2/28/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 63.1
Actual: 70.8
Previous revision: +0.4 to 61.5
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 108.48 *spiked prematurely in last :03 of 0500 candle about 14 ticks, but not represented by start level.
1st Peak @ 108.79 – 0501 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 108.10 – 0516 (16 min)
69 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast with a small upward previous revision. This caused a spike of 31 ticks not counting the premature upward 14 tick move upward. It spiked up to cross the PP line and quickly pulled back. The default range of the chart would have left this Pivot Point off the screen on the top. This is a good reminder to check for these in the time before the report breaks, and collapse your screen to bring it into the picture in case the reaction approaches. The spike was quick and promptly dropped 8 ticks. If you had a stop limit set there before the spike, it would have filled, but not likely on a manual close. Reversal yielded 69 ticks to briefly dip below the 200 and 50 SMAs.

12/27/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 58.5
Actual: 64.5
Previous revision: -0.8 to 55.2
SPIKE / RETRACE or PRICED IN
Started @ 100.79
1st Peak @ 100.86 – 0501 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 100.49 – 0516 (16 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast but the previous revision was downward. This should have caused a healthy spike but did not for 2 reasons: 1) This is Christmas season so low volume, 2) the last 20 min saw a large rise in the market so most of the reaction was priced in, yielding a muted reaction. I would not trade based on #1, but even if I had setup a JOBB, I would close out before it filled with the dull reaction.

10/25/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 46.1
Actual: 39.8
Previous revision: +1.0 to 45.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.66
1st Peak @ 93.40 – 0401 (1 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.13 – 0409 (9 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 93.96 – 0421 (21 min)
83 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on full reversal . About 25 ticks of the 0400 candle was a drop in the last second, so you would get some of that with JOBB. Market peaked between the 50 SMA and the R1 line, then retraced to approach the 100 SMA before falling to hit the R1 line. Then it reversed to go above the 100 SMA. I would trade this with JOBB, ride the retrace and close out after it hit the R1 line at 0409 around 93.20.

8/30/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 44.5
Previous revision: -0.3 to 59.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.41
1st Peak @ 87.87 – 0401 (1 min)
54 ticks (2x bottom)

2nd Peak @ 87.64 – 0406 (6 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 88.29 – 0415 (15 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on minimal reversal . Market peaked just below the 100 SMA , then dropped to the 200 SMA and reversed a level between the 50 SMA / R1 line and the 100 SMA.