3/1/2016 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 48.5
Actual: 49.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008838
1st Peak @ 0.008816 – 1002:09 (3 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.008827 – 1008 (8 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008788 – 1039 (39 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 0.008810 – 1059 (59 min)
22 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008834 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008817 – 17 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008824 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot / LOD)

Notes: Nice spike that carried through into the 3rd bar for over 20 ticks. Then a reversal to the falling 13 SMA offering a nice 2nd peak entry to ride the 13 SMA for 30+ ticks in 30 min to the S3 Mid Pivot.

3/3/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 52.3
Actual: 53.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’16
1st Peak @ 133’11 – 1001 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’23 – 1016 (16 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report came in modestly better than the forecast, with a reading 0.9 points above the forecast causing a small and shortly sustained bearish reaction. We saw a short spike of 5 ticks on the :01 bar that started just below the R2 Pivot / OOD / 50 SMA then crossed the R2 Mid Pivot and LOD for 5 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 133’13 with no slippage, then seen it settle to hover in between 133’13 and 133’12 for about 30 sec in the middle of the :01 bar allowing for an exit at breakeven or +1 tick. The quick pullback, lack of 2nd peak attempt and strong reversal were due to breaking news about Russian President Putin’s aggression in the Ukraine which caused a rally on the ZB and overrode the ISM sentiment. Normally we would have seen a stronger push lower for 2-4 more ticks, and/or a solid 2nd peak within 15 min. Instead we saw 12 tick reversal in 15 minutes to the 200 SMA. This is a case where you want to take the proactive step to get out with the hovering even if eating a 1-2 tick loss. Do not watch it slowly march to the 5 tick stop loss.

5/1/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.3
Actual: 54.9
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (Fill)
Started @ 0.009777
1st Peak @ 0.009768 – 1000:00 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009785 – 1004 (4 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in modestly better than the forecast, with a reading 0.6 points above the forecast causing a small and shortly sustained bearish reaction followed by a quick reversal. We saw a short spike of 9 ticks on the :01 bar that started just above the 100/50 SMAs then fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD, before reversing. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 009772 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it snap back to hover between 2 and 5 ticks in the red. Look to exit with a 3 tick loss on the dull reaction after recognizing the near matching results and the rebound from hitting the LOD and S1 Mid Pivot. Do not stay in and slowly watch it march to the stop loss and lose an additional 5 ticks for no reason. After the :01 bar, it continued to reverse up to the OOD as it crossed the PP Pivot 3 min later. Then it backed off and achieved an extended reversal of 4 more ticks 15 min later.

7/1/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.6
Actual: 55.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009854
1st Peak @ 0.009864 – 1002:58 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009851 – 1013 (13 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 0.009860 – 1028 (28 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009852 – 1057 (57 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly below the forecast with a deviation of only 0.3 pts. This caused a large, quick, and shortly sustained bullish reaction followed by a quick reversal. We saw a slow developing long spike of only 10 ticks on the :01 – :03 bars that started on the 200 SMA then rose to cross the OOD and the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 009858 with no slippage, then seen it struggle with the OOD and S2 Mid Pivot for about 90 sec. Due to the nearly matching results and the resistance encountered, look to exit at 9860 or 9861 with 2-3 ticks. After the peak was reached, it reversed for 13 ticks in the next 10 min, crossing the S2 Pivot. This would have been a great reversal trade opportunity. After that it pulled back for 9 ticks, and reversed later as it started cycling between the S2 Mid and S2 Pivots.

9/2/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 57.0
Actual: 59.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009527
1st Peak @ 0.009516 – 1000:00 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009527 – 1005 (5 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009505 – 1026 (26 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.009519 – 1056 (56 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 0.009510 – 1054 (54 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly above the forecast with a deviation of 2.0 pts and came the closest to the psychological level of 60 in years. This caused a quick short spike of 11 ticks that started on the 20 SMA and fell to extend the LOD. It retraced for several ticks in the early part of the bar, then fell to settle around 0.009519. Since this was the day after a US holiday, the Pivots were distorted and out of the picture. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 009521 with 2 ticks of slippage, then look to exit where it hovered late in the :01 bar for about 2 ticks. After the peak, it reversed back to the origin in 4 min producing a perfect opportunity for a short entry for a 2nd peak trade. A short entry at 0.009526 on the 20 SMA would have been ideal for 15+ ticks. It fell for 22 ticks in 21 min, extending the LOD and using the 13 SMA as resistance. An exit around 0.009512 would have been safe after several minutes of trading sideways. Then it reversed 14 ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the 50 SMA. After that it pulled back 9 ticks and traded sideways on the 50 SMA.