CB Consumer Confidence | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.26.13

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Apr 202013

2/26/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 60.8
Actual: 69.6
Previous revision: -0.2 to 58.4
SPIKE/REVERSE SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 93.11
1st Peak @ 93.44 – 1003 (3 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 92.52 – 1036 (36 min)
92 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin and caused a long reaction of 33 ticks culminating on the :03 bar that crossed the PP Pivot and extended the HOD by 23 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at 93.17 with 1 tick of slippage. Watch how it interacts with the PP Pivot and consider the strong report when evaluating the exit. with the :02 bar breaking easily, stay in and look to close out around 93.37 or so for about 20 ticks. This report broke at the same time as the FED testimony, but being statistical, the impact was felt more immediately. The reversal was mostly caused by the dollar rallying on the FED testimony aided by the reversal on this report. This resulted in a 92 tick drop in about 30 min down to the S1 Pivot.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.29.13

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Apr 202013

1/29/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 64.8
Actual: 58.6
Previous revision: +1.6 to 66.7
SPIKE/REVERSE SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 97.15
1st Peak @ 96.99 – 1001 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 97.17 – 1003 (3 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a decent margin and caused a short reaction of 16 ticks on the :01 bar that crossed the 50 SMA and bottomed on the R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 97.10 with no slippage. Look to close out at the R1 Pivot for about 9-10 ticks. A negative report of this magnitude should have caused a larger bearish reaction, but the R1 Pivot reined it in. This was also demonstrated by a quick reversal on the next bar that returned to the origin. After that it came back down to the level of the 1st peak, then traded sideways between the R1 Pivot and the 50 SMA.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.27.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Nov 272012

11/27/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 73.1
Actual: 73.7
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 87.78
1st Peak @ 87.84 – 0501 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 87.60 – 0506 (6 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report barley exceeded the forecast and caused a dull reaction of only 6 ticks. With JOBB you would not have been filled if you had a bracket of 7 or closed out your order after 12-15 sec. Since it was in a short term upward movement that was finding resistance on the 100 SMA with the 200 SMA looming just a few ticks higher, it could not go long without a good driver. After 2 bars of flirting with the 100 SMA, it reversed down to eclipse the 50 SMA and PP Pivot for 24 ticks.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.01.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Nov 012012

11/1/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 72.4
Actual: 72.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.26
1st Peak @ 86.38 – 0401 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 86.21 – 0402 (2 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.59 – 0425 (25 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 86.35 – 0433 (33 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Due to Hurricane Sandy, The CB Consumer Confidence Report broke at the same time as ISM Manufacturing. This was not recommended for trading due to the combined report and bizarre circumstances. The ISM Report mildly exceeded the forecast and had another reading above 50 for the second time in 4 months and the CB Consumer Confidence matched the forecast. This caused a small spike of 12 ticks that crossed both the 200 and 100 SMAs then surrendered and reversed for 17 ticks. It achieved a labored 2nd peak of 33 ticks 25 min later crossing the PP Pivot on its way up. Then it reversed for 24 ticks to nick the 50 SMA.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.25.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Sep 252012

9/25/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 63.1
Actual: 70.3
Previous revision: +0.7 to 61.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.53
1st Peak @ 92.97 – 0401 (1 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.08 – 0412 (12 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 92.64 – 0440 (40 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast along with a small upward previous revision causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot on the rise with ease. At it pulled away from the peak it left 10 ticks naked on the wick and drifted another 9 ticks lower to test the 100 SMA, but was able to use it as support and achieve a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks on the :12 bar at 93.08, a level of resistance demonstrated on the bullish trend in the last 3 hrs. With JOBB, you would have filled at about 92.64 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out at about 92.90 with 26 ticks where it slowly pulled away from the peak. It would also be a safe trade to short the reversal from the 2nd peak with the clear resistance at 93.08 and the 3 SMAs about 30 ticks lower. Close out when it penetrates the 200.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.28.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Aug 282012

8/28/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 65.8
Actual: 60.6
Previous revision: -0.5 to 65.4
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 95.69
1st Peak @ 95.43 – 0402 (3 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 96.11 – 0413 (13 min)
68 ticks

Notes: Report fell strongly short of the forecast with a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a choppy short spike over 3 minutes that fought through the PP Pivot to bottom out at 95.43. The market had sold off about 80 ticks in the previous 30 min, so all the major SMAs were above the market. The short term oversold sentiment and the strong support at and below the PP Pivot prevented the market from dropping any further. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 95.62, then had an opportunity to close at about 95.50 with at least 10-12 ticks. Then the reversal rebounded for 68 ticks in 11 minutes, fighting through all 3 major SMAs with ease. It finally hit resistance at the 200 SMA, unable to go above 96.11 in 3 bars on the first attempt.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.31.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jul 312012

7/31/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 61.5
Actual: 65.9
Previous revision: +0.7 to 62.7
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.55
1st Peak @ 89.65 – 0402 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 88.40 – 0408 (8 min)
125 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a small upward revision to the previous report. This caused a small long spike that had to fight through the 50 SMA near the origin for only 10 ticks, then surrendered and fell precipitously for 125 ticks in the next 7 min crossing the S1 and S2 Pivots, bottoming out at 88.40. The market was in a down trend prior to the report, but had been able to fend off the bears for the last hour as the traders waited on the economic news. Then the CB report came in better than expected, but not enough to bring the bulls back. This resulted in the small spike, then the downtrend resumed again with strong conviction. This is a case where you have to be careful and close out with a small profit or loss as the JOBB fills long, but do not let the market hit your stop loss as you rely on hope for the long move to reengage.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.26.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jun 262012

6/26/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 63.8
Actual: 62.0
Previous revision: -0.5 to 64.4
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 79.37
1st Peak @ 79.18 – 0402 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 79.68 – 0408 (8 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report fell moderately short of the forecast with a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short reaction that had to fight through the 50 SMA near the origin then bounced off of the convergence of the 100 and 200 SMAs. The 200 SMA on the 15 min chart was also at the 79.30 area providing strong support. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 79.28, then had an opportunity to close out with 5-8 ticks of profit as it hovered at the 100 and 200 SMA area. The reversal was able to fight through the 50 SMA to eclipse the short term high from 30 min earlier by 4 ticks.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.29.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

May 292012

5/29/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 69.8
Actual: 64.9
Previous revision: -0.5 to 68.7
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 91.58
1st Peak @ 91.35 – 0401 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 91.63 – 0407 (7 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short reaction that had to fight through the 50 SMA before bouncing off of the PP Pivot making it unable to reach the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 91.50, then had an opportunity to close out with a 5-10 ticks of profit as it hovered between the 50 SMA and the PP Pivot. The reversal was able to climb back above the 50 SMA to almost eclipse the R1 Pivot.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.27.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Mar 272012

3/27/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 70.3
Actual: 70.2
Previous revision: +0.8 to 71.6
DULL REACTION

Notes: Report matched the forecast almost exactly with a small upward revision to the previous report. This caused a quick pop upward on the 04:00 candle that would have filled you long with JOBB at about 107.62. It reversed for almost 30 ticks before falling again. Then it retreated down to bob around 3-7 ticks in the red before it would have hot your stop loss on the 04:02 candle. Close out with a handful of ticks loss rather than wait for it to hit your stop loss. Do not look to trade a reverse on this either as the influence of the report wears off quickly and the volume of the spike was low so there is little to reverse.

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