CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.03.11

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Oct 032011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.03.11

10/3/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual:51.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 77.59
1st Peak @ 78.42 – 0403 (3 min)
83 ticks

2nd Peak @ 78.86 – 0414 (14 min)
127 ticks

Reversal to 78.22 – 0424 (24 min)
64 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . 1st peak crossed the50 SMA about halfway up, and the 100 SMA near its apex, then retreated to the 100 SMA. The retracement between peaks came to bounce off of the 50 SMA then a determined rise to cross the 100 SMA easily and then the 200 SMA. I would watch the 0411 candle and seeing it clear the 200 SMA remain in until 0414-0415 as it nearly triple topped.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.01.11

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Sep 012011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.01.11

9/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 48.7
Actual:50.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 89.41
1st Peak @ 90.13 – 0404 (4 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 89.44 – 0415 (15 min)
69 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, and follow on reversal . Market was stuck flirting with the 200 SMA around the release causing a premature spike up to the 200 SMA, then the tail on the 0401 candle before the large spike upward. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long on the 0400 candle, and absorbed the heat of 10-11 ticks on the 0401 candle before it spiked up. The first candle rose 62 ticks, so it is worth waiting to see what the follow on candles do. With the 2 long wicks on the 0402-0403 candles, I would close out around 90.00.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.01.11

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Aug 012011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.01.11

8/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.0
Actual:50.9
Previous revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 98.72
1st Peak @ 97.93 – 0401 (1 min)
79 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.28 – 0549 (109 min)
444 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast causing a healthy down spike and initiating a FAN. It is hard to say in this case where the influence of the report ends and the snowball just continues to roll down the hill, but it methodically fell without a significant reversal for almost 2 hrs. I would have probably closed out after the 0435 candle anticipating a reversal there, not knowing the future.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 07.01.11

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Jul 012011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 07.01.11

7/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 51.9
Actual:55.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 95.00
1st Peak @ 95.75 – 0401 (1 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 95.10 – 0408 (8 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, and follow on reversal . Market had fallen about 60 ticks in the last 30 min and was starting to reverse prior to the report. Not needing much of a catalyst to spike long, the report delivered 75 ticks in the 0401 candle. Due to the rapid rise, this is a case for a retreat on the next candle. It gave back 65 ticks in the next 7 candles. The rise from 0420 to 0425 could have been a second peak, but the 12 min sideways action between 0408 and 0420 is unusual.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 06.01.11

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Jun 012011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 06.01.11

6/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 58.1
Actual:53.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.80
1st Peak @ 103.46 – 0402 (2 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 103.14 – 0415 (15 min)
66 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 103.76 – 0424 (24 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast causing a healthy down spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . Market was engaged in a downward FAN prior to the report so the momentum was aided by the negative report. The first peak hit the S1 line, then after retracement, the market was able to fall to a double bottom at 103.14 at 0414. With the three candles in that area having long tails, that is the departure point.

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