ISM Manufacturing PMI | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 012012

8/1/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.3
Actual: 49.8
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 88.50
1st Peak @ 88.43 – 0401 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 88.74 – 0406 (6 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report fell slightly short of the forecast and came in below the threshold of 50 indicating a small contraction for the second month in a row. This caused a 7 tick short spike that should not have filled your JOBB order. After the initial spike did not fill and nothing in the next 10 or so seconds fills, close out and cancel the order. It appears the initial short spike could not go lower than the 20 SMA, indicating little bearish influence from the report. After the :02 -:04 bars chopped up and down, the reversal yielded a healthy 31 ticks to slice through the PP Pivot and peak at 88.73.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.02.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 022012

7/2/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 49.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 83.26
1st Peak @ 82.91 – 0402 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 83.13 – 0405 (5 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report moderately fell short of the forecast and came in below the threshold of 50 indicating contraction for the first time in 3 years. This caused a 35 tick short spike that did not have to cross any SMAs or Pivots to peak at 82.91. It then rebounded for 22 ticks on the :05 bar and was likely gearing up for a 2nd peak short when news out of Iran broke about a threat to close of the Strait of Hormuz. This caused the dramatic long :07 bar and follow on volatility. This is why you always use stop losses when trading 2nd peaks and reversals, because some news event can always throw the current conditions out of the window and ruin your trade.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 012012

6/1/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.0
Actual: 53.5
Previous revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 83.76
1st Peak @ 83.64 / Reverse to 84.08 – 0401 (1 min)
-12 ticks / 32 ticks

Notes: Report fell slightly short of the forecast causing indecision with a premature short spike then a strong long spike. Since this report followed negative news from Europe then a very disappointing US Employment report, and occurred on a Friday, the markets were jittery and thinly traded. When a nearly matching report resulted, it was a recipe for indecision. The 50 and 200 SMAs heavily influenced the market movement 20 min on either side of the report.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 012012

5/1/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.0
Actual:54.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 104.81
1st Peak @ 105.24 – 0401 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 104.83 – 0408 (8 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report moderately exceeded the forecast causing a 43 tick spike that did not have to cross any SMAs or Pivots to peak at 105.24 where it ran out of gas with no obvious point of resistance. Then the reversal gave it all back in 7 minutes to almost reach the 50 SMA. After the reversal, it rebounded upward and eventually developed into a strong upward FAN. While the ISM report was the catalyst, the strong reversal after the initial spike and the lack of a reversal in the area after the FAN indicate that it is not due to the influence of the ISM report.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.02.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 022012

4/2/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.3
Actual: 53.4
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 102.72
1st Peak @ 102.81 – 0401 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 102.55 – 0402 (2 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast generating a dull reaction. JOBB would have gotten you in long at about 102.76. You would have seen a spike up to 102.81, then hovering between 1and 4 ticks of profit for 20 sec. This is an obvious situation to close out. This report normally delivers a large spike in a quick manner, so the absence from the norm and the hovering are tripwires to get out with a small profit. Had you waited it out, it would hit your stop loss about halfway through the :01 candle.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 072012

3/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual:52.4
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 107.65
1st Peak @ 107.24 – 0401 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 107.97 – 0402 (2 min)
73 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast causing a 41 tick spike that fought through the 100 and 200 SMAs bottoming out just below the 200 and hovering in that area. Since it stalled just below the 200, this is as much as you are going to get out of this report. The reversal was caged between the 100 and the 200 for 10 minutes then broke out long, straddled the 50 and rose for a 73 tick rise up to 107.97 at 0526.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 012012

2/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual:54.1
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 98.77
1st Peak @ 98.89 – 0401 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 98.60 – 0402 (2 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of forecast causing a minor spike (in the wrong direction), and immediate reversal on the 0402 candle. Due to the fall of the market in the previous 30 min, reaction was probably priced in. Still this is an odd reaction as even a 0.5 disparity has caused a 30-40 tick 1st peak in the past. With JOBB, take the meager profit on the 0401 candle as the reaction is clearly underwhelming.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.03.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 032012

1/3/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.3
Actual:53.9
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 102.64
1st Peak @ 102.74 – 0501 (1 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast but 0501 candle was tame. This is due to the mild delta of the report and the New Years hangover with low trade volume the first trading day after the holidays. JOBB would have gotten you in long and allowed you to close out with a meager profit or flat after hovering.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.01.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 012011

12/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 51.6
Actual:52.7
Previous revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 101.16
1st Peak @ 101.27 / Retrace to 101.04 – 0501 (1 min)
11 ticks / -12 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast but 0501 candle was indecisive with low after report market volume. Either the report was leaked in advance, or it was already priced in such that the reaction was bizarre. JOBB would have gotten you in long and then retraced to hit the stop loss before returning to the candle start value.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.01.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 012011

11/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual:50.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 91.06
1st Peak @ 90.41 – 0401 (1 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 90.89 – 0402 (2 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast causing a healthy spike, and immediate reversal. The 200 SMA acted like a magnet limiting the spike and the reversal, then preventing any major departure from it in the following 10 minutes. With the 0401 candle crossing the 200 SMA halfway and not able to reach the 100 SMA, I would wait until the 0402 candle until it started to go long and close out at about 90.60, just in case the 0402 candle would fall again.

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