12/2/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 55.2
Actual: 57.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 130’11
1st Peak @ 129’29 – 1001 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 130’03 – 1018 (18 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 129’23 – 1119 (79 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 129’31 – 1131 (91 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 2.1 pts offset, and above 57.0 for the first time in over 2.5 yrs causing a large bearish reaction. We saw a drop of 13 ticks on the :01 bar that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and crossed all 3 major SMAs, then reached the S2 Pivot just above the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 130’08 with no slippage, then seen it fall and repeatedly bounce off of the S2 Pivot. Look to exit at about 129’30 for 8 ticks. After a minor reversal of 6 ticks that hit the 50 SMA then went sideways for 45 min, it fell again for another 6 ticks on the 2nd peak in about 30 min. Then it reversed to 8 ticks, crossing the S2 Pivot and 50 SMA in about 15 min. Due to the strong report, the reversal was short lived as it continued to hover near the LOD using the falling SMAs as resistance.

10/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.3
Actual: 56.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’08
1st Peak @ 133’01 – 1001 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 133’10 – 1016 (16 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’30 – 1039 (39 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 133’06 – 1115 (75 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 0.9 pts offset, and above 56.0. We saw a small drop of 6 ticks on 1 bar that crossed the 100 SMA and nearly reached the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot as the market was engaged in a small rally over the last 2 hrs. It was unsustainable and retreated back to the origin. More than likely the theatrics with the US government shutdown overshadowed this report to cause the muted reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 133’05 with no slippage. If you did not set a profit target, look to exit at about 133’03 for 2 ticks as it hovered near the low until 16 sec into the bar before reversing. After the 1st peak, it flirted with the 100 SMA for a few min, then reversed to 133’10 on the :16 bar for 9 ticks. Then it geared up for a 2nd peak of 10 ticks, crossing the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot, before reversing for 8 ticks. Very tame market…

8/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 55.4
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 133’06
1st Peak @ 132’18 – 1001 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 132’31 – 1005 (5 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report came in much stronger than the forecast with 3.3 pts offset, and above 55.0. For the 2nd month, we shifted over to the ZB for this report due to the impact of US news. We saw a drop of 20 ticks that crossed no SMAs and the S1 Pivot as the market was already in a down trend. It bottomed immediately, then hovered within 5 ticks of the low for about 10 sec before backing off even more. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 133’01 with 1 tick of slippage. If you did not set a profit target, look to exit at about 132’21 after the hovering to capture up to 12 ticks. The large reaction was unsustainable, and left a large naked tail of 8 ticks. Then the reversal was able to reclaim a total of 13 ticks back to the S1 Pivot on the :05 bar. After that it traded sideways below the S1 Pivot and eventually fell again.