CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.3.2013

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Apr 272013
 

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4_3_2013

4/3/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.9
Actual: 54.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.68

1st Peak @ 96.39 – 1006 (6 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 96.55 – 1027 (78 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.08 – 1038 (38 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 96.46 – 1055 (55 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report fell short of the forecast by 1.5 points. This caused a slow developing short spike of 29 ticks that culminated on the :06 bar. It used the 100 and 200 SMAs as resistance for the launch. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 96.64 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 6-20 ticks on the :02-:06 bars depending upon your patience. After the initial peak it chopped sideways and eventually reversed to nick the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a dramatic 2nd peak of 60 ticks after a brief struggle with the S1 Pivot. Then the reversal reclaimed 38 ticks, crossing the S1 Pivot and eclipsing the 50 SMA. After that the selloff continued to 94.18 until the pit close at 1430, about 3.5 hrs later, but not due to this report.

CL 04 13 (1 Min) 3.5.2013

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 3_5_2013

3/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 55.0
Actual: 56.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 90.49

1st Peak @ 90.60 – 1002 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 90.19 – 1118 (78 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report exceeded the forecast by a point. This caused a small long spike of 12 ticks that was unsustainable and could not reach the short term high attained a few min before the report. It used the 100 SMA as support for the launch, then the 20 SMA was enough resistance to rein it in. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 90.53 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 3-6 ticks on the :02 bar at or above the 20 SMA. After that it chopped sideways stuck in the fist of SMAs and attempted a 2nd peak, only able to achieve 1 more tick. Then the reversal fell 41 ticks to cross the all 3 SMAs and find support at the OOD.

CL 4 13 (1Min) 3.5.2013

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Apr 272013
 

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 3_5_2013
Caption for 3/5:
3/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 55.0
Actual: 56.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 90.49
1st Peak @ 90.60 – 1002 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 90.19 – 1118 (78 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report exceeded the forecast by a point. This caused a small long spike of 12 ticks that was unsustainable and could not reach the short term high attained a few min before the report. It used the 100 SMA as support for the launch, then the 20 SMA was enough resistance to rein it in. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 90.53 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 3-6 ticks on the :02 bar at or above the 20 SMA. After that it chopped sideways stuck in the fist of SMAs and attempted a 2nd peak, only able to achieve 1 more tick. Then the reversal fell 41 ticks to cross the all 3 SMAs and find support at the OOD.

CL 3 13 (1 Min) 2.5.2013

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Apr 272013
 

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 2_5_2013
Caption for 2/5:
2/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 55.2
Actual: 55.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 96.94
1st Peak @ 96.67 – 1003 (3 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 97.07 – 1010 (10 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Matching report that still delivered a bounce to the market. This caused a short spike of 27 ticks that had to fight through all 3 of the SMAs delaying the majority of the spike to the :03 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 96.88 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover within 2-3 ticks of your fill point on the :01 and :02 bars. This was cause for me to play it safe and exit at break even after I noticed the matching results along with the SMAs to restrict the drop. The :03 candle drop was a surprise and probably due to the overbought sentiment and trading near the HOD. Naturally, it could not sustain the drop and rebounded quickly on the following 2 bars, eventually reversing for 40 total ticks 10 min after the report to hit the HOD.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.05.12

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Dec 052012
 


CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.05.12

12/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.6
Actual: 54.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 88.42
1st Peak @ 88.54 – 0501 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 88.12 – 0513 (13 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report exceeded the forecast by a point. This caused a small long spike of 12 ticks that was unsustainable and could not reach the 200 SMA only 3 ticks higher. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 88.47 with no slippage, then seen it hover around your fill point to a few ticks positive. I placed my exit on the 200 SMA, and when it did not fill, it took my stop loss at 88.43 (moved up to just below the 100 SMA). The rally terminating 20 min before the report could not reach the 200 SMA, falling about 3 ticks short, matching the peak of the report. Then the reversal fell 42 ticks to cross the 100 and 50 SMAs and the PP Pivot to touch the LOD. Then it rebounded upward just before the oil inventory report.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.05.12

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Nov 052012
 


CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.05.12

11/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual: 54.2
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 85.04
1st Peak @ 85.12 – 0501 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 84.87 – 0507 (7 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Mildly positive report exceeded the forecast. The minimal offset from the forecast would not have filled a 5 tick buffer on JOBB until 40 sec into the bar, so you should have cancelled the order when it did not fill. If you did not, you would have filled at 85.09 then had a brief opportunity for only 2 ticks, then seen it retreat lower to bounce between a 10 tick loss and 1-2 tick profit. The presence of all 3 major SMAs kept the reaction restrained in a 25 tick range, 10 ticks above the highest SMA and 10 ticks below the lowest SMA. This is the first non-profitable instance of this report in 15 months, but would have been a push if you cancelled out.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.03.12

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Oct 032012
 


CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.03.12

10/3/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.2
Actual: 55.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 90.12
1st Peak @ 90.28 – 0401 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 89.25 – 0408 (8 min)
103 ticks

Notes: Positive report moderately exceeded the forecast. This caused a 16 tick up spike on the :01 bar, which was unable to go any higher and promptly plummeted. Since the global economic fears took center stage again today, oil was selling off the entire session. This report caused a brief respite for the bulls, but when the report was realized, the bears took over and caused the huge reversal of 103 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled on the long entry at about 90.20, then had an opportunity to close out with about 5-7 ticks as it hovered hitting resistance at the 20 SMA. With the bearish mood of the day and the 20 SMA able to prevent any further upward movement, that is the place to get out before the nose dive.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.06.12

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Sep 062012
 


CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.06.12

9/6/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.5
Actual: 53.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.11
1st Peak @ 97.23 – 0401 (1 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.36 – 0405 (5 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 97.14 – 0407 (7 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Positive report moderately exceeded the forecast. Since the ECB had dominated the news in the previous 2+ hrs with bullish news, the market was in a very short term overbought condition. This restrained the long move. With JOBB you would have filled on the long entry at about 97.17. Since this report often peaks after the :01 bar and it was fairly positive, I would stay in until 4-5 min, looking to exit with 15-20 ticks. After the 2nd peak yielded 25 ticks, the reversal took 2 bars to recapture 22 ticks.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.03.12

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Aug 032012
 


CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.03.12

8/3/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 52.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.12
1st Peak @ 90.79 – 0403 (3 min)
67 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.84 – 0416 (16 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 90.50 – 0420 (20 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Positive report moderately exceeded the forecast. This added fuel to the overall 450 tick rally from the Unemployment report earlier to seek out a peak of 67 ticks in 3 min. With JOBB you would have filled on the long entry at about 90.25. Since this report often peaks in after the :01 bar and it broke through the previous high of 90.31 with ease, I would stay in and place a sell limit at the R3 Pivot at 90.65. That would have given you 40 ticks on the :02 bar and it still yielded another 14 ticks and 19 ticks on the 2nd peak. The reversal fell through the R3 Pivot but only fell to 90.50.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.05.12

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Jul 052012
 


CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.05.12

7/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.1
Actual: 52.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.03
1st Peak @ 86.80 – 0402 (2 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.50 – 0408 (8 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 87.22 – 0422 (22 min)
72 ticks

Notes: Negative report fell short of the forecast. This caused a slow developing short spike on the first and second bars of 23 ticks, a small reversal, then a lower 2nd peak of 53 ticks, then a reversal of 72 ticks. This report is starting to react late as a normal trend. I canceled the trade after not filling in 15 sec, but then it dove and delivered a nice yield. No SMAs were crossed and the 2nd peak terminated just above the S1 Pivot. The reversal fought through the 50 SMA then settled just above the PP Pivot and 100 SMA on top of each other.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.05.12

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Jun 052012
 


CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.05.12

6/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.6
Actual: 53.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 83.87
1st Peak @ 84.19 – 0402 (2 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.36 – 0404 (4 min)
49 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 84.10 – 0406 (6 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast. This should have caused a dull reaction; however, the market made a strong long move due to the dollar dropping hard at the same time. This caused a spike of 23 ticks that was slightly delayed followed by a 2nd peak of 49 ticks. An accidental winner with JOBB, but it is okay to be lucky sometimes. The reversal yielded 26 ticks 2 min after the 2nd peak.

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