Grain Stocks | JO Bracket Breakout

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3.31.2016

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Apr 232016

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3_31_2016

3/31/2016 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 362.00
1st Peak @ 353.50 – 1200:59 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 360.75 – 1204 (4 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 353.00 – 1213 (13 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 355.75 – 1219 (19 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 347.75 – 1327 (87 min)
57 ticks

Expected Fill: 360.50 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 353.75 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 354.25 (just below the S3 Pivot)

Notes: Tame short spike offered a no slippage fill and an exit with up to 27 ticks as the :01 bar expired just below the S3 Pivot. Then a nice reversal in 3 min to the 13/20 SMAs followed by a double bottom. After that it trickled lower in about 1.5 hrs to the S4 Pivot.

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 1.12.2016

Grain Stocks, WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jan 152016

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 1_12_2016

1/12/2016 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 349.75
1st Peak @ 363.75 – 1201:44 (2 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 353.00 – 1204 (4 min)
43 ticks

Pullback to 359.50 – 1207 (7 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 356.00 – 1209 (9 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 359.75 – 1217 (86 min)
50 ticks

Expected Fill: 351.00 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 363.50 – 50 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 360.50 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Slow developing but stable long spike. It spent the first 50 sec unable to breach the R1 Pivot. This was unusual for a January Grain stocks. But then it climbed about 40 ticks in 55 sec to eclipse the R3 Pivot. With the big reversal, a long entry on or after the bounce off of the 13 SMA would have been prudent.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 9.30.2015

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Jan 112016

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 9_30_2015

9/30/2015 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 392.75
Head Fake to 394.25 – 1200:08 (1 min)
6 ticks

1st Peak @ 385.50 – 1200:22 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 389.75 – 1200:36 (1 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 383.50 – 1202:23 (3 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 390.75 – 1211 (11 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 385.25 – 1229 (29 min)
22 ticks

Expected Fill: 294.25 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 392.00 – 9 tick loss (worst case 15 tick stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: The first 8 sec spoiled an otherwise great 2nd peak trade.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 6.30.2015

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Jul 192015

6/30/2015 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – CANCEL SLOW MOVE
Anchor Point @ 401.25 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 414.75 – 1200:37 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 407.75 – 1201:50 (2 min)
28 ticks
————
Pullback to 415.75 – 1211 (11 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 412.00 – 1214 (14 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 424.50 – 1244 (44 min)
93 ticks

Reversal to 418.00 – 1311 (71 min)
26 ticks

Final Peak @432.25 – 1415 (135 min)
124 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 388.75 (in between the S3 and S3 Mid Pivots) / 385.00 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 413.75 (above the R2 Pivot) / 417.25 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report Reaction differed from previous years June reports which were whipsaws or shortly sustained. We saw a long spike of 54 ticks to breach the R2 Pivot that took 37 sec. Due to the slow approach it would have been wise to cancel, but it still would have worked out. This would have filled the inner short tier at 413.75 with 4 ticks to spare, then reversed 28 ticks in the next min to the R1 Pivot to allow up to 20 or so ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 32 ticks in 9 min before reversing 15 ticks in 3 min to the R2 Pivot and 13 SMA. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 39 more ticks in 30 min t to nearly reach the R4 Mid Pivot before reversing 26 ticks in 27 min to cross the 50 SMA. Then it climbed for a final peak of 30 more ticks as the session closed. This behaved much more like the January or September report, but still would have been a decent trap trade.

ZC 05-15 (1 Min) 3.31.2015

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Apr 012015

3/31/2015 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 398.25
1st Peak @ 385.00 – 1201:24 (1 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 389.25 – 1203 (3 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 380.50 – 1217 (17 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 382.25 – 1221 (21 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 375.50 – 1415 (135 min)
91 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused an expected large reaction that went short. It started just above the R2 Pivot and below the HOD then fell 29 ticks in 1 sec to the S1 Pivot, then another 24 ticks in the next 80 sec as it eclipsed the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 395.50 with 5 ticks of slippage then ride the wave and look to exit where it hovered for up to 40 ticks. You could have also stayed in and held on for the long term as this report typically turns into a fan. After a 17 tick reversal in 2 min to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot, it fell for a 2nd peak of 18 more ticks in 14 min as it reached the S4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 4 min to the 13 SMA before falling for 20 more ticks into the session close. This would have allowed up to 80 ticks to be captured with patience. As the 376 area started holding firm, look to exit there.

ZC 03-15 (1 Min) 1.12.2015

Grain Stocks, WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Feb 092015

1/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) / Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 397.50
1st Peak @ 407.00 – 1200:22 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 390.25 – 1201:41 (2 min)
67 ticks

Pullback to 403.00 – 1206 (6 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 393.50 – 1212 (12 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 406.00 – 1326 (86 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a roller coaster type reaction. It climbed 38 ticks, crossing the R2 Pivot then hovered before reversing around 20 sec after the top of the hour. This is very common with this report and was advised in the alert. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 398.75 with no slippage as the initial ascent was slow and tame. Then it hovered around 406.00 for 10 sec to allow an exit for about 25-30 ticks. Then it reversed 67 ticks in about 80 sec to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot before pulling back 51 ticks in 4 min to the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 38 ticks in 6 min to the S2 Mid Pivot before pulling back 50 ticks in 74 min to the R2 Pivot.

ZC 12-14 (1 Min) 9.30.2014

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Oct 132014

9/30/2014 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 324.25
1st Peak @ 321.00 – 1200:30 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 323.25 – 1200:54 (1 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 319.50 – 1206 (6 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 324.00 – 1242 (42 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a mild bearish reaction. It fell 13 ticks, reaching the S3 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short after a 25 sec wait with about 1-2 ticks of slippage at 322.50 or 322.25, then seen it hover just above the S3 Mid Pivot for about 20 sec. Exiting after seeing the hovering at about 321.25 would have been safe for about 4-5 ticks. After the hovering, it reversed for 9 ticks in the next 24 sec to the S2 Mid Pivot as the :01 bar was expiring. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks to the S3 Pivot 5 min later. After that it reversed 18 ticks in 36 min to the 200 SMA. Then it backed off and traded sideways into the session close.

ZC 12-14 (1 Min) 6.30.2014

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Jul 032014

6/30/2014 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 444.25 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 431.00 – 1200:02 (1 min)
)))-53 ticks

)))Reversal to 438.25 – 1200:05 (1 min)
)))29 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 425.50 – 1200:29 (1 min)
)))-75 ticks from anchor pt

)))Reversal to 434.25 – 1201:17 (2 min)
)))35 ticks
————
Pullback to 427.25 – 1203 (3 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 435.00 – 1222 (22 min)
31 ticks

Pullback to 427.00 – 1230 (30 min)
32 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 431.50 (just above the S3 Pivot) / 428.25 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 457.00 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 461.00 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report Reaction caused an initial strong bearish reaction that backed off quickly but was more stable than the past two June reports. It fell 53 ticks, crossing all 3 major Pivots and the S3 Pivot after 2 sec, then reversed 29 ticks in the next 3 sec and hovered for about 20 sec. The initial drop would have filled your inner long entry with about 2-3 ticks to spare, then allowed 20-25 ticks to be captured where it hovered near the S2 Mid Pivot. If you did not get out there, your outer long entry would have filled in the second drop that eclipsed the S4 Pivot with about 8-10 ticks to spare. In this case an average entry of about 429.75 would have allowed up to 32 total ticks on 2 contracts to be captured early on the :02 bar or later when it tried to go above the S2 Pivot but failed. Then it fell to nearly reach the S4 Pivot at the bottom of the hour.

ZC 05-14 (1 Min) 3.31.2014

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Apr 172014

3/31/2014 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 476.00
1st Peak @ 498.00 – 1202 (2 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 485.50 – 1206 (6 min)
50 ticks

2nd Peak @ 500.75 – 1244 (44 min)
99 ticks

Reversal to 498.75 – 1248 (48 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a strong bullish reaction. It climbed 88 ticks, crossing all 3 major Pivots and the R2 Mid Pivot over 2 bars in a large sustained reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 6-8 ticks of slippage, then seen it shoot for the moon. This is one of those reports that you can patiently wait for it to continue to heap on more ticks into the 2nd bar. An exit above 495 would have been ideal for at least 64 ticks. After the 1st peak, it fell for 50 ticks in the next 4 min leaving a great buy opportunity as it hit the 13 SMA for the beginning of the 2nd peak. It climbed to a double top in about 12 min and another 11 ticks 30 min later. Buying the dips would be very safe in this situation. After the 2nd peak, it backed off only 8 ticks and traded sideways in a narrow range around the R2 Pivot. Then at the end of the session, it climbed a bit more to close the session.

ZC 03-14 (1 Min) 1.10.2014

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Jan 112014

1/10/2014 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 406.50
1st Peak @ 420.00 – 1201 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 413.75 – 1202 (2 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 428.50 – 1206 (6 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 419.50 – 1212 (12 min)
36 ticks

Final Peak @ 432.75 – 1310 (70 min)
105 ticks

Reversal to 428.75 – 1319 (79 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a strong bullish reaction. It climbed 54 ticks, crossing all 3 major Pivots and the R2 Pivot, before backing off and chopping between the R1 and R2 Pivots. With JOBB, unfortunately you would not have been filled long as slippage would have been too great. In this case, it when the entry is gapped, it can be a safe play to try to manually buy on the internal retracement of the :01 bar. I manually moved my long entry to about 412.00, just above the PP Pivot and it was just missed, but if filled, it would have given another 25 ticks to be captured. After the 1st peak, it left about 24 ticks on the wick naked, but the next 3 bars regained the deficit as it hovered around the R2 Mid Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 34 more ticks on the :06 bar to nearly reach the R4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 36 ticks back to the 13 SMA, before developing into an upward FAN that achieved another 17 tick greater peak, reaching the R4 Pivot about 1 hr later. Then it backed off 16 ticks to the R4 Mid Pivot in 9 min and continued trading sideways between the pivots until the session closed.

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