1/6/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual: 53.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009545
1st Peak @ 0.009555 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009562 – 1007 (7 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009548 – 1015 (15 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report fell short of the forecast by 1.6 points. This caused a long spike of 10 ticks on the :01 bar as it started just below the S1 Pivot, then crossed the 100 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.009549 with 1 tick of slippage on a premature move at the end of the :00 bar, then seen it continue to rally to hit the 100 SMA. It backed off and hovered about 2 ticks lower than the 100 SMA. Set your profit target at 0.009555 or 0.009556, just above the 100 SMA and wait for the fill, which would have happened on the :02 bar. After the 1st peak, it continued to climb for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in the next 7 min, crossing the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 14 ticks in 8 min, back to the 50 SMA.

10/3/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 57.2
Actual: 54.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010256
1st Peak @ 0.010278 – 1001 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.010262 – 1012 (12 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010281 – 1029 (29 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.010271 – 1049 (49 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report fell short of the forecast by 2.8 points after two months of strongly positive reports. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks on the :01 bar as it started on the 13 SMA, then crossed the PP Pivot and OOD before pulling back. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010264 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up to the peak immediately and retreat to the fill point after a few seconds. The combination of the PP Pivot and OOD are a strong resistance barrier, so look for a conservative target at about 0.010271 for 7 ticks. This would have filled later in the :01 bar. After that it hovered just below the OOD, then reversed back to the S1 Mid Pivot for 16 ticks. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks at the bottom of the hour, able to sustain the crossing of the PP Pivot for a longer period. Then it reversed back to the 50 SMA and OOD for 10 ticks in the next 20 min. After that it kept stepping higher for over an hour, but due to other factors than this report.

8/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.2
Actual: 56.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010147
1st Peak @ 0.010128 – 1001 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.010137 – 1002 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010125 – 1007 (7 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.010148 – 1102 (62 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report exceeded the forecast by 2.8 points. This caused a short spike of 19 ticks on the :01 bar as it started on the 50/100 SMAs, then terminated about 2 ticks above the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.010135 with 9 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover with a handful of ticks. Look to exit with about 5 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 9 ticks, then fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks to cross the R1 Mid Pivot 5 min later. After that it reversed slowly back to the origin, crossing all 3 SMAs in the next hour.

6/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.4
Actual: 53.7
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 93.75
1st Peak @ 93.66 – 1001 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 93.82 – 1001 (1 min)
-16 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report caused a muted, but indecisive reaction. ISM was slightly positive, while the concurrent factory orders were negative. It spiked short for 9 ticks to hit an area of support in the area of 93.69 established in the previous 30 min, then rebounded long for 16 ticks after 11 sec, nearly reaching the 200 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 93.70 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have been stopped with an 11 tick loss (1 tick of slippage) unless you were quick and closed out with less of a loss. After the initial indecisive bar, it attempted to go lower a few more times, but was unable to penetrate 93.66. Then it rebounded up to 94.13 15 min later for an extended reversal. After that it drifted lower before the inventory report took it long. This is the first indecisive reaction we have seen on this report in more than 18 months, but the matching ISM and offsetting factory orders reaction were the root cause.