6/17/2013 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4
Actual: 7.8
DULL REACTION
Started @ 98.26
1st Peak @ 98.32 – 0831 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 97.91 – 0846 (16 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report moderately exceeded the forecast and barely impressed the market. It was also caught in the middle of a small correction after a large short move in the previous hour. The correction had exhausted the bulls as it ran into the 50 SMA and the R1 Pivot and then it was looking for another short move. The moderately bullish news was not enough to sustain the long move. We saw an initial long move of 6 ticks, then it stalled and hovered before slowly falling. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 98.30 with no slippage, then look to exit near breakeven as it only gave you about 1-2 ticks of profit opportunity. After the :31 and :32 bars hovered above the 50 SMA, it fell for a reversal of 41 ticks in the next 15 min.

2/15/2013 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0830 EST)
Forecast: -2.1
Actual: 10.0
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 97.06
1st Peak @ 97.02 – 0831 (1 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast. In spite of this, it is almost like the market was not paying attention as the 0831 bar only had a range of 5 ticks. This is a case with JOBB, where your order would not have filled. Close out your order after 15 sec without a spike. It is hard to day why this happened with strong bullish news, but occasionally the markets react or fail to react in the usual pattern. The delayed bullish run from 0834 to 0844 may have been due to the news, but it is hard to say.

6/15/2012 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 13.6%
Actual: 2.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.86
1st Peak @ 87.72 – 0831 (1 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.66 – 0836 (6 min)
20 ticks

Reverse to 87.93 – 0846 (16 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast. The market was trending lower overall and had been correcting upward before the report. The 50 SMA was used as resistance to trigger the short move. The initial peak yielded 14 ticks just below the 20 SMA, then after 5 min of trading sideways, it fell for a 2nd peak of 20 ticks to match a low achieved twice in the past hour. Then it reversed back up to the 200 SMA for 27 ticks in 10 min.

1/17/2012 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 10.8%
Actual: 13.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 100.79
1st Peak @ 100.89 – 0331 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.06 – 0335 (5 min)
27 ticks

Retrace to 100.75 – 0339 – 0344 (9 – 14 min)
31 ticks (4x bottom)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast. The reaction was strong and steady, briefly topping the 100 and 200 SMAs. Then it reversed to the price level right before the report release at the R3 Pivot. Eventually it fought through short, but no longer due to influence from this report.

11/15/2012 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -2.0%
Actual: 0.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.29
1st Peak @ 98.53 – 0331 (1 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.57 – 0340 (10 min)
28 ticks

Retrace to 98.35 – 0348 (18 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast. Retail Sales (Strong Positive) and PPI (Mild negative) broke at the same time. This caused strong spike in the 1st candle, then the rapid reversal on the 2nd candle. I would not trade due to 3 medium movers breaking at the same time.