5/3/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.5
Actual:53.5K
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.65
1st Peak @ 103.24 – 0401 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 103.47 – 0404 (4 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 103.03 – 0416 (16 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 103.32 – 0520 (20 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Negative report fell well short of the forecast. This caused a downward spike with the trend on the first candle of 41 ticks, a 23 tick reversal, then a lower 2nd peak of 62 ticks, then another reversal of 29 ticks. With JOBB your order would have filled short at about 103.57 with 2 ticks of slippage, then presented an easy opportunity to close out with at least 20 ticks. the subsequent reversal, 2nd peak, and reversal serve as a gap closing then another move lower followed by the final reversal where it came back up to the 13 and 20 SMAs.

4/4/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.9
Actual:56.0K
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 102.92
Peak @ 102.70 – 0402 (2 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 102.90 – 0404 (4 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Negative report fell short of the forecast. This caused a downward spike of 22 ticks. The spike cut through the 200 SMA near the origin, then the 50 SMA about halfway down, and the 100 SMA at the peak. Then the reversal came back up to the 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have gotten in short at 102.91 since the :00 candle dropped a little at the end. Then it slowly dropped and hovered at the 50 SMA before quickly dropping to the 100 SMA. The safe play would be to exit at about 102.80 with the 50 SMA providing support.