11/3/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 56.5
Actual: 59.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008790
1st Peak @ 0.008774 – 1000:00 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008791 – 1000:56 (1 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008770 – 1012 (12 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.008800 – 1023 (23 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with a deviation of 2.5 pts and matched the high of September. This caused a quick and shortly sustained spike of 16 ticks that started on the 100 SMA and fell to cross the 50 SMA near the origin, then the S3 Pivot while extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.008783 with 3 ticks of slippage, then look to exit where it hovered for 6 sec just below the S3 Pivot for about 5 ticks. It reversed quickly due to the strong support at the S3 Pivot back to the origin as the :01 bar was expiring. If you look at the price action in the last 2 hrs, you will see at least 4 tests of the S3 Pivot that failed to penetrate. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks after 11 min, but the S3 Pivot held again, limiting the time spent below the barrier to about 4 min. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 11 min to the 200 SMA. After that it fell again over a longer period to a lower low after about an hour after the report.

2/2/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 54.9
Actual: 53.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008512
1st Peak @ 0.008528 – 1002:03 (3 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008524 – 1004 (4 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008539 – 1012 (12 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.008517 – 1108 (68 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a deviation of 1.4 pts. This caused an initial long spike of 8 ticks that started on the PP Pivot and reached the R1 Mid Pivot immediately. It climbed another 8 ticks to peak just after the start of the :03 bar nearly to the R1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008518 with 2 ticks of slippage. Since it slowly climbed to the peak and did not hover much, patience would have been ok to secure up to 9 ticks. After a minimal 4 tick reversal, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 8 min to the R2 Mid Pivot / OOD. Then it reversed 22 ticks in 56 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and fell short of the 200 SMA.

4/1/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 52.5
Actual: 51.5
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008357
1st Peak @ 0.008368 – 1000:07 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008357 – 1003 (3 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008382 – 1032 (32 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.008361 – 1058 (58 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.0 pts. This caused a 11 tick long spike that started on the 20 SMA and rose to cross the R2 Mid Pivot in 7 sec. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008360 with no slippage, then you would have seen it climb and hover around the R2 mid Pivot to allow 5-7 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 11 ticks back to the origin in 2 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 14 more ticks in 29 min after crossing the R2 Pivot and nearly reaching the HOD. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 26 min to the 100 SMA.

6/1/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 51.9
Actual: 52.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008065
1st Peak @ 0.008042 – 1001:28 (2 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.008047 – 1001:50 (2 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008037 – 1011 (11 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.008045 – 1019 (19 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a deviation of 0.9 pts. This caused a short spike of 23 ticks that started in the middle of the cluster of the SMAs and PP Pivot then fell 18 ticks in 6 sec to cross the S1 Pivot, then another 5 ticks in about 82 sec to cross the LOD and S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008059 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it fell and hovered at 0.008050 to allow an easy exit with 9 or so ticks. If you were more patient up to 12 more ticks could have been secured a few min later. It reversed for only 5 ticks, then stepped lower for a final peak of 5 more ticks in 9 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 8 min to the 20 SMA.

9/1/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.6
Actual: 51.1
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008337
1st Peak @ 0.008355 – 1000:00 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.008341 – 1000:14 (1 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 0.008351 – 1003 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008333 – 1011 (11 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008343 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008350 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008356 (near the high est’d at 0900) – move down slightly

Notes: Large spike was unsustainable, but still allowed up to 7 ticks to be captured in the early part of the :31 bar. Good reversal opportunity aftert 1005 with a lower pivot high.