Final GDP | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 9.26.2013

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

9/26/2013 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.7%
Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 131’24
1st Peak@ 131’18 – 0830:09 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 131’23 – 0830:50 (1 min)
5 ticks

Final peak @ 131’15 – 0850 (20 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 131’24 – 0905 (35 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.2%, causing a short spike of 6 ticks in 9 sec that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 131’21 with 1 tick of slippage. Then look to exit near the S1 Pivot with 1-2 ticks where it hovered for 17 sec. After that it reversed quickly for 5 ticks at the end of the :31 bar. Then it stepped lower for a final peak of 3 more ticks in 19 min that extended the LOD. After that it reversed 9 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot / 100 SMA.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.27.2014

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

3/27/2014 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.7%
Actual: 2.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’23
1st Peak@ 133’18 – 0830:07 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’24 – 0836 (6 min)
6 ticks

Continued Reversal to 133’29 – 0848 (18 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 133’22 – 0904 (34 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.1%, causing a small short spike of 5 ticks in 7 sec that started on the 200 SMA and fell to cross the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 133’21 with no slippage. Then look to exit just below the R1 Mid Pivot with 2 ticks where it hovered for about 20 sec. After that it reversed 6 ticks in 5 min to the 200 SMA then another 5 ticks in 12 more min to nearly reach the R1 Pivot. Then it pulled back 7 ticks in 16 min to the 200/100 SMAs.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.25.2014

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

6/25/2014 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -1.8%
Actual: -2.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 136’10
1st Peak@ 136’21 – 0830:03 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 136’18 – 0832 (2 min)
3 ticks

2nd peak @ 136’29 – 0837 (7 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 136’19 – 0849 (19 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.1%, causing a large long spike of 11 ticks in 3 sec that started on the 13/20 SMAs and climbed to cross the R2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 136’14 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then look to exit on the R2 Pivot where it hovered with 5 ticks. After that it reversed only 3 ticks in 1 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks to the R2 Pivot in 12 min.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.26.2014

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

9/26/2014 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 4.6%
Actual: 4.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION -NO FILL
Started @ 137’29
1st Peak@ 137’31 – 0830:12 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 137’28 – 0832 (2 min)
3 ticks

2nd peak @ 138’01 – 0834 (4 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 137’05 – 0900 (30 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 137’25 – 0925 (55 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, causing a dull reaction of only 1 tick until 12 sec into the reaction when it popped up for 1 more tick. It started on the R1 Mid Pivot and just above the OOD and did not move much. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, you should have cancelled the order after 10 sec with no fill and the matching forecast. If you did not cancel, you would have filled long at 137’31 with no slippage, then had the opportunity to exit at breakeven or -1 tick. After the small bump it reversed 3 ticks in 1 min before climbing for a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks. Then it dramatically fell 28 ticks in 26 min to the S2 Mid Pivot before pulling back 20 ticks in 25 min to the PP Pivot / 100 SMA.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.27.2015

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

3/27/2015 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.4%
Actual: 2.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’04
1st Peak@ 163’11 – 0831:17 (2 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 163’06 – 0836 (6 min)
5 ticks

2nd peak @ 163’17 – 0841 (11 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 163’04 – 0856 (26 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.2%, causing a long spike of 7 ticks over about 80 sec. As we mentioned in the alert, “if the result differs by 0.2% or less, look for a spike of 4-7 ticks”. Sure enough that was prophetic in this case. This did differ from the previous reports to drift into the :32 bar on the first peak, but other than that it was true to form. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 163’06 with no slippage. Then be patient and set a profit target at 4 ticks since the HOD is the only resistance barrier. It would have filled nicely early in the :32 bar. After that it reversed 5 ticks in 4 min to the 13 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 5 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 15 min as it crossed the 50 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 6.24.2015

Final GDP Comments Off

Jul 052015

6/24/2015 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -0.2%
Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 149’11
1st Peak@ 149’08 – 0830:00 (1 min)
-3 ticks

Reversal to 149’14 – 0830:00 (2 min)
6 ticks

Pullback to 149’08 – 0830:11 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 149’22 – 0838 (8 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 149’07 – 0905 (35 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, causing a small whipsaw that fell 3 ticks then reversed 6 ticks and fell 6 ticks in a total of 11 sec. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 149’09, then you would have been stopped at 149’13 for a 4 tick loss. The instability was due to the match, but after the initial 50 sec, it trended into a long move of 14 ticks in 7 min to cross the R1 Pivot before reversing 15 ticks in 27 min to cross the R1 Mid Pivot.