before this report causing a bit of a pullback after the fill. With JOBB you would have filled short at 134’19 with no slippage, then a 4 tick stop would have been hit, but a 5 tick stop would have ridden out the pullback. Then the :01 bar eclipsed the PP Pivot for 10 ticks and pulled back about 5 ticks. Then it conquered the PP Pivot after 3 min and achieved a 2nd peak for 12 more ticks in 20 min, eclipsing the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it slowly reversed for 18 ticks back to the PP Pivot and 100 SMA about 50 min later.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 5.28.2013

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Jun 082013

5/28/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 70.7
Actual: 76.2
Previous revision: +0.9 to 69.0
INDECISIVE
Started @ 95.55
1st Peak @ 95.63 – 1001 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 95.37 – 1001 (1 min)
-26 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin and saw the highest reading since 2008, but caused a strange reaction across the entire market. Normally this would have caused a long sustainable move, but it popped up for 8 ticks to hit the 50 SMA, then quickly reversed for 26 ticks to eclipse the 100 SMA. The market conditions were already bizarre with equity markets rallying substantially for market highs in the 20 min prior to the report and the first day after a 3 day weekend. With JOBB you would have filled long at 95.60 with about 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped with a 10 tick loss. Normally this report is a tame mover and yields a moderate amount of ticks, so the underlying market conditions are to blame here.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4.30.13

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May 082013

4/30/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 61.4
Actual: 68.1
Previous revision: +2.2 to 61.9
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 93.75
1st Peak @ 93.87 – 1001 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 93.30 – 1028 (28 min)
57 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin but was caught in very bearish sentiment causing a muted 12 tick spike that was against the grain. It ran into the 13 SMA and the S1 Mid Pivot arresting the long move. With JOBB you would have filled long at 93.81 with about 1 tick of slippage. Given the conditions and that it was just barely above the threshold of a dull report, move your stop loss up to near Breakeven and try to exit with a few ticks on the profit side or minimize the loss with the tight stop loss. The reversal continued the bearish trend for 57 ticks, bottoming in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots. Then it corrected a bit upward.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.26.13

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Apr 202013

3/26/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 67.9
Actual: 59.7
Previous revision: -1.6 to 68.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.77
1st Peak @ 95.57 – 1004 (4 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 95.71 – 1008 (8 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.31 – 1023 (23 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 95.64 – 1032 (32 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report strongly disappointed falling well short of the forecast and caused a short reaction of 20 ticks culminating on the :03 bar. It probably would have achieved a bigger spike if not for all the support barriers crossed. It struggled with the 50 SMA on the :01 bar, then the R1 Pivot and the 100 SMA on the next 2 bars. With JOBB you would have filled short at 95.69 with 3 ticks of slippage. I moved my stop to break even and 1 tick above the 50 SMA after it was struggling to go lower and got nicked for no gain on the wick of the :02 bar. Then the next bar would have given another 7 tick drop allowing 10 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 14 ticks in 4 min, before dropping for a big 2nd peak of 46 total ticks in the next 15 min. After that, the final reversal reclaimed 33 ticks in a brief 9 min to eclipse the 100 SMa and the R1 Pivot.

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